SIO: HEIDI (07U/06S) - Tropical Cyclone

[senorpepr]

Another Invest. GFS has hinted at development w/ this system.

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:06pm WST on Monday the 9th of January 2012
Valid until midnight WST Thursday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is strengthening over tropical waters to the north of the
state, and a weak tropical low is starting to form near 12S 118E. The low is
likely to move steadily southwards and approach the Pilbara coast over the next
few days. If the low remains over the ocean, there is a chance it could develop
into a tropical cyclone later on Wednesday or on Thursday, although it is more
likely to remain below cyclone intensity. However, regardless of whether the low
develops into a tropical cyclone, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase
over the central and eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley over the next few
days, with some heavy rainfall and squally conditions likely.

Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :Moderate
Thursday :Moderate

Another tropical low may develop along the monsoon trough near 10S 105E on
Tuesday. It is expected to move eastwards and remain weak through the outlook
period.

Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :Low
Thursday :Low

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

[Aussie_Thunder]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:19 pm WST on Tuesday 10 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier.

At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
550 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
moving south at 17 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low may
develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales
with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to
Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on
Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.


FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Dampier should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.4 degrees South 119.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 10 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMHO will be a very marginal system should it actually make Cyclone status...wil however bring some nice rainfall to this part of the coastline on crossing and adjacent inland later in the piece!

[senorpepr]

JTWC has upgraded this into a TCFA:

WTXS21 PGTW 100830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 118.9E TO 23.4S 116.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 100630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S 118.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7S
118.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 118.8E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS FRAGMENTED AND
ORGANIZATION LACKING, THERE IS A TREND TOWARDS BETTER ORGANIZATION,
WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS NUMEROUS 25 KNOT
WIND FLAGS NEAR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND A BROAD FIELD OF GALE
FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE PILBARA COAST. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SYSTEM CORE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME INHIBITION TO
OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT, BUT ALSO SHOWS A VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO
THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE 31 DEGREES.
SURFACE PRESSURE REPORTS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON AN INTENSITY EQUATING TO 25 KNOTS. THE 100000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS JUST POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND MOVING TOWARDS AN AREA OF HIGHER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE PILBARA COAST. THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FAIL TO REACH CYCLONE INTENSITY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, BUT THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE 35 KNOT THRESHOLD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110830Z.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

AXAU01 APRF 100745
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0745 UTC 10/01/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 119.3E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 10/1800: 17.4S 118.7E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1000
+24: 11/0600: 19.2S 118.0E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 993
+36: 11/1800: 20.8S 117.1E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 996
+48: 12/0600: 22.3S 115.7E: 130 [240]: 025 [045]: 1002
+60: 12/1800: 23.5S 114.6E: 160 [295]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 13/0600: 24.6S 113.0E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
A tropical low north of WA has showed persistent convection near the centre
during the day. The low level centre is obscured by cloud and difficult to
determine. FT has been set at 2.0 based on MET and curved band.

The system is currently in an area of low to moderate shear and warm SSTs
suggesting that further development is likely in the next 24 hours. Despite
this, all model guidance forecast a system with gales confined southeast of the
centre in the squeeze between the low and a ridge to the south and hence not
strictly a tropical cyclone. While this remains the most probable scenario, the
likely impact to the Pilbara coast of gales and heavy rain will be consistent
with that of a category 1 tropical cyclone.

The low is expected to move southwards over the next 12 to 24 hours before
taking a more southwestwards turn as it get closer to the coast. During this
period shear increases and the low level circulation is likely to weaken and
move more westwards while the mid level circulation tracks to the southeast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[senorpepr]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 9:01 pm WST on Tuesday 10 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier,
including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
415 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
515 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low has
strengthened over the past 6 hours, and is now producing gales over offshore
waters to the south of the centre. The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone
on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per
hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning,
extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and
Whim Creek, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland and Whim Creek need
to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first
aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.6 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 11 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Heidi:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Category 1 = 34 to 47 kts

Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday. Heidi is currently a Category 1 system, and is unlikely to intensify further before reaching the coast.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland and Whim Creek need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Name: Tropical Cyclone Heidi

