ATL: LESLIE - Models

[chaser1]

[/quote]....steering might be in place to push Leslie on a more westward track and quite potentially impact any point from Florida to the Carolina Outer Banks. Should Leslie gain more latitude during the next 48-72 hours only to be caught or stuck in a COL a bit farther north, than I would assume the storm to eventually recurve ahead of the next eventual short wave[/quote]

As an afterthought, it would seem that if greater weight were attributed to the historically accurate EURO model, than there would seem to be much less of a threat to the U.S. Seaboard given the higher latitude that Leslie is forecasted to be at. On the other hand, the GFS has seemingly been more accurate this season and I would be that much more unsettled if tonights 0Z GFS indicates any south and west shift in Leslie's near term forecast.

[edurican]

....steering might be in place to push Leslie on a more westward track and quite potentially impact any point from Florida to the Carolina Outer Banks. Should Leslie gain more latitude during the next 48-72 hours only to be caught or stuck in a COL a bit farther north, than I would assume the storm to eventually recurve ahead of the next eventual short wave[/quote]

As an afterthought, it would seem that if greater weight were attributed to the historically accurate EURO model, than there would seem to be much less of a threat to the U.S. Seaboard given the higher latitude that Leslie is forecasted to be at. On the other hand, the GFS has seemingly been more accurate this season and I would be that much more unsettled if tonights 0Z GFS indicates any south and west shift in Leslie's near term forecast.[/quote]

What would this mean for the Lesser Antilles/ Puerto Rico?

[chaser1]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, in all likelihood I would imagine that either way impacts to Puerto Rico would be minimal. The north coast will likely experience some significant swells generated by the northerly flow from Leslie when the storm is north of the island. My only concern is that a somewhat more westward track might cause the storm to be just west enough ( and below 24N ) to potentially be south of a building mid level ridge that might push the storm towards the U.S. Eastern seaboard. The only circumstances where I could see a greater impact to Puerto Rico would neccessite a significant weakening of the storm overnight and tomm. caused by upper level shear and thus allowing the storm to move more westward in the short term. Right now Leslie appears to be slowly getting more organized and has recently appeared to "stairstep" a bit more to the north. Looks like Leslie is starting to get a bit more with the program and starting to follow NHC's track

I think Puerto Rico will come out fine with this storm and not likely be affected. .

[LarryWx]

Therefore the way I see it, depending on the timing of things.... should Leslie continue to fight shear in the near term and thus be less impacted by the existing weakness to her north and perhaps maintain an increased forward speed and continue a 285 (or less) heading for the next 48-72 hours, than I believe the steering might be in place to push Leslie on a more westward track and quite potentially impact any point from Florida to the Carolina Outer Banks. [/color]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Taking model runs as well as climo into account, I'm going with only about a 3% chance for a SC hit and a mere 1% for a GA or FL hit since there's no ridge progged that would impart enough westward steering to get it to those three states. These numbers are based on climo and my study of hundreds of actual tracks. Compare this to last years's Irene, which was progged on every GFS run from twelve days and every Euro run from eight days out to hit the U.S.

[tolakram]

Hey folks,

the disclaimer is not optional when making a prediction, please remember to add it. You can also put the disclaimer in your signature so you won't have to worry about forgetting.

Thanks.

[fci]

What is that moving over Florida shown on the GFS?

Heh... reminants of Isaac? I didnt see this run shoot it out yet like the past runs have

Seems like several runs have Isaac, or what's left of him; making a return engagement to Florida. Didn't Ivan do that several years ago?

[sfwx]

What is that moving over Florida shown on the GFS?

Heh... reminants of Isaac? I didnt see this run shoot it out yet like the past runs have

Seems like several runs have Isaac, or what's left of him; making a return engagement to Florida. Didn't Ivan do that several years ago?

Yes in 2004 right between Frances and Jeanne!

[Jevo]

0z GFS Initialized



0z GFS +24



0z GFS +48

[Jevo]

0z GFS +72



0z GFS +96



0z GFS +120

[Jevo]

0z GFS +144



0z GFS +168

[Riptide]

The GFS is creating phantom lows again, this run will not threaten any land areas.

[feederband]

What is that moving over Florida shown on the GFS?

Heh... reminants of Isaac? I didnt see this run shoot it out yet like the past runs have

Seems like several runs have Isaac, or what's left of him; making a return engagement to Florida. Didn't Ivan do that several years ago?

Yeah it was the ghost of Ivan...

[Jevo]

0z GFS +192



0z GFS +216

[Jevo]

0z GFS +240



0z GFS +264



0z GFS +288

[Jevo]

0z GFS Full Loop

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[rainstorm]

season may be ending early based on the models

[Jimsot]

Hey folks,

the disclaimer is not optional when making a prediction, please remember to add it. You can also put the disclaimer in your signature so you won't have to worry about forgetting.

Thanks.

This is a test.

[abajan]

Hey folks,

the disclaimer is not optional when making a prediction, please remember to add it. You can also put the disclaimer in your signature so you won't have to worry about forgetting.

Thanks.

I'm almost certain I saw another admin state that putting the disclaimer in your signature won't do (or words to that effect) because it must precede the post. Plus its text states (in part) "The following ..." which wouldn't make any sense in a signature. I've seen lots of members putting the unedited disclaimer either in their signature or just at the end of their posts.

EDIT: My bad. I just realized that the disclaimer doesn't state what I thought it did.

[vbhoutex]

season may be ending early based on the models

Based on what models and why??

[cycloneye]

season may be ending early based on the models

Check the "Global Models Runs Discussion thread" at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&p=2272987#p2272987