ATL: NADINE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND
SHEAR PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSES...SCATTEROMETER DATA...
AND PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NEARBY BUOY 41676 INDICATE NADINE HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.

NADINE IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 295/05
KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER
HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK STEERING PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE
NADINE ON A WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72
HORUS...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...COLD WATER UPWELLING...AND MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DECREASING SHEAR COMBINED WITH
WARMER SSTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSE TO INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 31.4N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 31.6N 27.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 31.7N 29.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 31.5N 30.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 30.9N 31.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 29.5N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 30.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 33.0N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012

NADINE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS MORNING. AN ASCAT OVERPASS SHORTLY
BEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED 35-40 KT WINDS...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS NADINE REMAINS OVER
MARGINAL SSTS...IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS WHEN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND NADINE MOVES OVER
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. LATE IN THE PERIOD....IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR NADINE WILL EXPERIENCE. THE GFS WHICH KEEPS
NADINE FARTHER SOUTH...SUGGESTS A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR PATTERN
THAN THE ECMWF WHICH TAKES THE STORM MORE NORTHWARD AND CLOSER TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND JUST BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6. NADINE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...NADINE IS
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
DIVERGENT THAN YESTERDAY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND
HWRF KEEP NADINE IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND SHOW LITTLE OVERALL
MOTION FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS. ON THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF AND
UKMET TAKE NADINE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. FOR
NOW...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE
AND IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW
FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 31.7N 27.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 31.9N 28.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 31.7N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 31.2N 30.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 30.6N 31.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 29.8N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 30.0N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 32.0N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012

...NADINE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 28.6W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012

BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF NADINE TODAY...AND THERE ARE SOME LOOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS.
HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE WINDS THAT
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE MOST
CURRENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THE OCEANSAT-2 SATELLITE INDICATED
SIMILAR PEAK WINDS AS IN THE MORNING ASCAT PASS. THEREFORE... THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 45 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING
IS UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A LITTLE WARMER WATER AND
INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS VERTICAL SHEAR...SO MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. LATER IN THE PERIOD...STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR
AND THIS SHOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

NADINE APPEARS TO BE TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
280/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKING
NADINE ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS IT COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER MOTION NEAR THE END FORECAST PERIOD...THUS
THE NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 31.7N 28.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.7N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 31.4N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 30.7N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 29.8N 30.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 28.7N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 29.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 30.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012

...NADINE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EVENTUALLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 29.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION...EXTENT...AND
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE. BANDING
FEATURES REMAIN ILL-DEFINED AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE FOUND IN
A CLUSTER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS OF 35 KT AND...EVEN
ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF THESE DATA...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 40 KT AT THIS TIME. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET TO THE LATTER VALUE...WHICH REMAINS ABOVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW CUT OFF TO THE
SOUTH OF NADINE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TRAVERSE A WARMER OCEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS OR SO...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
NOW APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD COURSE WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF ABOUT 280/6. FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE WILL APPARENTLY CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND...BRIEFLY...SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD...
THE STORM SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT AND HEAD NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4-5...SO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS OF
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 32.2N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 29.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 31.5N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 30.7N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 29.9N 30.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 29.0N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 29.5N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 31.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

NADINE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE MID-LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. UW-CIMSS ADT AND NHC AODT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE
T2.6/37 KT AND T2.5/35 KT...AND A 25/0054 UTC OSCAT OVERPASS THAT
ARRIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ISSUED SUPPORTS MAINTAINING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED
TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 260/5. OVERALL...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE NADINE SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN
THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT MOTION...THE FORWARD
SPEED OF NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER SLOW AT AROUND 5 KT.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT AT DAYS
4-5...SO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
NADINE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AFTER 96 HOURS OR SO...SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY LATER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE UNITED STATES. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 32.1N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 31.8N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 31.1N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 30.0N 30.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.0N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 29.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 30.0N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 32.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HenkL]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

...PESKY NADINE FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 30.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

NADINE HAS A CLOUD FREE REGION NEAR THE CENTER IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IN THE SURROUNDING RING IS NOT
VERY DEEP. THIS YIELDS DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT STILL SEEM TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF NADINE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT UW/CIMMS AMSU
AND ADT ESTIMATES. NADINE CONTINUES TO INGEST SOME DRY AIR EVEN
THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NADINE
MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THESE FACTORS FAVOR
SOME STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTH IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS IS
LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST
ONLY CALLS FOR A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

