ATL: LESLIE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 301432
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 43.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 43.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 42.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.8N 45.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.9N 48.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.1N 52.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 27.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 43.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT32 KNHC 301432
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...




WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT42 KNHC 301435
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAND. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS 30 KT...WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF TAFB AND SAB 1200 UTC
ESTIMATES... THOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON THE
LATEST PICTURES. AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM WATERS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY SEEMS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WILDLY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOWN BY THE GFS MATERIALIZES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 275/17. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...PARTIALLY RELATED TO
KIRK. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOMEWHAT AS KIRK MOVES
OUT TO SEA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-70W IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 14.1N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.9N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.1N 52.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 27.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

CAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
2100 UTC THU AUG 30 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 45.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 45.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 44.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.3N 47.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.0N 56.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 26.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 28.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 45.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT32 KNHC 302036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...LESLIE STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 45.3W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LESLIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT42 KNHC 302036
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

LESLIE HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES
AND INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 40 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.
GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE STORM
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THERE ARE EVEN A COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE ROBUST LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WHILE THE TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF LESLIE BECAME STRONGER
THAN FORECAST IN THE THREE-TO-FIVE DAY PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/18. LESLIE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS
EXPECTED TO DIG BETWEEN 60W-70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE
THE CYCLONE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME
VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STILL A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING RATHER LARGE...SO THE WIND
RADII FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.3N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 19.0N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 22.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 26.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 28.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...LESLIE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 46.8W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...LESLIE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LESLIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
NOAA BUOY 41041 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004.1 MB...29.65
INCHES...AS THE CENTER PASSED TO THE NORTH.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
LESLIE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
MASS...MOST LIKELY DUE TO LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED 1004 MB AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AS THE CENTER PASSED TO THE NORTH.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. LESLIE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF
OF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO A CUT-OFF LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO BREAK THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVELS...
AND EXTEND FAR ENOUGH VERTICALLY DOWNWARD TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AT
700-850 MB. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AFTER THE 48 HR
POINT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 96 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK GUIDANCE
STARTS TO DIVERGE AT 120 HR REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LESLIE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES...AND BASED ON THIS SPREAD...THE TRACK
FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOTION NEAR THAT
TIME.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LESLIE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SLOW OR HALT
INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A LITTLE
LESS STRENGTHENING THAN FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOST NOTABLY
AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING LESLIE BECOMING A
HURRICANE BY 24 HR AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FROM
72-120 HR.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING VERY LARGE...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT WIND FIELD FORECAST. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN SIZE APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 72 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 14.7N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 15.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 16.7N 51.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.9N 54.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 19.3N 56.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 22.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 29.0N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING LESLIE IS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. THE STORM IS PRODUCING
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS MIGRATED FARTHER INTO THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT.

LESLIE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 285/14 KT...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO NEARLY VANISH BY DAY 3 AS LESLIE BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. BECAUSE OF THE COLLAPSE IN THE STEERING FLOW...LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BUT SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY DAYS 4
AND 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
BUT THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT ON DAYS 4 AND
5. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS THEREFORE SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT IT IS STILL EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA ON DAY 5.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND LESLIE IS IMPROVING...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM SHOULD HAVE AN OUTFLOW PATTERN
BENEFICIAL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENDS UP A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON DAYS 4
AND 5...HOWEVER. THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAINTAINS A GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN ON THOSE DAYS...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST HEDGES ON THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE
MAJORITY OF THESE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...AND INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 15.2N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 16.1N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 17.4N 52.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.6N 55.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 19.9N 57.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 23.0N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 25.5N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 27.0N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 49.1W
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY LATE
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

LESLIE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS
CAUSING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THIS STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOW THE CENTER
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...SO THE
WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 55 KT. THE SHEAR HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
LESLIE LACKS ANY CENTRAL CORE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT
TERM. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR LESLIE IN A FEW DAYS...THE POSITIONING OF LESLIE
WITHIN THAT ANTICYCLONE APPEARS LESS FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY...
WITH WESTERLY SHEAR POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IS QUITE A
BIT LOWER THAN A COUPLE MODEL CYCLES AGO...AND THIS TOOL HAS BEEN A
GOOD PERFORMER THIS YEAR. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND
RESULTS IN A REDUCTION TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15...A BIT FASTER AND TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. LESLIE REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK AS IT
MOVES BENEATH A NARROW RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE KIRK. THE
RIDGE BREAKS BETWEEN 60W-65W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IN A FEW DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED ON THE
TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE NHC FORECAST UP TO THAT TIME. IT NOW APPEARS THAT LESLIE
WILL MISS A TROUGH FORECAST TO DIVE OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA...AND
WILL BE CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS IN THE LONG
RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE
NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THOSE
TIMES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 16.2N 49.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.2N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.5N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 19.6N 56.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 20.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 23.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 25.9N 62.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 27.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 51.0W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY LATE
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

