ATL: INVEST 91L

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see any reason why it couldn't become a strong Tropical Storm before landfall.

[Hurricane Alexis]

So where could a possible LLC be located at?

[GCANE]

LLC pegged just NW of Andros

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031845.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208031800

I am thinking that is too far NW, I think that the developing surface circulation is much closer to the west of Andros I if not right on top of it.

RAP is showing it between Andros and the Keys.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... ?sector=18

Also, it has the infeed at about 3000 CAPE

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-077

SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[SFLcane]

So where could a possible LLC be located at?

[brunota2003]

I think the low is further east than that...just looking at some ship reports and land obs.

[Weatherboy1]

If anything, I think we may see an LLC come together near or just to the W of the NW tip of Andros. We clearly have a low pressure area there already, judging by surface obs, including that one of 30+ knots on the western tip of Grand Bahama. Just need more convection near this general center area, and we could have a TD. But given its likely motion, it shouldn't have all that much time to spin up. So I would GUESS if it does come together, it never makes it to more than TS level before crossing Florida. Later on, we'd have to see how conditions are in the Gulf, where it would have more time over water to work with.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm impressed.

[AdvAutoBob]

I'm DE-pressed...
wanted to go racing tomorrow, but it's looking Immokalee is going to be fighting rain all day..

I'll always take a rainmaker over a "real" tropical system though, every day of the week..

[JPmia]

Time to dust off my favorite local sat website link:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[brunota2003]

Looks like the 33 knots was probably in association with a squall...the winds dropped back down to 11 knots with the 5 pm update. Still out of the ENE/NE, though.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[Zanthe]

Very similar to TS Tammy from 2005. NOTHING like Katrina, to everyone comparing it to it, just because of how fast it develops.

[Houstonia]

91L and Houston impact:

Jeff Lindner (Harris County Flood Control District):

Strong high pressure over the area will be moving NW over the weekend allowing the area to come under the influence of troughing over the NE Gulf of Mexico.

The retreating high will allow moisture and weak disturbances to move into the area from the east starting on Sunday. This will help cool afternoon temperatures from the upper 90’s into the low to mid 90’s and bring a 20-30% chance of rainfall into the forecast.

Early next week shows the ridge remaining anchored to our west with a downstream trough developing over the eastern US and a weakness in the ridge over E TX/LA. Moisture associated with the area of tropical weather E of FL this afternoon may get pushed westward toward SE TX toward Tuesday of next week. There is some potential that this system my try and develop into a closed circulation and that would have some bigger impacts to the area if it were to make it this far west. With the main ridge off to our NW, expect a continued chance of daily showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze.

Extended:

All eyes will be on TS Ernesto and its track into the Gulf of Mexico and what if any impacts it may have on the TX coast. For now any impacts would be beyond next Thursday.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based upon high-resolution NEXRAD data, CIMSS 850-mb vorticity analyses, and visible satellite imagery, there appears to be a weak low-pressure center with two distinct centers: the old one near 24.4°N 78.2°W (WNW of the northern half of Andros Island) and a newer one near 24.2°N 77.8°W that has just become evident on the latest satellite images between 2015-2045Z. On these images, the low-level clouds west of Andros appear to shift from 310° (NW) to 290° (WNW), thus signifying a new center farther southeast, closer to where CIMSS shows the greatest low-level vorticity. If true, this trend would appear to buy time for the system, allowing about six extra hours over water...30 instead of 24 hours...before the building low-level ridge shoves it into east-central FL.

Overall, I see notable similarities to Tammy (2005) and Katrina and Rita (2005) in that all three originated in the region in which 91L is currently developing, and that each was initially sheared by an upper-level low just to its WSW. As the upper-level low quickly retrograded and low-level ridging built in, each began developing and consolidating a low-level center, usually nearest to the strongest convection / vorticity maximum on the east side of the system. Each started by developing good anticyclonic outflow channels in the eastern quadrant before slowly expanding outflow to the west as the upper low retreated. Given these trends, evident in 91L, I expect the NHC to raise development to at least 50% later tonight.

Based upon the CIMSS charts, as well as the more southeasterly center, I do not expect much sustained movement of 335° (NNW) or northward. I expect a turn to the NW (310°) to begin after the next 12 hours, and with the ridge moving in, I think the system will slow down until then, resulting in a landfall well to the south of Fort Pierce. Based upon the organization, as well as the intensification rates of the aforementioned, comparable antecedents in 2005, I would expect top winds of 45-50 mph (moderate TS) and a landfall near Stuart around 0400Z Sunday morning, or about midnight local time. Afterward, an acceleration and a track around the ridge toward Apalachicola seems most likely based upon the trough by 48 hours and the model guidance.

CIMSS steering

Satellite and radar data

Latest steering currents

Latest satellite

[johngaltfla]

Seriously? Sheesh, Ernesto is the one to watch.

But I'll buy my usual preps.

Ribeyes.

Popcorn.

Beer.

(Not a recommendation, just what I do for minor tropical systems. The big ones, uh, long list of preps already laid in.)

[Bocadude85]

Id think the NHC will up the development chances at 8pm to 40 or 50%

[NDG]

I still think that the surface COC is closer to Andros Island, seems to be getting closer to the MLC.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/AMX.N0Z ... .48_an.gif

[NDG]

I can't believe much of the local statations in Miami are talking about 91L much if at all. They keep talking about Ernesto and 90L.

[ObsessedMiami]

I can't believe much of the local statations in Miami are talking about 91L much if at all. They keep talking about Ernesto and 90L.

Phil Ferro said if it develops, it will just be more rain. Shrugs

[JPmia]

I can't believe much of the local statations in Miami are talking about 91L much if at all. They keep talking about Ernesto and 90L.

They're talking about it, but shrugging it off as a low chance development potential (Channel 10)