NADINE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
250/5. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD IN A FEW DAYS...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE
PERIOD AS THE LARGE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL IN
THE TRACK PREDICTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUALLY LARGE
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 31.9N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 31.2N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 30.4N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.5N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 28.6N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 28.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 30.0N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 32.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 30.4W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

A BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
HAS WRAPPED AROUND ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYE-LIKE
FEATURE SEEN IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER
OF 3.0 FROM SAB AND RECENT RAW T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS ADT SUGGEST
THAT NADINE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT FOR NOW I PREFER TO
KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT TO SEE IF THE CONVECTION CAN PERSIST.

NADINE APPEARS TO HAVE HESITATED FOR A TIME EARLIER TODAY...BUT
THE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KT.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING SINCE
THIS MORNING. NADINE SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD VERY SOON AS NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD...THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT WESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MORE EASTERN GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...THE NEW TRACK HAS NOT BEEN ADJUSTED VERY
FAR.

EXCEPT FOR SOME DRY AIR THAT NADINE COULD INGEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
SSTS AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE LONG-RANGE GLOBAL MODEL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE ALREADY TWO-WEEK-OLD CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER
THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 31.7N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 31.1N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 30.2N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 29.3N 31.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 28.8N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.2N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 31.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 33.5N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

...NADINE TURNS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 30.4W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

THE CENTRAL REGION OF NADINE CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
BROAD CONVECTION-FREE AREA...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT WHICH IS
BETWEEN THE LATEST ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
LARGE FIELD OF STRATIFORM CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NADINE
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A STABLE AIR MASS...AND NOT A CONDUCIVE
FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
NADINE IS NOT STRONG AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY
WARM...AND SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FARTHER SOUTH. A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
HALT STRENGTHENING.

THE STORM HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING
ABOUT 210/4. THIS MOTION...OR EVEN A SOUTHWARD MOTION...IS LIKELY
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
A STRONG TROUGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. IN 2-3 DAYS...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...NADINE
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. HOWEVER IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL MOVE TO A HIGH ENOUGH LATITUDE TO BRING ABOUT ITS
DEMISE ANY TIME SOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 31.2N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 30.5N 30.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.6N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 28.7N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 28.4N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 29.0N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 31.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 33.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 26 2012

...NADINE HANGING AROUND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 30.5W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.5 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
OR WEST BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 26 2012

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM...ALTHOUGH THE
BANDING HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED. THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS
KEPT AT 40 KT...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH EARLIER OSCAT DATA. PERHAPS
THIS NEW BURST IS A SIGN THAT NADINE IS ENTERING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER SSTS AND THE
SHEAR STAYS MODEST. HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE FIGHTING
SOME DRY STABLE AIR AS SUGGESTED BY A NEARBY STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AT LONG RANGE...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SSTS...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REDUCE THE WINDS SOMEWHAT AFTER DAY 3.

NADINE CONTINUES MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STORM
GRADUALLY TURNING FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO A NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HOWEVER...IMPORTANT SPEED
DIFFERENCES BECOME VERY CLEAR...WITH THE GFS MODEL AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN NOT MOVING NADINE AS FAR SOUTH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM. THIS SOLUTION TRANSLATES INTO NADINE BEING FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTH BY DAY 4 TO AVOID BEING CAUGHT BY YET ANOTHER
RIDGE...AND FINALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COLD
WATERS BY DAY 5. OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE UKMET AND ECMWF...SHOW
THE STORM BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE...AGAIN...WITH LITTLE
MOTION BY 120H. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SEEM OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE
PAST PERFORMANCE OF NADINE...BUT OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS
MOVING THE STORM A LOT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN SPED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS SLOWER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 30.9N 30.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 30.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 29.2N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 28.6N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 28.8N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 30.8N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 33.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 35.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 26 2012

...NADINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 30.3W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.3 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 26 2012

NADINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...
ALONG WITH DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC CIRRUS OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED SEVERAL 40-KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...
AND SUGGESTS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND HAS CONTRACTED TO
ABOUT 40 N MI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT...BASED
ON THE ASCAT DATA.

THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION 180/3. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...FORECASTING NADINE TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD...WESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 72 HR DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF NADINE AND WHETHER THE STORM WILL
RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS THE TROUGH
ACCELERATING NADINE TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS...GFDL...
AND HWRF SHOW THE CYCLONE STALLING NEAR THE 120 HR POINT. THE
UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING NADINE TO THE NORTH...
WITH RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO AGAIN MOVE
SOUTHWARD. THE GFS...IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS
FORECAST...IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION AFTER THE
96 HR POINT. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NADINE IS MOVING OVER INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE IS IN A
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING
THE OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS A RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 36 HR...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A MOTION OVER COOLER
WATERS SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HR...AND IS LOWER THAN THOSE MODELS AFTER
THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 30.6N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 29.8N 30.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 28.9N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 28.7N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 29.4N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 32.0N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 35.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 36.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

...NADINE NOW MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 30.8W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

NADINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING...NOW
PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER OSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED 40 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATED FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
BASED ON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. NADINE IS
PRODUCING GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...DROPSONDES FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT
NORTH OF NADINE SHOW 35-40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING DRY AIR
TOWARD THE STORM. LATER DROPSONDES SHOULD HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH
OF THESE WINDS/DRY AIR ARE ACTUALLY REACHING THE CORE OF NADINE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 200/4. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...FORECASTING NADINE TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD...WESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE GUIDANCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT AFTER 72 HR. WHILE THE
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT NADINE WILL NOT RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THERE CONTINUE TO BE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
THE DIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER 96 HR. THE GFDL...GFS...AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
DUE TO RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. FINALLY...THE HWRF AND
THE CANADIAN SHOW LITTLE MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...AND THEN IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AFTER 96
HR...THE NEW FORECAST IS FOR A VERY SLOW MOTION DURING THIS TIME.
THE NEW TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A COMPLICATED UPPER-LEVEL
WIND PATTERN NEAR NADINE. FIRST IS THE 400 MB NORTHERLY WINDS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACT ON THE STORM. SECOND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N47W...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF NADINE. STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT
ARE CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ALL FORECAST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR NADINE AFTER
36 HR. HOWEVER...THEY ALL SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD
CONTINUE TO SHELTER NADINE FROM THE WORST OF THE SHEAR. FINALLY...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NADINE MERGING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW BY 120 HR...WHICH COULD CHANGE THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
PROBABLY THE LEAST COMPLICATED PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT NADINE
SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48-72
HR. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL AFFECT
NADINE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHORTER WINDOW FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY IN 24-36 HR. IT ALSO CALLS
FOR LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 30.2N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.4N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 28.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 29.0N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 29.7N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 32.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 35.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

...LONG-LIVED NADINE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 31.4W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ZELINSKY

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO A BAND
CURVING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK...SUPPORT HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. WHILE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SURROUND
NADINE...THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TO LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE LGEM MODEL AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NADINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 220/5. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
SLOW EASTWARD MOTION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS...AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND FSSE.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2338 ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.5N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 28.6N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 29.1N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 30.0N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 33.0N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 35.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ZELINSKY

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012

...NADINE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 31.5W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST
IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NADINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA
GLOBAL HAWK SHOWED A LAYER OF 65-70 KT WINDS BETWEEN 850 AND 950 MB
NORTH OF THE CENTER. THESE DATA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE IMPROVED
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE A BIT
HIGHER...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ALTHOUGH ONLY
THE HWRF MAKES NADINE A HURRICANE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ONLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...A BIT ABOVE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
FORECAST SEEMS CONSERVATIVE. SOME WEAKENING COULD BEGIN IN A FEW
DAYS WHEN NADINE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/5. THE STORM SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD LATER TODAY AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ON FRIDAY AS IT REMAINS
STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WHILE THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THE SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY BY DAY 5. THIS SPREAD IS DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW NADINE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW NADINE
RECURVING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS
INSTEAD SHOW NADINE MOVING SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED BY THE TROUGH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCES AND SHOWS LITTLE MOTION AT DAY 5...ALTHOUGH I FEAR
THAT NADINE WILL FIND A WAY TO LINGER EVEN LONGER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 28.9N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 28.5N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 28.6N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 29.4N 34.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 30.7N 35.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 33.5N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 35.4N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 35.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012

