EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

12z Euro is further south than yesterday's 12z run, landfall between Daytona Beach & St Augustine Sunday afternoon.

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251812
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 39 20120525
180400 1824N 10648W 8431 01565 0094 +165 +147 322031 032 /// /// 03
180430 1822N 10648W 8430 01561 0092 +163 +146 322031 031 /// /// 03
180500 1820N 10647W 8429 01565 0097 +160 +146 324032 033 /// /// 03
180530 1818N 10647W 8430 01562 0093 +160 +149 327030 031 /// /// 03
180600 1815N 10647W 8431 01559 0090 +160 +150 330030 030 /// /// 03
180630 1813N 10647W 8430 01560 0095 +158 +154 329030 030 /// /// 03
180700 1811N 10647W 8433 01559 0095 +152 //// 321027 029 /// /// 05
180730 1809N 10647W 8433 01560 0095 +160 +160 312023 024 /// /// 03
180800 1809N 10647W 8433 01560 0093 +161 +154 313025 025 /// /// 03
180830 1805N 10647W 8429 01562 0094 +160 +151 317026 027 /// /// 03
180900 1802N 10647W 8430 01561 0094 +161 +150 317027 028 /// /// 03
180930 1800N 10647W 8433 01560 0090 +166 +150 314028 028 /// /// 03
181000 1758N 10646W 8426 01568 0092 +164 +149 314028 030 /// /// 03
181030 1756N 10646W 8425 01566 0095 +157 +155 318029 029 /// /// 03
181100 1754N 10646W 8434 01557 0097 +155 //// 320029 029 /// /// 05
181130 1751N 10646W 8435 01558 0096 +158 +154 321029 029 /// /// 03
181200 1749N 10646W 8426 01568 0097 +160 +152 321030 030 /// /// 03
181230 1747N 10646W 8429 01566 0097 +160 +151 319029 029 /// /// 03
181300 1745N 10646W 8428 01566 0097 +160 +151 317028 029 /// /// 03
181330 1744N 10644W 8429 01562 0095 +160 +152 314026 027 /// /// 03
$$

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro gets it into the extreme NE Gulf by 96 hours...

[NDG]

12z Euro gets it into the extreme NE Gulf by 96 hours...

Barely, if at all.
But the most important thing is that it shows meandering around through Wednesday across northern FL.

[northjaxpro]

12z Euro gets it into the extreme NE Gulf by 96 hours...

Barely, if at all.
But the most important thing is that it shows meandering around through Wednesday across northern FL.

Here it is:

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251822
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 40 20120525
181400 1745N 10642W 8432 01562 0097 +156 +155 315024 024 /// /// 03
181430 1746N 10641W 8430 01563 0099 +156 +154 315024 024 /// /// 03
181500 1748N 10639W 8429 01563 0099 +157 +153 312024 025 /// /// 03
181530 1749N 10638W 8430 01562 0091 +167 +150 309024 024 /// /// 03
181600 1751N 10636W 8430 01560 0087 +169 +153 316023 023 /// /// 03
181630 1752N 10635W 8429 01557 0083 +165 +157 314021 022 /// /// 03
181700 1753N 10633W 8432 01549 0080 +163 +159 313022 024 /// /// 03
181730 1755N 10632W 8429 01548 0077 +161 +151 313026 026 /// /// 03
181800 1756N 10630W 8429 01546 0076 +159 +152 311025 026 /// /// 03
181830 1758N 10629W 8433 01544 0076 +161 +153 311027 027 /// /// 03
181900 1759N 10627W 8429 01550 0076 +164 +150 307028 028 /// /// 03
181930 1801N 10626W 8430 01544 0070 +166 +152 300029 029 /// /// 03
182000 1802N 10624W 8431 01545 0069 +173 +151 293029 029 /// /// 03
182030 1804N 10623W 8429 01548 0077 +160 //// 291028 030 /// /// 05
182100 1805N 10621W 8443 01535 0077 +162 //// 292029 030 /// /// 05
182130 1807N 10620W 8429 01549 0080 +153 //// 293032 032 /// /// 05
182200 1808N 10619W 8428 01549 0080 +154 //// 298031 033 /// /// 05
182230 1809N 10617W 8430 01549 0081 +157 //// 298030 030 /// /// 05
182300 1811N 10616W 8429 01551 0085 +147 //// 301033 035 /// /// 05
182330 1812N 10614W 8427 01552 //// +144 //// 308036 036 /// /// 05
$$

