ATL: LESLIE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF LESLIE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF ABOUT 20 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE NOW MORE
RESEMBLES A CURVED BAND PATTERN. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO CAUSE THE
CIRCULATION TO BE VERTICALLY TILTED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 30 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE
POOR VERTICAL ALIGNMENT OF LESLIE AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH DURING THAT TIME. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR LESLIE TO GAIN
STRENGTH. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BETWEEN LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE.

LESLIE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT AND IS LOCATED
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE LESLIE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LESLIE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO FIRST TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TV15 AND TVCA.

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 25.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 25.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 26.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 26.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 26.8N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 27.5N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 29.2N 64.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...LESLIE BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 62.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION...WHICH MAY BE ERRATIC AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND LESLIE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
BERMUDA...THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF LESLIE
DURING THE DAY...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISPLACED
TO THE WEST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER. THE CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 3.5 AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED
BIAS-CORRECTED WINDS OF 50-55 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 55 KT. 20 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS
ANALYZED BY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSIS...CONTINUES TO BE
THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY...THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI-RSMAS OCEAN
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE HEAT CONTENT OF THE OCEAN BELOW LESLIE
IS HIGH...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF COLD WATER UPWELLING FROM
THE SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL
FORECAST. BY DAY 5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT
BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN AT THIS TIME.

WHILE THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY...LESLIE CONTINUES TO DRIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THE LONG-
TERM INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IMPARTING A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY MOTION. LESLIE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS
IT MOVES AROUND THIS RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD TRACK
THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED ACCORDINGLY.

THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON A 1320 UTC ASCAT
PASS.

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 25.3N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 25.7N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.1N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 26.5N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 26.9N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 27.5N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...LESLIE INCHING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 62.8W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION...WHICH MAY BE ERRATIC AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND LESLIE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
BERMUDA...THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN BURSTING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
LESLIE FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON THE
SHAPE OF A NASCENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...BUT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT CONTINUES TO PUSH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS
EASTWARD. TRMM AND SSM/IS IMAGES...FROM 2223 AND 0013 UTC
RESPECTIVELY...SUGGEST SOME RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AS
EVIDENCED BY THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE...BUT THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED 20-30 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A
0000 UTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE-SCALE
ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER LESLIE. THE DEEP OCEANIC MIXED LAYER ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE SLOW-MOVING STORM SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS
OF UPWELLING. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND THE TIME
THE SHEAR RELAXES...BUT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD INITIALLY
BE SLOW DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

LESLIE APPEARS TO HAVE JOGGED A BIT TO THE LEFT TODAY...AND IS
PLODDING ALONG TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 345/02. THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES.
WHILE THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A NET NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW OVER
LESLIE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MAKE ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS DUE TO A WEAK BLOCKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH. AS THAT RIDGE SHIFTS AND BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST IN 48-72 HOURS...LESLIE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD MORE
QUICKLY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS SAME RIDGE AND AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST ON DAYS
4-5 WILL BEGIN TO EJECT LESLIE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BIT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 48 HOURS IN DEFERENCE TO THE
LATEST GFS RUN...BUT IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE EAST AT LATER TIMES.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL TVCA CONSENSUS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS FORECAST TO GROW FURTHER
IN SIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE
CYCLONE...IN COMBINATION WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP
TO GENERATE LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 25.2N 62.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 25.6N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 26.1N 63.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 26.7N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 27.5N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 30.0N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 35.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012

AFTER DEVELOPING A CDO-LIKE FEATURE EARLIER...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...LIKELY
DUE TO CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STEADIER INTENSIFICATION AFTER THAT TIME...AND
THE NHC FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IVCN
CONSENSUS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED A BIT TO THE
WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF 340/02 IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. LESLIE IS CAUGHT IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING BETWEEN TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...A TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF
LESLIE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE FORWARD
SPEED AND HEADING LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESLIE TURNING A LITTLE TO
THE EAST OF DUE NORTH BY DAY 5 WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THE NEW NHC TRACK IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A
LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE RIGHT AT DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST TVCA CONSENSUS AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 25.4N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 25.8N 63.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 26.2N 63.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 26.6N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 26.9N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 28.2N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 31.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 37.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012

THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING LESLIE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE TO DEVELOP
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 0944 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS DISPLACED ABOUT
12-18 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLOWLY
ALONG A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR
SO DUE TO A BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.
AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST...
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE LESLIE TOWARD THE NORTH BY 96
HOURS...AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND
REMAINS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE
CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

LESLIE IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR
THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HOURS. THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR IS
COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LESLIE COULD INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY THAN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN LEVEL OFF IN 72-96
HOURS DUE TO UPWELLING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SYMPTOMS OF NEGATIVE FEEDBACK CAUSED BY THE GFS MODEL 200 MB
WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS...ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS
GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THIS STRENGTHENING TREND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED IN THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 25.7N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 26.8N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 27.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 32.4N 64.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 10/1200Z 39.5N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
145 PM AST WED SEP 5 2012