...NADINE NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 32.4W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE
HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS A LITTLE RAGGED AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 6 HR
AGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IS FAIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

NADINE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 240/6. THE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THIS WILL ALLOW NADINE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 29N48W. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...GFDL...AND HWRF FORECAST NADINE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES AS A TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STORM. THE UKMET...
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF NADINE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD STEER THE STORM BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW MOTION AT 96-120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 72 HR...AFTER
WHICH IT LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO INTERACT WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N48W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THE TWO SYSTEMS POSSIBLY MERGING BY 96-120 HR. IN ADDITION...SMALL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH
THE STORM. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS NEAR NADINE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD
PARTLY SHIELD NADINE FROM THE RESULTING SHEAR. THE STATISTICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A STRONGER STORM THAN IT DID
DURING THE LAST ADVISORY CYCLE...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS NOW
5-10 KT HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 6 HR AGO. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT NADINE WILL MOVE OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY STAYS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
NEW FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...BUT
IS WEAKER THAN SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 28.7N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 28.6N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 29.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 30.1N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 31.5N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 34.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 35.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 36.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 61
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012

...NADINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 32.8W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.8 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FORECAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 61
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE HAS CHANGED FROM RAGGED TO
WRAPPED-UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EARLIER ATTEMPT AT EYE FORMATION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO
55 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE...AS RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND
CIRA HAVE BEEN 55-65 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT IT IS RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE THERE ARE SIGNS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 255/6. NADINE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THIS WILL ALLOW NADINE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N48W. AFTER 72 HR...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN ITS DIVERGENCE. THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...GFDL...AND HWRF FORECAST NADINE TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
AS A TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STORM. THE UKMET...ECMWF...
CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF NADINE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHICH WOULD STEER
THE STORM BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. SINCE THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A
FORECAST SLOW MOTION AFTER 72 HR.

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO INTERACT WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N48W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THE TWO SYSTEMS POSSIBLY MERGING BY 96-120 HR. IN ADDITION...SMALL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH
THE STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SHEAR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD
PARTLY SHIELD THE STORM...AS WELL AS PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THAT COULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON FORECASTING A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
NADINE REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SHEAR
NADINE COULD ENCOUNTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 28.6N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 28.8N 33.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 29.7N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 31.2N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 32.9N 36.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 35.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 36.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 36.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 62
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012

...TWO-WEEK-OLD NADINE STILL ROAMING THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 33.6W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 62
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT ON IR IMAGES IS THE
BEST IT HAS BEEN IN A WEEK. NADINE LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. NADINE
HAS MANAGED TO AVOID OR REPEL THE SHEAR AND SURVIVED THE COOL
WATERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE A LITTLE BIT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING...BUT NOT MUCH...SHOULD THEN BEGIN IN 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NADINE AND INCREASES THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR.
THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODELS.

NADINE HAS SPENT A LARGE PORTION OF ITS LIFE TRAPPED WITHIN A
BLOCKING PATTERN. IT IS NOW SOUTH OF A RIDGE...AND IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. SOON IT WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE FORCED TO TURN SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE STORY DOES NOT END THERE...AND IT IS DEJA
VU ALL OVER AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH NADINE...BUT IT WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...LEAVING
NADINE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING FLOW AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BE DRIFTING
AIMLESSLY SOUTHWEST AND FAR FROM AZORES. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 28.8N 33.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 29.0N 34.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 30.4N 35.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 32.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 34.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 37.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

...NADINE ALMOST A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 34.1W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.1 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NADINE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
AGAIN LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

NADINE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH SATELLITE IMAGES
HAVING HINTS OF AN EYE ON THE INFRARED CHANNEL DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER
CORE AND A MOSTLY CLOSED EYEWALL. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
60 KT...NEAR THE LATEST CIMSS MICROWAVE ESTIMATES. WHILE THE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE...SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT
60 KT...ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
IF NADINE BECAME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. NADINE WILL ALSO BE MOVING
OVER COLDER WATERS....AND THESE FACTORS SHOULD START A WEAKENING
TREND. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
IN THE LONGER RANGE...CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

