EPAC: ALETTA - Post Tropical

[HURAKAN]

20120513 1745 9.5 104.6 T1.5/1.5 90E

[Yellow Evan]

Yay, Dovark numbers now.

[CrazyC83]

TD1-E soon perhaps?

[Cyclenall]

TD1-E soon perhaps?

Hopefully, I was wishing for it to become a TD later today but early tomorrow morning will do. I would think by now the pressure would start dropping a bit faster. Central convection is improving with a large feeder rainband forming to the east of it.

I tried to find an index of all the May tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific basin but couldn't find one. I thought Wunderground had that type of thing where you specify criteria for either basin but I guess not...on a related note, I recall the CSU outlook for the Atlantic (which I disagree with) that was released early this April sporting some analogue years and one of those was 2001. If you look at the Epac in May 2001, you had Hurricane Adolph so I'm curious if there is any connection (May Epac pattern in general to this year).

Its about time it got its own floater, now the "new format" can be expended:



Here is 90E at sunrise:



This is what shook me awake:



TCHP for Epac:



On the TCHP map page, it has all the updated images for current times (1 day old) but if you click on the loops for the eastern Pacific ones, its from mid-June 2009 which is nearly 3 years old...interesting how that shows up while the previous ones (historical data) only goes back two years at a time (why?).

At this area for the floater, does anyone else notice the images are larger in file size than usual? They were showing up as 400 KB files when normally they are around 100 KB.

[cycloneye]

We should have TD 1-E sooner rather than later.

[CrazyC83]

35 kt on that ASCAT pass but rain-contaminated.

[cycloneye]

Code Red-60%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
520 PM PDT SUN MAY 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[NDG]

IMO, it should be a TD by early morning at the latest, it just needs deeper convection closer to its COC.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 90E is almost to tropical depression status. Just some more deep convection is all it needs...

[brunota2003]

It has nice spin to it on the satellite images. Definitely has that developing feeling/look to it!

[Yellow Evan]

Go 90E!

[HURAKAN]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF A
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

I tried to find an index of all the May tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific basin but couldn't find one.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Search by Ocean Basin, then refine by timeframe.

Eastern North Pacific cyclones* forming in May in the available EPac database:

1951 unnamed TS
1952 unnamed TS
1953 TS Alice*
1956 unnamed hurricane (cat 1)
1956 unnamed TS
1970 Hurricane Adele (1)
1971 Hurricane Agatha (2)
1974 TS Aletta
1977 TS Ava
1977 TD
1978 Hurricane Aletta (1)
1979 Hurricane Andres (2)
1979 TD
1981 TS Adrian
1982 TS Aletta
1982 TD
1983 Major Hurricane Adolph (3)
1984 TS Alma
1984 Hurricane Boris (1)
1986 Hurricane Agatha (1)
1989 TS Adolph
1990 Hurricane Alma (1)
1991 TS Andres
1995 TD
1996 TD
1996 unnamed TS
2000 Hurricane Aletta (2)
2001 Major Hurricane Adolph (4)
2002 Major Hurricane Alma (3)
2003 TS Andres
2004 TS Agatha
2005 Hurricane Adrian (1)
2006 TS Aletta
2007 TS Alvin
2007 TS Barbara
2008 TS Alma
2010 TS Agatha

*Any cyclone which passed through what is defined in the CSC system as being in the EPAC. 1953's Alice was an Atlantic system.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks close to TD status, if not there.

[RL3AO]

Here we go. Advisory at the top of the hour if my conversion to UTC is correct.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902012_ep012012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205141417
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Yellow Evan]

adv still not out yet

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 141450
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2012 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS AHEAD OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON START DATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STREGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141452
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE DISTURBANCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1200 UTC WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS NOW ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH MORE
WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS LESS
INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION BEING STEERED ON A WESTWARD COURSE AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AFTER WEAKENING...THE
SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 9.8N 105.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 10.2N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 10.6N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 10.8N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 11.1N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 11.8N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 12.2N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Yellow Evan]

No fear, One-E is here.

[wxman57]

I expect a very active East Pac season in 2012. Conversely, the Atlantic should be quiet numbers-wise.