SIO: GIOVANNA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

it looks like giovanna might be the first tropical cyclone this year to make landfall as a category 4 if it maintains intensity. the first since last years double category 4 typhoon landfall over luzon philippines.

[Crostorm]

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/world_met7_big.html

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 FEB 2012 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 18:36:47 S Lon : 51:42:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 915.7mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : -11.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 207km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.6 degrees

****************************************************

[Typhoon Hunter]

Great webcam! Unfortunately it's located over 600km away from where Giovanna is forecast to make landfall so it may show some impressive cirrus outflow!

In all seriousness though this looks like it'll be a historic landfall for Madagascar. The coast south of Toamasina looks quite rural and sparsely populated so fingers crossed this will affect as few people as possible.

[cycloneye]

Another web cam.I think this one is more closer to the landfall spot. Link to both cams.

http://www.nosybe.com/

[HURAKAN]

another great sat pic

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 130653
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SW: 260 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
48H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5 ET CI=6.0
0333Z TRMM MW PICTURE SHOWS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS
ONGOING. IT WAS ALREADY VISIBLE ON RADAR OF LA REUNION FOR A FEW HOURS.
AVERAGE DT ON 6 HOURS IS 5.5. INTERNAL WINDS FIELDS MIGHT A BIT CHANGEWITH THIS ONGOING CYCLE (WEAKER INTENSITY BUT STORM FORCE WINDS
RADIUS LARGER).
SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MI-LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTH. THIS DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TUESDAY AS THE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO STRONGER EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURES. THE IMPACT OF THIS INCREASE WITH A SHEAR THAT IS IN THE
SAME DIRECTION THAN THE CYCLONE MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO APPRECIATE FOR A
SYSTEM LIKE GIOVANNA WITH A SELF-INDUCED OUTFLOW. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THIS CONSTRAINT, IT IS LIKELY
THAT INTENSITY MIGHT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR TONIGHT.
THE EXPECTED LANDFALL IS WITHIN A 80 KM RADIUS FROM ANDOVORANTO.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITHIN THE
POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. ALL INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE CLOSING OF THIS DANGEROUS CYCLONE.
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A
DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ACCORDING TO LATEST ECMWF RUN THAT NOW SUGGESTS A RAPID
RE-INTENSIFICATION, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS AGAIN UPGRADED.

[HURAKAN]

latest track

[Typhoon Hunter]

Cycloneye Google the name of that hotel, it's the opposite end of the country to where Giovanna's going to hit. Madagascar is a very large island!

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye Google the name of that hotel, it's the opposite end of the country to where Giovanna's going to hit. Madagascar is a very large island!

It will weaken while overland but plenty of rain with strong winds will go all the way to the west side and Euro forecasts it to reintensifie once over the channel.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 131228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 51.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 310 SW: 300 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/14 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 45.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 35.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ ET CI=6.0
CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A PRESENTATION THAT HAS NOT EVOLVED FOR LAST 6 HOURS. AVERAGE DT
ON 6 HOURS IS 5.5+. WINDS RADIUS HAVE BEEN RECALIBRATED WITH 0526Z ASCAT SWATH. WITHOUT RECENT MW
PICTURE, IT IS DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT WAS VISBLE THIS MORNING.
SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MI-LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTH. THI
S DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY AND
THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TUESDAY AS THE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
BEFORE ITS LANDFALL, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A BIT STRONGER EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NO
RTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. THE IMPACT OF THIS INCREASE WITH A SHEAR THA
T IS IN THE SAME DIRECTION THAN THE CYCLONE MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO APPRECIATE FOR A SYSTEM LIKE GI
OVANNA WITH A SELF-INDUCED OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT INTENSITY WEAKENS A BIT BEFORE THE
LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR TONIGHT.
THE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN A 80 KM RADIUS FROM ANDOVORANTO. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED T
O WORSEN RAPIDLY WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND MANANJARY WITH INTENSIFYING
RAINS PROGRESSING INLAND THIS NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE, MAINLY OVER THE COAST WITHIN A 150 KM R
ADIUS FROM LANDFALL WHERE GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 100 KM/H. GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 180 KM/H WITHIN A 70 K
M RADIUS, MAINLY SOUTH FROM LANDFALL. STORM SURGE BETWEEN 2,5 TO 3,0 M ARE EXPECTED SOUTH FROM LAN
DFALL AREA. ALL INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTORS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DANG
EROUS CYCLONE.
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ATMOSP
HERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVE
L RIDGE. LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS A RAPID RE-INTENSIFICATION THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL RS
MC FORECAST.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Cycloneye Google the name of that hotel, it's the opposite end of the country to where Giovanna's going to hit. Madagascar is a very large island!

It will weaken while overland but plenty of rain with strong winds will go all the way to the west side and Euro forecasts it to reintensifie once over the channel.

Yup, I'm in no doubt the areas which Giovanna is going to hit, even on the west coast, are going to get a rough ride. However that webcam location is going to be entirely unscathed since it's over 600km away from forecast landfall track!! I marked the hotel in black!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Chacor]

One METAR I can find that's fairly close to the storm is St-Marie Aerodrome at 17°05'S 049°49'E:
FMMS 131200Z 30027KT 8000 -RA BKN017 OVC250 26/24 Q1001

Another one at Tamatave at 18°07'S 049°24'E (height 6 m):
FMMT 131300Z 24023KT 6000 -RA FEW007 BKN017 OVC090 25/24 Q0997 TEMPO 24020G38KT

[HURAKAN]

EWRC

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.0S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.8S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.3S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.6S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.8S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.9S 35.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 50.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN INTENSE TC WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WIDE
EYE AND OUTER FEEDER BANDS CURRENTLY EFFECTING EASTERN MADAGASCAR. A
131232Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AND OUTER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE INNER EYEWALL CONVECTION. TC 12S IS CLEARLY
UNDERGOING ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) BUT IS ALSO 120
NM AWAY FROM LANDFALL. THE ERC MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO COMPLETE
THE PROCESS. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES, THAN INTENSITIES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER AS TC GIOVANNA MAKES LANDFALL, BUT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
WOULD ALSO INCREASE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115-127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES,
FMEE, AND FIMP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 12S HAS
MAINTAINED ITS SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
GIOVANNA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 12, THEN WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL AND
TOPOGRAPHIC DRAG, AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY TAU 36
BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE BY TAU 120. TC 12S SHOULD BRIEFLY RE-INTENSIFY WHEN OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BUT BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 96 DUE TO LIMITED
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDN AND ECMWF WHICH BRING THE VORTEX POLEWARD AFTER TAU 72. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

stunning image as the system moves closer

[HURAKAN]

appears to be weakening, good news

[Chacor]

MF strengthens to 932 hPa. Winds remain 100 kt.

Forecast:
12h 30 kt, overland depression
24h 25 kt, tropical disturbance

WTIO21 FMEE 131828
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 13/02/2012 A 1800 UTC.
NUMERO: 020/9 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE)

AVIS D'OURAGAN
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 13/02/2012 A 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GIOVANNA) 932 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 50.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES DEUX EST) A 1800 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A A 350 MN
DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST.

OURAGAN 65/100 KT ET MER ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU
CENTRE.
TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 85 MN AUTOUR DU
CENTRE.
COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 120
MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 145 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
EST.
GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 170 MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 14/02/2012 A 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
A 24H POUR LE 14/02/2012 A 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURBATION TROPICALE

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES :
NEANT=

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 131849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 50.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 310 SW: 300 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 210
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SW: 150 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
24H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 36.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0- ET CI=6.0
SSMIS 13/1357Z SHOWS AN NOT COMPLETED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS THEREFORE MORE EXTENDED AND DANGEROUS WITHIN LANDFALL
AND CYCLONIC SWELL HIGHER.
INNER EYEWALL IS CONTRACTING AND MSLP HAS BEEN THEREFORE ADJUSTED.
THE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ANDOVORANTO AND VATOMANDRY REGIONS.
GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 120 KM/H IN AN AREA FROM MANANJARY IN THE SOUTH TO SAINTE-MATIE ISLAND IN THE
NORTH, SHOULD EXCEED 150 KM/H FROM NOSY-VARIKA IN THE SOUTH TO TOAMASINA IN THE NORTH AND SHOULD E
XCEED 200 KM/H FROM MAHANORO IN THE SOUTH UP TO 90 KM IN THE NORTH OF ANDOVORANTO.
COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED CLOSE IN THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE COM
BINED EFFECT OF A STORM SURGE ESTIMATED AT 2.5 TO 3.0 METERS AND A MORE THAN 12M HIGH CYCLONIC SWE
LL.
ALL INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTORS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DANGEROUS CYCLON
E.
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHER
IC ENVIRONMENT WITH A DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL R
IDGE. LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS A RAPID RE-INTENSIFICATION THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL RSMC
FORECAST.

[Chacor]

FMMT 132000Z 32037G62KT 4000 RA FEW007 BKN017 OVC033 ///// Q0987