CORRECTED LATITUDE IN SUMMARY INFORMATION

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE LESLIE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
A HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUMMARY OF 145 PM AST...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 62.5W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

...HURRICANE LESLIE DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH MAY BE ERRATIC AT TIMES...IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND LESLIE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE-WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF LESLIE...HAS RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 51 MPH...82
KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LESLIE HAS EXPANDED BY MORE THAN 100 NMI TO
THE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...INDICATING THAT THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE HAS DECREASED. A BANDING EYE
FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 1700
UTC...BUT A RECENT BURST OF EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE
EYE. SSMIS AND TRMM MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL EYE HAS DEVELOPED AND A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE COULD
BE UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN
AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.3/72 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/02 KT. LESLIE HAS WOBBLED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THAT
ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY JUST DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE EYE. THE
LATEST GFS FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...WHILE
THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. SINCE THESE TWO MODELS
ARE NOW CONVERGING CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH
LIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS. COLD WATER UPWELLING
BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND THE
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LURKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE NEGATIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS A
RESULT OF THE GFS MODEL CREATING A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE...WHICH
FURTHER GENERATES SIGNIFICANT 200 MB WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE
ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A STRONG
HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS
REMAINS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 25.9N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.1N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 26.8N 63.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 27.2N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 29.3N 64.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 34.0N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 42.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 62.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REAMIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049 TO THE NORTHWEST OF LESLIE RECENTLY
REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

RECENT TRMM AND SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS NOT
FORMED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AND IN FACT...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED. THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION OF
WESTERLY SHEAR AS WELL...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7/4.3.

BASED ON RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE FIXES...THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
010/2 KT. LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD CREEP FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE HURRICANE
SHOULD GAIN SOME NORTHWARD MOMENTUM BY DAY 3 ONCE A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS MODEL HAS
SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST ON THIS CYCLE AND IS THE EASTERNMOST AND
SLOWEST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. SINCE THIS
HAS NOT YET TURNED INTO A CONSISTENT TREND...THE NHC FORECAST IS
BEING KEPT CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

LESLIE IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A CROSS SECTION BASED ON GFS MODEL DATA SHOWS AIR WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT ABUTTING AGAINST THE
CIRCULATION IN THE 250-500 MB LAYER. SINCE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT LESLIE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE DRY
AIR COULD CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THE SEA SURFACE BENEATH LESLIE IS
COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING...AND THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE AS LONG
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES SO SLOWLY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 26.2N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 26.4N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.8N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 27.1N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.7N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 30.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 35.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 44.0N 59.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE REMAINS RAGGED...WITH MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW
APPEARS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR
FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LESLIE.
IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF MOTION IS RESULTING IN SOME COOLING OF THE
SEA SURFACE NEAR THE CYCLONE...AS EVIDENCED BY A 1C SST DECREASE IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS AT NOAA BUOY 41049. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
65 KT BASED ON THE LASTEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR...AND
UPWELLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
LESLIE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LESLIE HAS HARDLY MOVED OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 360/01 AS THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND THE TREND OF
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE SLOWER MOTION OF LESLIE
EARLY ON AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND/OR LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS IS ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS THE TROUGH MISSING
LESLIE ENTIRELY. AT THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GFDL...WHICH IS A FAST
OUTLIER THAT SHOWS LESLIE BEING CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AT END OF
THE PERIOD. THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL FASTER
AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-
RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0153 UTC ASCAT PASS
AND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 40149. LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE
THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 26.3N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 26.5N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 26.7N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 27.1N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 27.7N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 31.0N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 43.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...LESLIE HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE LAST NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 62.4W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE
LESLIE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. LESLIE HAS
BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD
DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT LESLIE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ON FRIDAY.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS BARELY A
HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. LESLIE HAS A VERY
LARGE CIRCULATION BUT LACKS AN INNER CORE. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED IN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY STUBBORN IN FORECASTING A RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...
ALTHOUGH THAT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET. HOWEVER...GIVING CREDIT TO
THESE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL
MODELS ALSO DECREASE THE SHEAR...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT LESLIE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE COOLER WATERS
WHICH RESULTED FROM THE UPWELLING.

LESLIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND
CONSEQUENTLY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OR MEANDERING NORTHWARD
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO REDEVELOP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF LESLIE AND BRING A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LESLIE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THE TRACK MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORWARD SPEED...
THE GENERAL MODEL TREND IS FOR A NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NEAR BERMUDA
BUT THE CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS SHOW A
TRACK EAST OF BERMUDA.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 26.4N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 26.8N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 28.2N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 31.2N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 35.0N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 40.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Leslie seems like the central Atlantic's Isaac...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...LESLIE HESITATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 62.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...BUT LESLIE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ON
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. A NOAA BOUY...41049...REPORTED A 1-MIN SUSTAINED
WIND OF 59 MPH...95 KM/H EARLIER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION DURING THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE SMALLER. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH GIVES THE
APPEARANCE OF BETTER ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT
SHOW A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE AT THIS TIME. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT KEEPING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS.
SINCE LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...IT IS PRODUCING UPWELLING
RESULTING IN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. THE
UPWELLING IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
UNDISTURBED WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEGINNING IN 24 HOURS.

