ATL: INVEST 95L

[SouthernMet]

It sure does have great structure and convection as of right now. It's a matter of can it maintain this deep convection for the next 36 hours until that front (currently to its NNE) passes. After that it's free game in the GOM and can start moving at a faster pace toward the north..

Stay tuned, could get interesting..

[jasons2k]

This needs to be watched closely. I think it has a good chance of development and the GFS has been showing a system moving anywhere from NNW to N to NNE over time.

A very small change in trajectory could make a huge difference in the ultimate landfall location with this one.

[SouthernMet]

Invest 95 looks to moving NNW very slowly.

It's not going to be moving very much till that cool front kicks out of its way.. For now it should remain somewhat stationary or slowly north anything else would be a wobble.

[MGC]

Just belched out some outflow boundaries...so nothing at the surface right now....something to keep an eye on as it has the potential to spin up quickly like Helene did.....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Dean4Storms]

JB thinks it has a chance.....

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 88/photo/1

[FutureEM]

Give credit not just to the GFS but also to the CMC on this one, it seems that both of these globals are doing better then the European which is quite a turn around from seasons past.

[bamajammer4eva]

JB thinks it has a chance.....

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 88/photo/1

He's been saying for days lookout Southeast US-maybe this is what he meant

[northjaxpro]

Glad to see this is now an invest. Well deserved.

I think kudos are in order for the GFS. For days now it has captured this pattern in the WGOM quite well. I used to be a naysayer about the GFS but, in my estimation, it has kicked butt this tropical season.

Yes you are right. The GFS did indeed had a secondary development off the coast in this region of the BOC a couple of days ago. The GFS has done an excellent job this tropical season, no question about that.

[Aric Dunn]

im very surprised they did not make Helene again. but oh well

[northjaxpro]

im very surprised they did not make Helene again. but oh well

I assume that since Helene's parent center moved inland and dissipated the NHC considers this possible secondary development as a separate entity, despite it being in the same vicinity.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[MGC]

There have been multiple tropical cyclones form the same disturbance....so, who knows what the NHC will do if something becomes of 95L. I'm betting that since its a new invest it will be considered a new system......MGC

[KatDaddy]

Yep I saw the Joe B tweet about WGOM mishief this week. There appears to be rotation in the cluster of storms just off the MX Coast. An interesting week in the tropics ahead.

[somethingfunny]

The rules of cyclone designation are pretty clear about when to maintain a system and when to de-activate it and initiate a new one. This definitely isn't Helene; I was surprised they maintained ex-TD7 as 07L when it regenerated, but there's not going to be a third regeneration for 07L. This would be 09L (10L?) if it develops into a cyclone. And the GFS and CMC have both been on this thing for quite a while. Slow northward drift.... I'm not sure that I buy the bullish models that intensify it dramatically. My suspicion is it stays disorganized and struggles with dry air on its' western side, likely developing into a lopsided comma-shaped tropical storm if it develops at all. The bottom line is if this comes north, we get lots of rain in Texas regardless of whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone. More rain if it develops though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[rockyman]

NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

Already,there is a recon thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113403&p=2252430#p2252430

[jabman98]

So if this system forms, the NHC will have been to Helene and back.

Ha! That made me LOL.

Is this an unusual occurrence, where one system has landfall and another system develops right behind it in the same/nearby location?

[vbhoutex]

Just took a look at several different loops on this one. Definitely no surface reflection at this point that I can see. Mid level circ sure seems to be there. It will be very interesting to see what the interaction between the front and 95L is going to be. I didn't think we would have something in that area this soon. I was figuring we would get a cut off low on the tail end of the front in a few days and have heard some discussions of such, but now we have 95L. It is a MUST WATCH in my book for all of the Gulf coast at least to the NO area if not even Mobile/Pensacola area. Track, if there is one to watch, will largely be determined by the actions of the front draped across the Gulf coast right now no matter how strong this system does or does not get.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

Could this be the path that could open up for 94L and whatever it becomes later?

[cycloneye]

Could this be the path that could open up for 94L and whatever it becomes later?

That is definitly a very good question. Let's see how the atmosphere moves the players in the next few days.