THE STORM LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES SHOWING THE CENTER BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERCAST. INTENSITY ESTIMATES...HOWEVER...ARE UNCHANGED...SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 55 KT. WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT-TO-MODERATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH MOVING WEST OF THE CENTER...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOW
LESLIE ONLY AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM
MODEL. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LESLIE FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE LONG TERM...BUT ITS LIKELY SLOW MOTION AT THAT
TIME COULD CAUSE UPWELLING UNDER THE STORM...SO THE NHC FORECAST
WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES GIVES A GOOD INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
295/16. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE
RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...PERHAPS
INITIALLY DUE TO THE RIDGE BETWEEN KIRK AND LESLIE BEING A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A FEW DAYS
TIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL NHC PREDICTION
IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO COME CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS... ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF
THE NEW FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 16.7N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.9N 55.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 20.1N 58.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 21.5N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 24.1N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 26.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 27.0N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 52.8W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LESLIE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY LATE
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

LESLIE IS PRODUCING A LARGE CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. HOWEVER...AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 2318 UTC
AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0030 UTC INDICATED THAT THE CENTER IS STILL
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO CONTINUING
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB....AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 55 KT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR CONTINUES...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/18. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER LESLIE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
CREATED BY A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HR IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER 72 HR AS LESLIE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THE
GFS...GFDL...HWRF...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A SLOW EASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE SHOW A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
AFTER 72 HR. AS A RESULT...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BY 120 HR.
HOWEVER...IT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND IT IS UNCLEAR IF LESLIE WILL FIND A
REALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME.
FROM 48-96 HR...THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND
IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE/STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH AT
THE VERY LEAST SHOULD STOP DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 96 HR...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS
A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIME. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT 72 AND 96
HR...AND SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FROM 96-120 HR. THE FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 17.4N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.3N 54.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 19.7N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 21.1N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 22.6N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 26.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 28.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...LESLIE STRUGGLING AGAINST SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT LESLIE REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 60 KT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. IT SEEMS LIKE
THE WINDOW FOR LESLIE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLOSING AS
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED. THIS SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN CIRRUS
CLOUD MOTIONS NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ANALYSES
FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR WILL PERSIST OR EVEN INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LESLIE IS CAUGHT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED DURING THAT
TIME...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SHEAR
COULD RELAX IN A FEW DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN
THE LONG RANGE...CONTINUING THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES REQUIRE A REPOSITIONING OF LESLIE ABOUT
30 N MI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES...GIVING A LONG-TERM MOTION OF
ABOUT 290/16. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AS IT MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THEN TURN NORTHWARD IN A FEW DAYS AS IT NEARS A BREAK IN
THE RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER IN GENERAL...SHOWING
ENOUGH RIDGING EAST OF LESLIE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM TOTALLY
STALLING OUT AS SUGGESTED IN EARLIER MODEL CYCLES. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE
TO THE CENTER REPOSITIONING.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1244
UTC ASCAT PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 18.3N 55.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 19.4N 57.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 22.7N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 24.1N 62.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 29.0N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...LESLIE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 57.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT.
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SOMEWHAT INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. CURIOUSLY...THE MODELS DO
NOT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MUCH MORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE LESLIE MOVES
THROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING A STEADY STATE
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF LESLIE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THAT TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST STILL LEAVES OPEN THE CHANCE THAT CYCLONE WILL RECOVER IN
A FEW DAYS TIME DUE TO A POSSIBLE LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.