Details:
Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 11 pm January 10 1 17.2S 119.1E 55
+6hr 5 am January 11 1 18.1S 118.8E 95
+12hr 11 am January 11 1 19.0S 118.4E 110
+18hr 5 pm January 11 1 19.9S 118.0E 130
+24hr 11 pm January 11 1 20.6S 117.6E 150
+36hr 11 am January 12 tropical low 21.8S 116.5E 185
+48hr 11 pm January 12 tropical low 23.0S 115.6E 240

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Grifforzer]

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
6:00 AM WST January 11 2012

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (988 hPa) located at 18.1S 119.0E or 250 km north of Port Hedland and 370 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40-45 knots (estimated for this advisory) with gusts of 65 knots (120 km/h). The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland this morning, extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase to 120 km/h close to the center as it crosses the coast.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system and should maintain intensity until it reaches the coast, after which it should weaken.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides between Pardoo and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Mardie, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.


--------------------------------
10 minute sustained winds is estimated and not official reported by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Center in Perth, Australia for this advisory. However, the wind gust is reported as 120 km/h or 65 knots in the official advisory.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 102100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AMENDED//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100821Z JAN 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (HEIDI) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.4S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.1S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.6S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.3S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 27.8S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (HEIDI) LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 118.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT 101545Z TRMM 37H PASS INDICATE TC 06S
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW AT
WARNING STATUS. OBSERVATIONS AT ROWLEY SHOALS INDICATE THE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS WITH CENTRAL PRESSURES NEAR 996
MB SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 06S IS LOCATED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, KEEPING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) LOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW FAVORABLE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 06S
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AROUND A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
WESTWARD. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS WITH A
SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BEGINNING AFTER LANDFALL AS VWS
INCREASES AND SURFACE CONDITIONS HAMPER THE SUSTAINMENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 100821Z JAN 12
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100830). JUSTIFICATION
FOR AMENDMENT: ADDED TAU 72 POSITION AND ADJUSTED DISSIPATION
TIMELINE.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 6:20 am WST on Wednesday 11 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie,
including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, including the towns of
Port Hedland and Karratha.

At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 1 was estimated to be
250 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
370 kilometres northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara
coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland this morning,
extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase
to 120 kilometres per hour close to the centre as it crosses the coast.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system and should maintain intensity until it
reaches the coast, after which it should weaken.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides between Pardoo and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides
elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and
Mardie, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim
Creek, Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for
cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch,
portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.1 degrees South 119.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Wednesday 11 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Grifforzer]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 9:03 am WST on Wednesday 11 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 1 was estimated to be 220 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 350 kilometres northeast of Karratha and moving south at 15 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and could produce gusts to 100 kilometres per hour in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland late this morning, extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase to 130 kilometres per hour close to the centre as it crosses the coast overnight.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system, and may intensify to a Category 2 system just before landfall.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides between Wallal and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark overnight with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Mardie, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.4 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Wednesday 11 January.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

Radar imagery really showing a developing eye just north of Port Hedland, I wouldn't be surprised if this develops even further as it moves on shore

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR162.loop.shtml

[Grifforzer]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 2:57 pm WST on Wednesday 11 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier extending to adjacent inland parts.

The Cyclone WARNING from Dampier to Mardie has been cancelled.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 2 was estimated to be 140 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 280 kilometres northeast of Karratha and moving south southwest at 15 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi has intensified into a category 2 system as it tracks south-southwest towards the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected in coastal areas east of Whim Creek this afternoon and evening. Destructive winds with gusts to 155 kilometres per hour are possible overnight close to the cyclone centre between Whim Creek and Pardoo, including Port Hedland. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend west to Dampier overnight if the cyclone takes a more southwest track, and in the adjacent parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall are expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Residents in and near Port Hedland and east to Wallal are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with dangerous flooding of low-lying areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, and Whim Creek need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Whim Creek and Dampier, including the communities of Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, and Dampier need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.1 degrees South 118.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 986 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Wednesday 11 January.

[HURAKAN]

At 9 pm local time, Bedout Island is reporting sustained winds of 60 kt, pressure down to 987 mb

Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801 ... 4310.shtml

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, that sure does confirm the intensity

[Dave C]

looks to have about 6-8hrs over water. The radar appearance is impressive.

[HURAKAN]

Heidi moving away from Bedout Island ... winds down to 45 kt, pressure up to 993 mb