WPAC: SAOLA - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

5day forecast track from JMA

[Meow]

The JTWC misspelt it as Saoala.



WTPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOALA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.1N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.9N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.3N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.9N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.1N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 125.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

jtwc forecast this to slam the tall mountain ranges of Taiwan, might unleash "Morakot-ish" rainfall.

[whetherornot]

jtwc forecast this to slam the tall mountain ranges of Taiwan, might unleash "Morakot-ish" rainfall.

Please say not. The Island hasn't recovered from Morakot yet - we still have roads closed that may never open again. The Southern Cross Island Highway was just possibly in the top 5 of the most beautiful drives/rides, anywhere.
It's a perfect afternoon here in Kaohsiung. Hot, sticky, but no afternoon thunderstorm. Been for a long cycle ride up into the foothills, may not get another for a few days. CWB posting a track just South of Hengchun Peninsula 31st/1st.

Martin

[cycloneye]

TS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 28 July 2012
<Analyses at 28/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°50'(15.8°)
E125°35'(125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05'(18.1°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°25'(20.4°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

[madness]

jtwc forecast this to slam the tall mountain ranges of Taiwan, might unleash "Morakot-ish" rainfall.

I hope you are wrong. Morakot (2009) had a very large diameter of about 1,500km and a central pressure of 945HPa and was moving very slowly when it hit Taiwan. Actually, it was stationary at one point when it dumped an insane amount of rainfall on Taiwan.

Fingers crossed Taiwan does not get a repeat

As a comparison TS Saola is 996HPa with a diameter of 740km but it will intensify.

[mrbagyo]

I also hope I'm wrong, its just a possibility, but look at the colorized infrared, its not just showing reds, but blacks. the only best thing to do is to be prepared for the worst

[dexterlabio]

is it just dmax that's causing the huge blow up of convection or simply a strong CDO feature forming?

[dexterlabio]

one can just imagine what this would develop into.



while i assume that small compact center being obscured by cold cloud tops would form an eye soon...

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.1N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.8N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.8N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.0N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.8N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.8N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 125.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND
291500Z. //
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTREMELY BROAD SYSTEM
THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS COVERED WITH A COLD DENSE OVERCAST. EXTENSIVE
FORMATIVE BANDS ARE NOW MORE DEFINED AND CONTINUOUS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 281133Z 37HZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
DISTINCT LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES AND RJTD RANGING FROM 30 TO 42 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AREA OF
LIGHT (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY
A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOWS, ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE NER, RESPECTIVELY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD TAIWAN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER. DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, BECOMING A TYPHOON
BEFORE TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY LOOSE
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, FAVORING A
STRONGER STEERING RIDGE AND NOGAPS AND GFS DEPICTING AN ABRUPT
DEFLECTION TO THE RIGHT AFTER TAU 12, POSSIBLY HINTING OF EXCESSIVE
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (E-DCI) WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
C. AFTER TAU 96, TS SAOLA IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON A FLATTER, MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS JAPAN
RE-BUILDS AND ASSUMES STEERING. THE CYCLONE WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL
INTO TAIWAN AS A STRONG TYPHOON AFTER TAU 96. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE ABRUPT AND UNLIKELY
DEFLECTION OF GFS AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE E-DCI AND INCONSISTENT MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
IS NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY NOGAPS. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

wow! saola is exploding and it looks like a monster in the making! is that an eye?


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 997.7mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.2 3.7

TPPN11 PGTW 281507

A. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA)

B. 28/1432Z

C. 16.4N

D. 126.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET
AND PT ARE 2.5. DBO PT AS LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA OVER LLCC
PREVENTS ACCURATE WRAP. HEDGED FINAL DECISION TOWARD MET, WHICH
REMAINS 2.5. WILL MONITOR FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1133Z 15.6N 126.3E SSMS
28/1226Z 16.2N 126.1E ASCT
28/1227Z 15.9N 126.7E MMHS


LONG

[Typhoon Hunter]

Saola is showing some very very deep convection right now and as a betting man I'm happy to wager this storm will peak much stronger than 75kts 1 min that JTWC is showing given current model forecasts. Model spread for track is pretty significant at the moment but Taiwan and the Ryuku islands still looks prime target for a major landfall!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mrbagyo]

yeah, cold cloud tops earlier means intensification is about to begin, I wont be surprised if I wake up tomorrow and see a doughnut. ....like jangmi in 2008, good night and be safe

[dexterlabio]

TH do you have any plans on intercepting this storm? i think this is gonna be an interesting storm to track, and for now a landfall in Taiwan seems likely. a major system out of this IMO is possible especially if the storm does slow down in its motion, as what some forecasts are showing...giving it more time over warm sea surface temp and pockets of low shear.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[Meow]

45 knots (10-min)





TS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 28 July 2012

<Analyses at 28/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°20'(18.3°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35'(20.6°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N21°55'(21.9°)
E121°05'(121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

i kinda agree with JTWC on this system being withheld at 35kts... latest microwave suggests banding but not a whole lot especially when you compare it with the seemingly impressive signature on IR.. scatterometer passes early last night also showing winds of 30 to 35kts... probably a case of Central Cold Cover

ADT is now at 53kt although the SATCON is keeping it at around 41kts...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 29 July 2012
<Analyses at 29/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°00'(17.0°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°50'(18.8°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°10'(20.2°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°35'(21.6°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi Dexter, yes I'll head to Taiwan if the track's don't change too much.

Big concern for this is the slow forecast track near Taiwan, if it verifies will bring threat of bad flooding for sure!

[dexterlabio]

jtwc and jma are totally on separate ways with this, position-wise,track-wise and intensity-wise...

[cycloneye]

Is not late to congrat our friend James on his birthday and have many more years of chasing.