WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical
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- ManilaTC
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Latest warning by JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 12.2N 133.2E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 13.8N 130.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 12.2N 133.2E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 13.8N 130.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 95W)
TCFA already issued by JTWC.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- WestPACMet
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Re:
dhoeze wrote:Anyone has the updated forecasted track of this system?
thanks gurus!
If you go back a page you can see my video I posted yesterday on this.
Plus here is some of the info on the TCFA from JTWC
WTPN21 PGTW 251700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 134.8E TO 15.9N 129.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
251630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
134.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
135.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 251335Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING LLCC. A 251207Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. A SHIP
REPORT AT 25/12Z (200 NM NW OF CENTER) SUPPORTS THE 20 KNOT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT WITH WINDS 080/19 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1006 MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 23N 137E. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-36
HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LUZON. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261700Z.//
NNNN
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 95W)
TXPQ21 KNES 260313
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)
B. 26/0232Z
C. 14.1N
D. 132.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...GT 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.O. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GUILLOT
luzon threat...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 95W)
Appears to me that they got duped by that swirl at 14N 132E... looks like that its a mid level circ and its now going away based on the last few visible pics
The real thing could be at 12N 131E! near that big blob of convection
The real thing could be at 12N 131E! near that big blob of convection
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The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 95W)
euro has this passing north of luzon and south of taiwan so plenty of warm water for this to intensify...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 95W)
ClarkEligue wrote:Appears to me that they got duped by that swirl at 14N 132E... looks like that its a mid level circ and its now going away based on the last few visible pics
The real thing could be at 12N 131E! near that big blob of convection
EDITED. I was agreeing with you a while ago coz JMA also had the coordinates at around 12N 132E. JMA's latest position of the TD has it at 13.9N 131.2E.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 95W)
dexterlabio wrote:ClarkEligue wrote:Appears to me that they got duped by that swirl at 14N 132E... looks like that its a mid level circ and its now going away based on the last few visible pics
The real thing could be at 12N 131E! near that big blob of convection
EDITED. I was agreeing with you a while ago coz JMA also had the coordinates at around 12N 132E. JMA's latest position of the TD has it at 13.9N 131.2E.
Better Learn the Dvorak technique hehehe
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- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 95W)
this is confusing, is this the one in 135E yesterday?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 95W)
i can see the SW periphery of this system is fine and robust. the northern portions of it seems weird to me. i agree this looks to be a large system, its extent stretches from north to south and that could be a burden to it.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 95W)
mrbagyo wrote:this is confusing, is this the one in 135E yesterday?
yes. for some reason the invest near 135E yesterday was assigned as 95W. The other invest nearer Luzon became 94W and now it's gone. would be less confusing now that we had this TD to talk about, especially if this gets named.
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Upgraded, now tropical storm Doksuri, track through Bashi by JMA!
WTPQ20 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1206 DOKSURI (1206) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 14.3N 130.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 16.8N 127.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 281200UTC 18.8N 123.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 291200UTC 20.8N 119.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1206 DOKSURI (1206) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 14.3N 130.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 16.8N 127.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 281200UTC 18.8N 123.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 291200UTC 20.8N 119.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Doksuri (INVEST 95W)
it really has a large scope, also indicated by the JMA. HKO also has the same forecast track of this passing through Calayan and Babuyan Islands.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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