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL and HWRF should be out by now. Wonder why they are being held up.

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro gets it into the extreme NE Gulf by 96 hours...

Barely, if at all.
But the most important thing is that it shows meandering around through Wednesday across northern FL.

none the less farther south this run continuing the trend... close to the GFS and cmc and 1 mb lower pressure than the 00z run at landfall. think the models were to slow in consolidating it in previous runs but its doing it faster now in tern it likely respond to the ridging sooner.

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251832
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 41 20120525
182400 1813N 10613W 8428 01550 0081 +154 //// 309038 039 /// /// 05
182430 1815N 10612W 8424 01552 //// +138 //// 308041 041 /// /// 05
182500 1816N 10610W 8429 01546 //// +126 //// 303040 041 /// /// 05
182530 1817N 10609W 8432 01540 //// +133 //// 297040 041 /// /// 05
182600 1819N 10607W 8429 01541 //// +146 //// 304038 039 /// /// 05
182630 1820N 10606W 8429 01539 //// +148 //// 306037 038 /// /// 05
182700 1822N 10604W 8429 01535 //// +151 //// 303036 037 /// /// 05
182730 1823N 10603W 8431 01534 //// +151 //// 302036 037 /// /// 05
182800 1825N 10601W 8431 01532 //// +148 //// 301036 036 /// /// 05
182830 1826N 10600W 8432 01528 //// +140 //// 302034 036 /// /// 05
182900 1828N 10558W 8427 01531 //// +137 //// 304035 037 /// /// 05
182930 1829N 10557W 8439 01518 //// +137 //// 303037 038 /// /// 05
183000 1830N 10555W 8441 01514 //// +149 //// 311036 037 /// /// 05
183030 1832N 10554W 8427 01524 //// +150 //// 314038 039 /// /// 05
183100 1833N 10553W 8429 01518 //// +150 //// 315041 043 /// /// 05
183130 1834N 10552W 8426 01520 //// +152 //// 319044 045 /// /// 05
183200 1835N 10550W 8431 01511 //// +160 //// 326045 045 /// /// 05
183230 1836N 10549W 8427 01511 //// +164 //// 330046 047 /// /// 05
183300 1837N 10548W 8429 01506 //// +163 //// 328047 048 /// /// 05
183330 1838N 10547W 8429 01505 //// +166 //// 330049 049 /// /// 05
$$

Nearing the center (and landfall!)

[thundercam96]

Does it look like it will hit the florida coast?

[Evil Jeremy]

Does it look like it will hit the florida coast?

There's a possibility that 94L could directly impact the NE Florida coast. However, the worst weather should be north of the system.

[northjaxpro]

Does it look like it will hit the florida coast?

The models, preferably for me the EURO, are coming into agreement that 94L/Beryl will make a visit in my neck of the woods here in Northeast Florida. Of course a shift in the track can still occur, but for now the focus is in line for Beryl to come my way.

[Aric Dunn]

well this is for bud but the hwrf shows our system coming in what appears to be just south of Jax which is a 50 miles shift south but whats more interesting is the continued wsw motion the previous run had a straight west motion and almost looks like it brought into the gulf. cant be for sure until they run it specifically for this system

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Chickenzilla]

Bud has weakened fast.Now it looks like a TS.

The cloud tops have warmed.

