ATL: NADINE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

...NADINE MOVING VERY LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 31.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.9 WEST. NADINE IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BY EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

...NADINE BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 31.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

NADINE CONTINUES TO BE A RESILIENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS AN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 45
KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT THE VALUE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH NADINE STAYING OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS. WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER NADINE WILL LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS QUICKLY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE TRANSFORMATION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SOMETHING THAT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THIS
WILL OCCUR.

AFTER MEANDERING DURING MOST OF TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST
THAT NADINE IS STARTING TO TURN EASTWARD. HOWEVER...USING A LONGER
12-HOUR MOTION YIELDS AN INITIAL MOVEMENT OF EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 3 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
TAKING NADINE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IN
STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A DEEPING TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. ONE SOLUTION...IS FOR NADINE TO BE
PULLED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE SECOND SCENARIO IS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE CENTRAL-ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REMAIN BETWEEN THESE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS...BUT THE NEW TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS
IS THE RESULT OF A FASTER SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION PREDICTED BY THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL MOTION FOR NOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 37.1N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 36.6N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 35.5N 28.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1200Z 34.2N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0000Z 32.8N 26.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0000Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0000Z 31.5N 25.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0000Z 31.0N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE DRIFTING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 31.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST A LITTLE FASTER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 30.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST. NADINE IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED BY THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

IT IS HARD TO SAY MUCH MORE ABOUT NADINE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CONTINUES AT 45 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH...PRELIMINARY DROPSONDE DATA FROM
THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT NADINE IS NOT BECOMING POST-TROPICAL AT THIS
TIME...AND IN FACT...IT LOOKS MORE TROPICAL NOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
HAVING SAID THAT...NADINE IS STILL FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIVING THAT IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW.

AS ANTICIPATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORCING NADINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE TROUGH WILL STEER
NADINE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THEN...THE
TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE...AND NADINE WILL LIKELY
BECOME TRAPPED SOUTH OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE LONG
RANGE...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR
TUNES...AND WHEN THE GFS SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN...THE ECMWF SHOWS AN
EASTWARD MOTION...AND VICEVERSA. SINCE THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS TO KEEP NADINE NEARLY STATIONARY
BEYOND 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 36.8N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 36.2N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 35.0N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 33.5N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0600Z 32.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0600Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z 32.0N 25.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 29.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.8 WEST. NADINE IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED BY THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 29.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT44 KNHC 201456
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

NADINE CONTINUES TO HAVE A TROPICAL-TYPE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
BECOMING APPARENT ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KT WHICH IS ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB...BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT AND AMSU ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEFINED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION. CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE GFS
SHOWS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DRAWING SOME ENERGY FROM
BAROCLINIC SOURCES AS WELL AS FROM LATENT HEAT...AND SHOULD BE ABLE
TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
EITHER AS A TROPICAL OR A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.

NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 120/9...IN THE FLOW
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND LEAVE NADINE IN A REGION OF WEAKER
STEERING WINDS. THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCLEAR...AS THE NORMALLY-RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME NOW...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME
FRAME. THE LATEST GFS RUN LIES WELL WEST OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
ECMWF MODEL POSITIONS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS. IN THESE SITUATIONS IT IS
USUALLY BEST TO MOVE THE SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 36.2N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 35.4N 27.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 34.1N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/1200Z 32.3N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/1200Z 32.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/1200Z 32.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1200Z 32.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE STILL PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 28.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER. FLORES IN THE AZORES RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 46 MPH...74 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 28.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF NADINE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AFTER INCREASING A LITTLE EARLIER...CONVECTIVE TOPS
NEAR THE CENTER HAVE WARMED AND DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS NADINE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION VIA LATENT
HEAT RELEASE WHILE LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF BAROCLINIC
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY...NADINE COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL AT
JUST ABOUT ANYTIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISSIPATES. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NADINE HAS JOGGED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LONG TERM
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 110/09. OTHER THAN AN EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. DURING THIS
TIME NADINE SHOULD BE STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE LATEST GFS NOW SHOWS A QUICKER EASTWARD
MOTION...AS NADINE ACCELERATES AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS AN EASTWARD
MOTION BY DAY 5...THIS MODEL HAS TRENDED ABOUT 500 MILES WESTWARD
COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...THE HWRF SHOWS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT. THE LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN ALMOST EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN AN
EASTWARD AND WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION BY DAY 5. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW NO
MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 36.1N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 35.3N 27.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 34.0N 26.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 32.9N 25.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/1800Z 32.5N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/1800Z 32.5N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/1800Z 32.5N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1800Z 32.5N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE HESITATES AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 28.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM S OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST. NADINE
APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN. HOWEVER...AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AT NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 28.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BY SATURDAY.

RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...A CONTINUATION OF TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN



TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INCREASING NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF NADINE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS LIKELY
RELATED TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES SINCE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
THE AZORES AND AN 2224 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE A FRONTAL ZONE
IMPINGING ON THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL 50 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND
BARBS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE PRESUMABLY
RELATED TO AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE STORM.

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE TRACK OF NADINE MAY BE
VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 120/08. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL BE STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW DOWN
THROUGH 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. AS IN THE LAST FEW RUNS...THE GFS
SHOWS MORE INTERACTION WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE STORM WHICH RESULTS IN NADINE MOVING MORE RAPIDLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF/UK MET HAVE A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WITH LESS AMPLITUDE AND EITHER
KEEP NADINE MEANDERING OR MOVING MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THAN THE GFS. SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STARK DICHOTOMY IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ONLY A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST
IS DEPICTED DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NADINE ATTEMPTING TO OUTRUN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ENCROACHING ON IT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT THIS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.
THE TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW COULD NOW BE MORE
IMMINENT...AND POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOONER
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEN AGAIN...NADINE COULD TEMPORARILY
FIND ITSELF SECLUDED FROM THE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT...OVER
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...AND IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
DUE TO A STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OF NADINE...THE LATTER POSSIBILITY IS TREATED AS A LOWER
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 35.4N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 34.5N 27.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 33.2N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/1200Z 32.5N 25.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 23/0000Z 32.4N 24.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 24/0000Z 32.4N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0000Z 32.4N 23.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0000Z 32.4N 23.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

...NADINE FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 27.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...A CONTINUATION OF TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

...NADINE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 27.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...NADINE WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES TODAY
AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD THAT NADINE WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...A CONTINUATION OF TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

NADINE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE...AND ITS
FUTURE IS AS UNCERTAIN AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THE CENTER IS DEVOID
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ONLY CONVECTION IS WITHIN A BAND IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SINCE I DO NOT HAVE ANY NEW DATA...AND THE
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE VIGOROUS ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. NADINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AN APROACHING COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER COOL WATERS.

NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AZORES
SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NADINE WILL LIKELY
BECOME TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND BEGINS TO MEANDER AGAIN.
THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IS TO FORECAST IF NADINE WILL BE
POST-TROPICAL...SUBTROPICAL...OR WILL ACQUIRE AGAIN MORE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NADINE
WILL BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT ANY SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 35.1N 27.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 34.0N 26.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 33.0N 25.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/1800Z 32.5N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 23/0600Z 32.5N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 24/0600Z 32.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0600Z 32.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0600Z 32.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

...NADINE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 27.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/H. HOWEVER...A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AZORES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
THAT NADINE WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

...NADINE MOVING SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 27.5W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

NADINE REMAINS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL ANALYSES AND PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS WARM CORE...WHILE
SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
NADINE IS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AZORES.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A RAGGED BAND OF WARMING CLOUD
TOPS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DECREASE IN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SSTS AND DRY
AIR THAT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE INNER PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
A 1224 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 40 TO 45 KT WINDS NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS
EXPECTED SOON...POSSIBLY BY LATER TODAY IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
DOES NOT RETURN. AFTER TRANSITION...ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.

NADINE MOVED A LITTLE WEST OF DUE SOUTH EARLIER THIS MORNING...
LIKELY DUE TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...NADINE HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD RECENTLY...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/09. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO
THE EAST...NADINE SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD NADINE WILL AGAIN BE CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. THIS FOLLOWS THE GENERAL
TREND SEEN IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM LARGE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS ABOUT HOW MUCH NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DUE TO THE RECENT SOUTHWARD JOG OF NADINE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT 60 TO 70 NAUTICAL MILES TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 34.1N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 32.9N 26.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 31.8N 25.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/0000Z 31.4N 25.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 23/1200Z 31.4N 24.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 24/1200Z 31.6N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1200Z 32.0N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/1200Z 32.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

...NADINE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 27.3W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE THAT ARE AFFECTING THE AZORES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

...NADINE TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 27.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE PORTUGUESE WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM NADINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.0 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE AZORES
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE THAT ARE AFFECTING THE AZORES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


SUBTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

NADINE HAS UNDERGONE AN INTERESTING TRANSFORMATION DURING THE PAST
DAY OR SO. WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVERALL...A BAND OF
MODERATE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
STORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER
OF NADINE...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONS
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS HAD RECENTLY. THE STORM HAS A LARGER-THAN-
AVERAGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
DISTRIBUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS TEMPTING TO DECLARE NADINE
POST-TROPICAL WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO
FIT MOST OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT
FROM AN UNUSUAL WAY OF GETTING THERE. THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS
TIME IS THAT NADINE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
REMAINS 50 KT.

NADINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS IT IS STEERED BY
A TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY...HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED IN A
COUPLE DAYS TIME AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT TROUGH IN ABOUT 5
DAYS WILL FINALLY CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ANY REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE SOUTHWARD
TRACK EARLY ON...SMALL CHANGES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST...AND
AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT DAY 5.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING AND IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
VERY COLD UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS...
ALTHOUGH THE WATERS SHOULD BE WARMING WITH TIME. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR NADINE...WHICH COULD
FACILITATE A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS. IT WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
DECAYED INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 33.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 31.6N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 30.6N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 30.5N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 30.8N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 31.7N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 32.5N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 32.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

...NADINE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...REGENERATION POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 26.6W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.6 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KH/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE THAT ARE AFFECTING THE AZORES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

WHILE NADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WARM CORE AND A VIGOROUS
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST 15 HOURS OR SO. WHAT
CONVECTION THAT CURRENTLY REMAINS IS IN POORLY-DEFINED BANDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
REALLY FIT THE DEFINITION OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO IT IS
DECLARED TO BE POST-TROPICAL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50
KT DUE TO A LACK OF DATA NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 165/11. NADINE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST. A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE TWO FUTURE TRACK SCENARIOS FOR
NADINE OR ITS REMNANTS. THE FIRST IS THAT ENOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO STEER IT GENERALLY EASTWARD. THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE SECOND IS THAT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND STEERS IT IN A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS... MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH WILL COME TO PASS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE EASTWARD SCENARIO FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A SLOW FORWARD MOTION DUE TO THE VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 24 HOURS.

THIS MAY NOT BE THE LAST HURRAH FOR NADINE. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
TOWARD WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
THE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND RE-ACQUIRE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW
A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD UNDER THE
RIDGE. EVEN IF THIS TRANSITION DOES NOT OCCUR...THE MAJORITY OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN NADINE AS A VIGOROUS CYCLONE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS CHANGED
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS WILL BY THE LAST ADVISORY ON NADINE BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 31.9N 26.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/1200Z 31.0N 26.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 23/0000Z 30.5N 25.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1200Z 30.7N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/0000Z 31.4N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0000Z 32.5N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 26/0000Z 32.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 27/0000Z 33.0N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

...LONG-LIVED NADINE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 25.6W
ABOUT 515 MI...835 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT NADINE HAS REGAINED TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST. NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2
MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS THINNED A BIT THIS
MORNING...THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE PRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE
AND TROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
NADINE IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. DROPSONDE DATA
FROM AN ONGOING NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KT. A DROPWINDSONDE NEAR THE CENTER AROUND 1030
UTC MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 989.9 MB WITH STRONG WINDS...SO THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB.

NADINE DRIFTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED. UNLIKE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT NADINE WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

NADINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND NADINE SHOULD BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER BY THEN. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY 48 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS NADINE ATTAINING HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 30.6N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 30.7N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 31.0N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 31.4N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 31.5N 30.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 30.9N 31.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 30.5N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 32.5N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

...NADINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 26.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.1 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE HAS GRADUALLY WANED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INGESTION
OF SOME DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION AND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 50 KT. NADINE HAD BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...BUT IS
NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE TURNS NADINE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4
TO 5 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AS NADINE REMAINS IN MODERATE SHEAR AND OVER MARGINAL
SSTS. IN ADDITION....DRY AIR APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED AROUND MUCH
OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP. ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS FOR NADINE TO NOT
REGAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL ONCE AGAIN.
THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES NADINE WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF WARMER SSTS...LESS SHEAR...AND SLIGHTLY
MORE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IS THE SAME AS THE EARLIER FORECAST BY DAY 5.
THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IS CLOSE TO
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 31.0N 26.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 31.2N 26.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 31.5N 28.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 31.7N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 31.6N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 30.9N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 31.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 33.5N 37.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 26.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORM
AND IT IS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS TC INTENSITY
CONSENSUS...SATCON...WHICH IS A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
MICROWAVE ESTIMATES. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INFLUENCING THE CIRCULATION. THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SOON BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 200 MB
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF NADINE CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD IN
A DAY OR SO...WITH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE SHOW THE SHEAR
DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY IN 36-48 HOURS. THUS...ASSUMING THAT
NADINE IS ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO SURVIVE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

NADINE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NEAR 290/3. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS MORE OR LESS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST- TO SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
ABOUT 72 HOURS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
AS A RESULT...NADINE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY
DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS ALSO
BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 31.0N 26.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 31.4N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 31.6N 28.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 31.6N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 31.3N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 30.5N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 31.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 33.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH