EPAC: INVEST 95E

[Cyclenall]

Nah, since the ATL was quiet during that period. When did you start following ATL hurricanes? According to the left, you Joined in 2006.

Because the ATL was quiet during these years, it would be less likely for them to join a message board and talk about any TC on the planet. That's my point.

I started following Atlantic hurricanes around when Hurricane Dennis in 2005 occurred. It just snowballed from there.

[cycloneye]

What a big difference between 94E and 95E.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Nah, since the ATL was quiet during that period. When did you start following ATL hurricanes? According to the left, you Joined in 2006.

Because the ATL was quiet during these years, it would be less likely for them to join a message board and talk about any TC on the planet. That's my point.

I started following Atlantic hurricanes around when Hurricane Dennis in 2005 occurred. It just snowballed from there.

Ah, thanks for telling me.

[Yellow Evan]

From 11 TWO

1. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

From 11 TWO, not on 5. Has this be de-activated?

[Extratropical94]

Not on TWO anymore and the invest has been deactivated

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep952012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206141321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012061212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952012
EP, 95, 2012061212, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061218, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061300, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061306, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1022W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061312, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1035W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 95, 2012061318, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1047W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061400, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1060W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Yellow Evan]

Goodbye 95E.

[Extratropical94]

Is this still 95E?


1. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Extratropical94,the invest is back!


EP, 95, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1112W, 20, 1005, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Welcome back 95E!

[Extratropical94]

Extratropical94,the invest is back!


EP, 95, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1112W, 20, 1005, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Kingarabian]

GFS brings it close to Mexico... Away from that huge patch of dry air.

[cycloneye]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Does not have much time to develop as it is getting close to land. I'd say 36 hours to develop. Either way, it looks like MX might game rain from this.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

euro shows this developing to a very weak system and moving towards mexico...

[Zanthe]

ANOTHER Mexican storm?

[euro6208]

ANOTHER Mexican storm?

latest euro has this dissipating over water soon...

[Kingarabian]

Actually its up to 30%. I personally believe its generally large size will limit any possible rapid development.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[euro6208]

hmm euro now shows this developing into possibly a tropical storm making landfall over mexico...

[Extratropical94]

Up to 60%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.