NADINE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KT. A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST
48H OF THE FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
NADINE WILL STALL FOR A DAY OR SO AS IT WAITS FOR A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE FORECAST AIDS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THE
LONGER RANGE...WITH THE UKMET NOW JOINING A PACK OF MODELS THAT
INCLUDES THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THIS SOLUTION. THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNUSUAL
SOUTHWARD CYCLONIC LOOP DUE TO NADINE MOVING WITHIN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE
AND THE FACT THAT MORE MODELS ARE TRENDING EASTWARD...THE NHC
FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTIONS FOR DAYS 4
AND 5...BUT IS STILL CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 29.0N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 29.6N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 31.1N 35.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 32.9N 36.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 35.0N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 36.4N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 36.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 37.0N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

...NADINE BECOMES A HURRICANE FOR THE SECOND TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 34.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FORECAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 64
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE HAS DEVELOPED AN
EYE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THIS FEATURE ALSO
APPEARING IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KT...WHILE RECENT AMSU-BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA HAVE BEEN IN THE 60-75 KT
RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...NADINE HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STATUS
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/7. FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO NADINE
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 32N48W. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO MERGE OR
MOVE UNDER THIS LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN BRANCH
OF THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
48 HR...BUT DIVERGES THERAFTER. THE NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS
SHOW A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR. THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF EASTWARD MOTION BY THAT TIME...WITH THE
ECMWF AND UKMET NOW SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SHOWING A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD DRIFT. THE NEW TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SHEAR NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...AS SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE HURRICANE THAT COULD
SHIELD IT FROM THE WORST OF THE FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS SHOW MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN 24 HR OR SO...WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR AND
EVEN COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON A
RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 29.6N 34.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 30.5N 35.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 32.3N 36.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 34.2N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 35.7N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 36.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 36.5N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 65
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

...NADINE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR MOTION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 35.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 65
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

NADINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AN EYE HAS MADE OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...THE EYE AT THE MID-LEVEL SEEMS TO BE ABOUT 25 N MI NNE OF
THE SURFACE CENTER...LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL. REGARDLESS OF
THE TILT AND THE SHEAR...THE CURRENT DVORAK-BASED AND MICROWAVE-
BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KT...AS DOES THE CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS METHOD. THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/7. FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO NADINE
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 32N47W. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO MERGE OR
MOVE UNDER THIS LOW IN 48-72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN BRANCH
OF THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW MOTION FROM
48-96 HR IN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NADINE
COULD PERFORM AN CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THIS TIME AS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL MODELS. AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD NADINE...WHICH
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE OLD THROUGH 96 HR...AND IS A
LITTLE FASTER AT 120 HR. HOWEVER...THE 120-HR POINT IS NOT AS FAR
EAST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SOME ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY
IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER 15-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NO
LONGER SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY INTERACT WITH
NADINE AROUND 48-72 HR...WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY IN TOO POOR OF AGREEMENT ON THIS TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 30.1N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 31.3N 35.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 33.2N 36.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 35.1N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 36.1N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 36.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 36.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 66
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

...NADINE FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST FIVE
MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 35.5W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.5 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NADINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR
A DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 66
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON NADINE THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BIT TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...THE CENTER CONTINUES
TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO
THE WEST AND RESTRICTED EVERYWHERE ELSE. BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS. NADINE HAS
OVERCOME THE SHEAR SO FAR...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK THAT IT
IS NOT GOING TO SURVIVE THE CURRENT 15 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR AND STAY
AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...THE STRONGEST ONE SO FAR...IS DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING
NADINE. MOST LIKELY...THE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH...AND THE
EFFECTS OF COLD WATERS...WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...NADINE COULD ESCAPE THE TROUGH AGAIN AND MANAGE NOT TO
WEAKEN AS MUCH AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

NADINE IS ALREADY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION
FOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST IS HIGH. AFTER THAT...NADINE WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE
BASE OF THE WESTERLIES AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. AT THAT
TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT...AND NADINE COULD THEN
BEGIN TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS ANTICIPATED BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOPEFULLY...NADINE WILL BE CARRIED
EASTWARD BY THESE WINDS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. FOR NOW...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE TENACIOUS
NADINE FOR AT LEAST 5 MORE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 32.4N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 34.6N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 36.0N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 37.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA