ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Vortex]

By June standards this has significant potential...

[Weatherfreak000]

we will call that slight movement and a drift. even stationary system are not technically stationary. in that 24 hours period it barely moved is all i meant.

Well the next trough is no where in sight...

Both GFS and EURO pick up on a 2nd trof and have been......nothing new here...so far.

[ROCK]

if the EURO follows the CMC...what a coup....

that and the NAM, UKMET....well maybe not those...

[Aric Dunn]

144 drfting westward towards southern texas ... look at the trough over florida it just barely misses it. too many unknowns still
http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=144

[ROCK]

and there is it, westward we go....

all hail the mighty CMC!

[tolakram]

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

[South Texas Storms]

and there is it, westward we go....

all hail the mighty CMC!

Yes sir! Now we have some more model support for Texas.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012062118, , BEST, 0, 217N, 890W, 20, 1008, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Rgv20]

144 drfting westward towards southern texas ... look at the trough over florida it just barely misses it. too many unknowns still
http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=144

Like the ECMWF Ensembles have been consistently showing.....too much uncertainty to make a call, its still fair game for Florida or Texas. Hopefully we will get a better idea by tomorrow or the weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

and there is it, westward we go....

all hail the mighty CMC!

Yes sir! Now we have some more model support for Texas.

well they were doing this two ago as well. still too many variables. its normal back and forth.

[Cainer]

Pressure is pretty low for only 20 knot winds, does anyone know the ambient pressure in the Gulf?

[ROCK]

I see a 996mb in there....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif


ouch http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

[cycloneye]

First Tropical model run:

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 211828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC THU JUN 21 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120621 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120621  1800   120622  0600   120622  1800   120623  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.7N  89.0W   21.9N  89.4W   22.3N  89.6W   22.4N  89.9W
BAMD    21.7N  89.0W   22.0N  88.9W   22.2N  89.0W   22.8N  88.8W
BAMM    21.7N  89.0W   21.9N  89.0W   22.1N  89.2W   22.4N  89.2W
LBAR    21.7N  89.0W   22.4N  89.0W   23.2N  89.3W   24.2N  89.6W
SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          29KTS          36KTS
DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          29KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120623  1800   120624  1800   120625  1800   120626  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.0N  90.1W   23.3N  89.9W   22.6N  89.9W   22.2N  90.7W
BAMD    23.6N  88.7W   24.8N  88.7W   25.1N  89.3W   25.1N  89.7W
BAMM    23.1N  89.2W   23.7N  88.9W   23.4N  88.8W   23.4N  89.7W
LBAR    25.5N  89.9W   27.1N  89.8W   27.1N  90.1W   27.5N  90.1W
SHIP        43KTS          58KTS          62KTS          60KTS
DSHP        43KTS          58KTS          62KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.7N LONCUR =  89.0W DIRCUR =  20DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  20.9N LONM12 =  89.9W DIRM12 =  13DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  20.0N LONM24 =  90.2W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Aric Dunn]

168 hurricane or close to it turning nw and a trough coming down.


http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=168

[Stormcenter]

That's funny when you think almost everyone had this going to Florida 6 hours ago. You just never know with these things.
Who knows, it stll may end up going toward Fl. when all is said and done, of course assuming that it does in fact
develop. We shall see.

and there is it, westward we go....

all hail the mighty CMC!

Yes sir! Now we have some more model support for Texas.

[tolakram]

[ROCK]

this is the CMC but with a EURO tag on it....same run almost...I see it down to 994mb....hard to tell...going up the coast....

[CrazyC83]

A storm there in late June likely will have weak steering currents. It could go just about anywhere.

[Tampa_God]

and there is it, westward we go....

all hail the mighty CMC!

No! Come back to Florida.