VISIBLE FIXES GIVE A MOTION OF ABOUT 295/16. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AS LESLIE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
LATE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GLOBAL MOTION ARE THEN CONSISTENT ABOUT THE
CYCLONE TURNING BY EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TRACK A BIT FASTER AND LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OF MANY
FEATURES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA...AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 19.2N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 20.3N 59.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 21.9N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 23.6N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 24.9N 62.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 26.3N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 27.5N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 29.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

THE CENTER OF LESLIE REMAINS SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BEEN
DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN T3.0/45 KT
AND T3.5/55 KT. A 02/0134 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A PEAK WIND
VECTOR OF 51 KT SURROUNDED BY SEVERAL 50-KT VECTORS. ADJUSTING FOR
THE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF ASCAT WINDS YIELDS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF
NEAR 60 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

LESLIE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...OR 310/13 KT. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LESLIE GRADUALLY TURNING
NORTHWARD AND ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BETWEEN 60-65W LONGITUDE. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE BROAD
TROUGH/UPPER LOW CREATING THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF LESLIE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING AROUND THE
CYCLONE THAT WILL CAUSE LESLIE TO SLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. AT 36 AND 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
WEAKEN SOME. ASSUMING LESLIE SURVIVES THE DAY 2 HOSTILE SHEAR
CONDITIONS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO
IMPROVE AND BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW MUCH LESLIE WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE DAY 2-3 TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS ALONG
THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE SHIPS-LGEM
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON WIND
DATA FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASS...WHICH CAPTURED THE
ENTIRE CIRCULATION OF LESLIE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 20.8N 59.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 22.0N 60.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 23.7N 62.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 25.0N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 25.9N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 26.9N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 28.0N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

...CENTER OF LESLIE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 61.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH..IS FORECAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

LESLIE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
BECAME WELL-SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO
A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS WAS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER AND THEY HAVE LIKELY
PASSED VERY CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY 41044 THIS MORNING. THE BUOY HAS
REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 43-47 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OCCURRING IN THE
CONVECTION...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 55 KT.

NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PLAGUING LESLIE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
STRONGER BETWEEN 24 AND 60 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO
WEAKEN A LITTLE. DURING THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES BETTER IN EVOLVING SHEAR CONDITIONS. AT DAYS 4 AND
5...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. AS A RESULT...THE
NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LESLIE WAS LOCATED A LITTLE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THAT IT HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NORTHWESTWARD OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING LESLIE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURNING IT
NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BY-PASS LESLIE WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...PARTIALLY DUE TO THE
MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION. THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 21.3N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 23.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 24.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 25.5N 63.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.2N 63.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 28.3N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 29.5N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE DAY...AS THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
AN ASCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT DATA...THE INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 50 KT.

THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE LESLIE HAS SUCH A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND WIND FIELD...IT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND THE REMAINING ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS BRING LESLIE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 3-4 DAYS AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEEPING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HOURS
AND REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE SINCE IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE
STRUCTURE OF LESLIE WILL EVOLVE IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSEST THE LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH IS HISTORICALLY
THE BEST PERFORMING INTENSITY MODEL.

AFTER HESITATING THIS MORNING...LESLIE HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT AROUND 9 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT
TIME...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS THAN THERE WAS THIS MORNING. THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES APART...WITH THE GFS
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ECMWF THE
WESTERNMOST MODEL. GIVEN THIS SPREAD...THE UPDATED TRACK IS
BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED SPREAD...THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAN BEFORE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 22.4N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 24.6N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 25.5N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 26.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 26.9N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 28.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 29.5N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

...LESLIE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 61.7W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

LESLIE CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE QUITE COLD...SUGGESTING VIGOROUS
DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AS
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB. SINCE
THERE HAVE BEEN NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 50
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROHIBITIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTERWARDS...DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.

AN SSM/IS IMAGE FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS
LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE
WORKING BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. EVEN WITH THE
SLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...
325/9...IS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...HOWEVER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA. THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN FORECASTS AND THE ECMWF TRACK...WITH THE LATTER MODEL BEING
FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 23.4N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 24.4N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 25.4N 62.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 26.0N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 26.6N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 27.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 28.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 30.0N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 62.1W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012

A TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OF -84C TO -88C HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS
GRADUALLY BEEN EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE MASSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND
T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB...PLUS AN ADT ESTIMATE T3.2/49 KT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER...THE
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07 KT. OTHER THAN A FEW WOBBLES
HERE AND THERE...LESLIE HAS REMAINED BASICALLY ON TRACK. OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT LESLIE WILL MOVE TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
IS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 65W. AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND CAUSE IT TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON
DAYS 3 AND 4. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER-LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACT TO LIFT LESLIE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FAIRLY
TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS
MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS CURRENTLY INDICATING MORE THAN 20 KT OF
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE OVERDONE DUE TO THE 500 KM RADIUS USED BY THAT MODEL TO COMPUTE
SHEAR. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY ABOUT 15
KT OF SHEAR...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 30 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THESE SHEAR VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...EVEN AN INCREASE IN
TO AROUND 20 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HINDER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER LESLIE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG 50W ON
DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CREATE CONDITIONS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT AT DAY 5 WHERE THE
FORECAST IS HIGHER...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 23.8N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 24.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.5N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 26.1N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 26.6N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 27.6N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 28.7N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE MAINTAINING 60 MPH WINDS...
...LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE U.S. EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 63.1W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. SWELLS COULD ALSO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012

LESLIE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR HAS CAUSED
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE QUITE ASYMMETRIC WITH NEARLY ALL OF
THE COLD CLOUD TOPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS THIS CYCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50
KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING A LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX AND GIVEN THAT THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...LESLIE WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF LESLIE WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. BLENDING THE MICROWAVE DATA WITH EARLIER SATELLITE FIXES
YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/7. LESLIE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...CAUSING THE STEERING CURRENTS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...LESLIE IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF LESLIE
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD
AT A FASTER PACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION.

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT
BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 24.4N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 25.2N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 25.8N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 26.3N 63.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 26.8N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 27.7N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 29.0N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 31.5N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE MOVING VERY SLOWLY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A VERY SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
LESLIE RECENTLY...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO LET UP
MUCH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...SO LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN THAT IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE CYCLONE TO
INTENSIFY. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.

LESLIE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND MOST OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS
330/3. A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4
DAYS AS LESLIE REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A
FASTER PACE. THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THERE IS NOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT DAY 5. THIS FORECAST LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT
BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON A 1340 UTC
ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 24.0N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 28.1N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO KEEP THE STORM FROM BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. HOWEVER...A
RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING HAS
OCCURRED...AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER ON...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INSISTENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS THE GFS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED AND
SYMMETRICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER LESLIE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE LATEST LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS.

MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE STORM
HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF AT ALL...SO THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS STATIONARY. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY IN A
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION WHILE IT REMAINS IN VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY ABOUT 5
DAYS...THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD INDUCE A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WAVES GREATER THAN 12 FEET HIGH EXTEND
SOME 300-400 N MI FROM THE CENTER. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...LARGE SWELLS
PROPAGATING AWAY FROM LESLIE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 24.6N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 27.2N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 28.5N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

AFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEARED CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS TAKEN ON A SMOOTHER
APPEARANCE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CI-VALUES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

MICROWAVE FIXES THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SUGGEST
THAT LESLIE HAD...IN FACT...MOVED LITTLE...BUT WAS ALSO LOCATED A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE GENERAL MOTION TREND OF THE OVERALL
CLOUD MASS NOW SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE HAS RESUMED A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION OF 360/03 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LESLIE HAS
BYPASSED THE CYCLONE WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OFF THE CAROLINAS IS
BUILDING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASED RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...A LARGE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY DAY 5
AND GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH DAY 3...AND THEN IS BACK ON TRACK AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO
MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 48 HOURS
AND BEYOND AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER LESLIE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 50W LONGITUDE...IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE ON DAY 5. THE GFS-BASED
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM NEGATIVE FEEDBACK
AT DAYS 4-5 CAUSED BY 200/250 MB WARMING DUE TO THE GFS MODEL
MAKING LESLIE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF ALSO IS FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
LESLIE ON DAYS 4-5...AS INDICATED BY 130-KT 850 MB WINDS ON DAY 5.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH WITH 115-KT 850 MB WINDS ALSO ON DAY
5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY ON DAY 5...WHICH
IS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL ICON.

WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON A 04/0054 UTC
ASCAT OVERPASS AND A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP DPJK...WHICH WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 180 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF
LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY
FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.7N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 25.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 25.9N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 26.4N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 26.7N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 27.6N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 29.1N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 32.0N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...DISORGANIZED LESLIE DRIFTING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 62.5W
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION...WHICH MAY BE ERRATIC AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
BERMUDA...THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY