ATL: INVEST 90L

[cycloneye]

The NW Caribbean disturbance gets invest status. There is too much shear to allow anything to develop,but for being Febuary,is very interesting to see this.


Thread that was the topic for this area of interest at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112459&hilit=&p=2212987#p2212987

[cycloneye]

However,nothing at NRL nor atcf sites.hmmm.

[KyleEverett]

Ah February, time for the Super Bowl, Valentine's Day, and tropical invests!

Lots going against our little buddy though. He's in the only part of the basin with shear under 50kts.



Also, dry air a plenty.

[CrazyC83]

It happened in 1952...it can happen again. Alberto perhaps?

[SouthFloridawx]

Maybe it's just basically a test?

[dixiebreeze]

A real Sunday surprise!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Feel free to correct me if I am incorrect, but with it likely being subtropical in nature, wind shear and dry air have very little effect on the system.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




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[AdamFirst]

Hoping this dumps more rain than expected on the peninsula - fill the coffers up during this dry season

[cycloneye]

Low level convergence is good.



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[northjaxpro]

Well, the way this weather has been with virtually a non-winter, why not have a February invest down in the NW Caribbean uh?

If anything, I hope this invest will help bring some much needed rain to the peninsula in the short term. We really need it badly up here in the northeast portion of the state.

[Ivanhater]

Winter has been non existent on the Gulf coast so I'm not surprised by this.

[northjaxpro]

Winter has been non existent on the Gulf coast so I'm not surprised by this.

Exactly!


I am hoping this system brings some much needed rain to the peninsula in the short-term.

[BreinLa]

Crazy!!!!!

[Hurricanehink]

From the latest TWO:

THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS AREA IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

[RL3AO]

So when will we get a STWO?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Whenever they decide to issue it, I guess. They may not make one at all. However, considering they've mentioned the potential for development in their Tropical Weather Discussion, I'd watch closely today and tomorrow.

It looks like the system has closed low based on surface observations.

[NDG]

As the day has gone by the more noticeable the surface circulation has become, with surface pressures falling in the Yucatan channel, ever so slightly though.

[Evil Jeremy]

My off-season hibernation ended too quickly. Well, I guess it is that time of year. Every good hurricane season starts in February.

I would expect a STWO at some point today. If I remember correctly, during the off season they tend to issue STWOs at 2 and 8, like they would during the season.

[Hurricaneman]

as it comes out of that area it would quickly become ex-tropical