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

if you look real close a bunch of the consensus models have landfall as far south as cape canaveral.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251854
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 43 20120525
184400 1903N 10526W 8428 01456 9954 +185 //// 137022 023 /// /// 05
184430 1904N 10525W 8429 01456 9956 +185 //// 138027 029 /// /// 05
184500 1905N 10523W 8429 01459 9958 +184 //// 138031 033 /// /// 05
184530 1906N 10522W 8431 01460 9962 +186 //// 143035 037 /// /// 05
184600 1907N 10521W 8429 01467 9968 +184 //// 141039 042 /// /// 05
184630 1907N 10519W 8428 01471 //// +177 //// 139045 048 /// /// 05
184700 1908N 10518W 8433 01470 9972 +189 //// 140051 054 /// /// 05
184730 1909N 10517W 8436 01473 9976 +194 +186 139055 056 /// /// 03
184800 1910N 10515W 8426 01488 9980 +198 +184 141056 058 /// /// 03
184830 1911N 10514W 8426 01494 9984 +204 +182 141056 057 /// /// 03
184900 1912N 10513W 8431 01495 9992 +203 +182 141057 058 /// /// 03
184930 1912N 10513W 8431 01495 0001 +195 +182 141060 061 /// /// 03
185000 1913N 10510W 8426 01510 0011 +185 +183 138060 061 /// /// 03
185030 1914N 10509W 8430 01506 0015 +183 +180 132060 060 /// /// 03
185100 1915N 10507W 8434 01506 0017 +187 +167 130066 069 /// /// 03
185130 1915N 10506W 8430 01509 0022 +180 +166 134072 073 /// /// 03
185200 1916N 10505W 8426 01518 0029 +176 +159 138077 080 /// /// 03
185230 1917N 10504W 8432 01516 0036 +173 +163 139071 075 /// /// 03
185300 1918N 10502W 8433 01517 0039 +172 +158 142069 070 /// /// 03
185330 1918N 10501W 8426 01528 0041 +173 +163 142068 069 /// /// 03
$$

Normal transmission of OBS 42 didn't happen - I'll see if I can fish it out of the archives - but we do have hurricane FL winds in the near NEQ

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251902
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 44 20120525
185400 1918N 10500W 8338 01611 0031 +173 +152 142068 070 /// /// 03
185430 1918N 10459W 7977 01988 0024 +156 +145 140068 069 /// /// 03
185500 1917N 10458W 7614 02387 0024 +131 //// 135065 066 /// /// 05
185530 1917N 10456W 7253 02796 0032 +102 //// 137065 066 /// /// 05
185600 1916N 10455W 6968 03136 //// +083 //// 142066 069 /// /// 05
185630 1916N 10454W 6714 03451 //// +063 //// 145061 064 /// /// 05
185700 1916N 10453W 6533 03681 //// +060 //// 158057 059 /// /// 05
185730 1915N 10451W 6362 03903 //// +066 //// 172053 054 /// /// 05
185800 1915N 10450W 6175 04150 9993 +060 //// 182055 056 /// /// 05
185830 1914N 10448W 6012 04370 9993 +049 //// 188054 056 /// /// 05
185900 1913N 10447W 5830 04620 //// +032 //// 191054 055 /// /// 05
185930 1913N 10445W 5677 04824 9979 +025 //// 203049 051 /// /// 05
190000 1912N 10443W 5487 05113 0228 +010 //// 205046 049 /// /// 05
190030 1912N 10441W 5364 05299 0246 +001 -011 213045 046 /// /// 05
190100 1911N 10440W 5249 05473 0257 -003 -031 221043 043 /// /// 03
190130 1910N 10438W 5110 05687 0274 -017 -042 228040 041 /// /// 03
190200 1910N 10436W 5009 05846 0288 -022 -069 237037 038 /// /// 03
190230 1909N 10434W 4892 06033 0302 -034 -082 239032 036 /// /// 03
190300 1909N 10432W 4719 06323 0324 -058 -075 246028 032 /// /// 03
190330 1910N 10429W 4595 06534 0338 -073 -089 253025 027 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZPN13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 19:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 20

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 18.7N 105.7W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... lon=-105.7
Location: 139 miles (223 km) to the SSW (193°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.