LESLIE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS...AND CONSEQUENTLY IT HAS REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY
ALL DAY. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS OR OTHER
GUIDANCE THAT LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER ANY TIME SOON. IN
FACT...THE NHC FORECAST MOVES LESLIE NORTHWARD ONLY 120 NAUTICAL
MILES IN TWO DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AND THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORCE THE
HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
GLOBAL MODELS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE WHOLE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT EASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS TO MAKE THAT EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT MORE GRADUALLY.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 26.6N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 27.0N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 27.5N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 28.5N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 32.0N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 35.5N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 41.5N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...LESLIE REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 62.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...BUT LESLIE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ON
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE MEAN
WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...LESLIE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 62.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A NORTHWARD
DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WHILE SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 54 MPH...86 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 65 MPH...104 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LESLIE ON
FRIDAY MORNING.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
LESLIE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING
TO FEATURE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -70C. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGES PRIOR TO 0000 UTC DID NOT
SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE OR EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...WHILE SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE 60-65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

LESLIE HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT REMAINS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT-TO-NON-EXISTENT STEERING CURRENTS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR AND ALLOW LESLIE TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION. IN THE
LONGER TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND REACH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HR.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE NORTHWARD AND THEN EVENTUALLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL NOTABLY
FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HR COMPROMISES
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...
AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LESLIE HAS MOVED SLOWLY ENOUGH FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS TO HAVE
UPWELLED COLD OCEAN WATER TO THE SURFACE. REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY
41049 INDICATE THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE HAS DECREASED FROM
29C TO 26C-27C...WHILE MICROWAVE-BASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ESTIMATES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES OF 24C-25C UNDER THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE. AT BEST...LITTLE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL
LESLIE MOVES NORTH OF THE COLD WATER...AND SOME WEAKENING IS
POSSIBLE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 12-36 HR IS REDUCED FROM
THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD
WATER. FROM 36-72 HR...LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS AND
STRENGTHEN...AND THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. INCREASING SHEAR AND THE START OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AFTER THE 72 HR
POINT.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 26.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 26.8N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 27.2N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 28.0N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 29.3N 62.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 33.0N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 37.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 43.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 62.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
160 MILES...260 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
MEAN WIND OF 54 MPH...86 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...101
KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LESLIE
FRIDAY MORNING.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE LESLIE LATER THIS MORNING.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE WIND OF 60 MPH...97 KM/H...
AND A GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE EARLIER CDO FEATURE HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND
MOST OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER IN SOME RAGGED BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65
KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING LESLIE LATER THIS
MORNING AND PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE.

SATELLITE WINDS AND ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE CYCLONE. THE
SHEAR ALONG WITH THE DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE INNER CORE AND
COOLING SSTS DUE TO UPWELLING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...AS LESLIE
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD WARMER WATERS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT
48 AND 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IVCN CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE FIXES AND WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 SUGGEST
THAT LESLIE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A STEADIER NORTHWARD
MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF LESLIE BEGINS
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY. AFTER 48 HOURS...AN ACCELERATION
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS LESLIE
INTERACTS WITH A COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN FORWARD SPEED AND HEADING...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE GFDL...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FASTER AND LEFT TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE END
RESULT IS THAT THE LATEST TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NHC FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 26.7N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.9N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.6N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 28.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 30.1N 62.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 33.7N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 38.5N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 46.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE STALLS AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 62.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. LESLIE HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING LESLIE.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

LESLIE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TOO LONG AND THE OCEAN BENEATH HAS
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...ONE OF THE AXBT SONDES LAUNCHED FROM
THE NOAA PLANE CURRENTLY IN LESLIE MEASURED A SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE OF 24.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THE
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
981 MB...BUT BOTH SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. ONCE LESLIE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
COOL POOL IT HAS CREATED FOR ITSELF...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LESLIE SHOULD HAVE
LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO RESULTING IN
LESLIE BEING NEARLY STATIONARY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.8N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 28.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 29.0N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 30.5N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 33.3N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 45.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 62.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD ABOUT 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWARD
TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESLIE IS A LITTLE WEAKER. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY...BUT LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS THIS
WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE FINALLY ON THE MOVE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 62.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL BE PASSING
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT
LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT LESLIE HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AT 55 KNOTS.

THE CENTER IS PASSING JUST EAST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 WHICH REPORTED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW A LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...
SUGGESTING THAT LESLIE STILL LACKS AN INNER CORE. SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...AS WELL AS SST MICROWAVE DATA...ARE INDICATING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS TO THE NORTH OF
LESLIE. SINCE THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED...ONCE LESLIE MOVES OVER
THESE WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
THAT IT WILL REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC THIS YEAR THAT HAVE REACHED HURRICANE
INTENSITY HAVE DONE SO AS THEY APPROACH 30 DEGREES NORTH AND NOT IN
THE DEEP TROPICS.

STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
SINCE THE GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 27.4N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 28.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 28.8N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 30.2N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 47.0N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA