ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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Aric Dunn
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#21 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:21 pm

120 hours stationary. looks like its getting left behind. next frame will show it.

http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=120
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#22 Postby tolakram » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:22 pm

saved

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#23 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:23 pm

Looks like it missed the trough this run!
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Re:

#24 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:120 hours stationary. looks like its getting left behind. next frame will show it.

http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/201 ... mb_120.gif



ala CMC run....that showed it 3 runs in a row....all about timing...
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Re: Re:

#25 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:24 pm

ROCK wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:120 hours stationary. looks like its getting left behind. next frame will show it.

http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/201 ... mb_120.gif



ala CMC run....that showed it 3 runs in a row....all about timing...


yeah, its stationary at 120 hours.. at this rate next trough will pick it up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#26 Postby tolakram » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:24 pm

saved

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#27 Postby bqhurricane » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:24 pm

Possibility of hitting NOLA, backing out, then hitting Galveston?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#28 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:25 pm

Man it is really, really going to be a close call with regards of the trough picking up this system. All a matter of timing.

Could indeed be seeing an Elena '85 type scenario.
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ATL: INVEST 96L

#29 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:25 pm

bqhurricane wrote:Possibility of hitting NOLA, backing out, then hitting Galveston?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


that is the CMC run from earlier....we are talking about the EURO that is coming out...
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Re: Re:

#30 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:120 hours stationary. looks like its getting left behind. next frame will show it.

http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/201 ... mb_120.gif



ala CMC run....that showed it 3 runs in a row....all about timing...


yeah, its stationary at 120 hours.. at this rate next trough will pick it up.



No aric, moved slightly west from 96 hrs to 120 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:26 pm

First position of invest 96L.

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#32 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:27 pm

we will call that slight movement and a drift. even stationary system are not technically stationary. in that 24 hours period it barely moved is all i meant.
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Re:

#33 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:we will call that slight movement and a drift. even stationary system are not technically stationary. in that 24 hours period it barely moved is all i meant.


Well the next trough is no where in sight...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L

#34 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:28 pm

Upper level winds have died down considerably and it appears high pressure is building above the low.

Deep-layer wind shear

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#35 Postby latitude_20 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:28 pm

Finally... something to watch! :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#36 Postby stormandan28 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:29 pm

just north of Tampa at 168 hrs
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#37 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:30 pm

There are synoptic pattern differences in 12z euro vs 0z euro. There is an extension of the ridge going to the southeast in 12z. If this is the case my guess is the rest of the run will go west. 0z had lower pressures in Georgia and Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#38 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:30 pm

stormandan28 wrote:just north of Tampa at 168 hrs



That's the 0z run. 12z run isn't out to 144 hours yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#39 Postby tolakram » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:30 pm

This is the run page. 144 not done yet for the 12z run.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html
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Re: Re:

#40 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:30 pm

It's June and not Sept. so the likelihood of another trough picking it up is not high. IMO

South Texas Storms wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:we will call that slight movement and a drift. even stationary system are not technically stationary. in that 24 hours period it barely moved is all i meant.


Well the next trough is no where in sight...
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