Level: Geo. Height / Air Temp. / Dew Point / Wind Direction / Wind Speed
1002mb (29.59 inHg): Sea Level (Surface) / 23.8°C (74.8°F) / 22.8°C (73.0°F) / 275° (from the W) / 55 knots (63 mph)
1000mb: 14m (46 ft) / 23.8°C (74.8°F) / 22.8°C (73.0°F) / 275° (from the W) / 56 knots (64 mph)
925mb: 693m (2,274 ft) / 19.8°C (67.6°F) / 19.1°C (66.4°F) / 300° (from the WNW) / 62 knots (71 mph)
850mb: 1,425m (4,675 ft) / 18.4°C (65.1°F) / 18.1°C (64.6°F) / 325° (from the NW) / 53 knots (61 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 18:35Z

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.

Splash Location: 18.67N 105.69W
Splash Time: 18:37Z

Release Location: 18.69N 105.72W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... on=-105.72
Release Time: 18:35:08Z

Splash Location: 18.67N 105.69W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... on=-105.69
Splash Time: 18:37:30Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters):
- Wind: 290° (from the WNW) at 61 knots (70 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth):
- Wind: 305° (from the NW) at 58 knots (67 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1001mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm):
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind: 285° (from the WNW) at 57 knots (66 mph)

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...

Level: Air Temp. / Dew Point
1002mb (Surface): 23.8°C (74.8°F) / 22.8°C (73.0°F)
943mb: 20.4°C (68.7°F) / 19.8°C (67.6°F)
850mb: 18.4°C (65.1°F) / 18.1°C (64.6°F)
843mb: 17.2°C (63.0°F) / 17.2°C (63.0°F)

Significant Wind Levels...

Level: Wind Direction / Wind Speed
1002mb (Surface): 275° (from the W) / 55 knots (63 mph)
998mb: 280° (from the W) / 58 knots (67 mph)
970mb: 285° (from the WNW) / 58 knots (67 mph)
952mb: 290° (from the WNW) / 68 knots (78 mph)
909mb: 305° (from the NW) / 57 knots (66 mph)
883mb: 320° (from the NW) / 64 knots (74 mph)
864mb: 320° (from the NW) / 54 knots (62 mph)
855mb: 325° (from the NW) / 56 knots (64 mph)
843mb: 325° (from the NW) / 48 knots (55 mph)

---

Original Undecoded Observation:

UZPN13 KNHC 251902
XXAA 75198 99187 71057 04785 99002 23810 27555 00014 23810 27556
92693 19807 30062 85425 18403 32553 88999 77999
31313 09608 81835
61616 AF302 0202E BUD OB 20
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1867N10569W 1837 MBL WND 29061 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 30558 001843 WL150 28557 083 REL 1869N10572W 183508 SPG 1867N1
0569W 183730 =
XXBB 75198 99187 71057 04785 00002 23810 11943 20406 22850 18403
33843 17200
21212 00002 27555 11998 28058 22970 28558 33952 29068 44909 30557
55883 32064 66864 32054 77855 32556 88843 32548
31313 09608 81835
61616 AF302 0202E BUD OB 20
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1867N10569W 1837 MBL WND 29061 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 30558 001843 WL150 28557 083 REL 1869N10572W 183508 SPG 1867N1
0569W 183730 =

[CrazyC83]

It looks like it is making landfall now?

Best guess for current intensity is 60 kt based on FL and dropsonde data.

[AJC3]

if you look real close a bunch of the consensus models have landfall as far south as cape canaveral.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

I think you meant to say that a few of the individual GFS ensemble members are that far south. The only consensus model plotted on there (TVCN) is all the way up in Georgia.