WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[HurricaneBill]

Yap was hit hard by Super Typhoon Sudal in 2004.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Watching Bopha closely and will be interesting to see if ECM swings back south. GFS persistently recurving Bopha at the moment. Anyone know any historical typhoons hitting Palau?

EDIT: Looking on Digital Typhoon database I can't see any major storms impacting Palau since 1951, a few TSs and STSs but no strong typhoons.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270317 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 PM CHST TUE NOV 27 2012

CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP AND FOR CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.6 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO
135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
255 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
245 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
2 MPH. BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...4.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
155.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
2 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
8 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 270456
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST TUE NOV 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN NUKUORO ATOLL AND SAPWUAFIK /NGATIK/ ATOLL IN POHNPEI
STATE...AND FOR LUKUNOR AND ITS SURROUNDING ATOLLS...LOSAP...CHUUK
LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP AND FOR CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.6 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO
135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
255 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
245 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF
NUKUORO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF LUKUNOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...NUKUORO...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. REMAIN IN SHELTER UNTIL WINDS HAVE
DECREASED. KEEP INFORMED ON THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM POHNPEI
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDE TO 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
DIMINISH FURTHER WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL STORM BOPHA MOVES FURTHER
AWAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET
AND WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET ALONG WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SHORES. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

...LUKUNOR AND NEARBY ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. REMAIN IN SHELTER THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEEP INFORMED ON THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM CHUUK EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO
12 FEET ALONG NORTHEASTERN...EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORES.
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE...AND STORM SURGE
WILL AFFECT ALL EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

...LOSAP AND CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE CHUUK EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. AVOID
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL TO ISLANDS TOWARD THE SOUTH. IF THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA SHIFTS NORTHWARD...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR LOSAP AND CHUUK LAGOON. PRACTICE YOUR TROPICAL
CYCLONE PLAN AND GO OVER SUPPLIES TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD
AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. IDENTIFY A SUITABLE SHELTER IN CASE IT IS
NEEDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY WILL SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO
12 FEET ALONG EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES. INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
COULD OCCUR AT HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MUDSLIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE HIGH ISLANDS OF CHUUK
LAGOON.

...PULUWAT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE CHUUK EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. IF THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA SHIFTS NORTHWARD...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY. PRACTICE YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AND GO
OVER SUPPLIES TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW
DAYS. IDENTIFY A SUITABLE SHELTER IN CASE IT IS NEEDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
IF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA SHIFTS ITS TRACK NORTHWARD...WINDS MAY RISE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
IF BOPHA TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAZARDOUS SURF WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN SHORES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM BOPHA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 900 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[supercane4867]

The 00z GFS still recurves it out to sea, but closer to the Philippines than last run

[supercane4867]

Watching Bopha closely and will be interesting to see if ECM swings back south. GFS persistently recurving Bopha at the moment. Anyone know any historical typhoons hitting Palau?

EDIT: Looking on Digital Typhoon database I can't see any major storms impacting Palau since 1951, a few TSs and STSs but no strong typhoons.

Typhoon Sally and Marie produced gusts over 70kt in Koror
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/port_studies ... /sect3.htm

[mrbagyo]

how about this monster of 1990 : sty Mike

[dexterlabio]

The 00z GFS still recurves it out to sea, but closer to the Philippines than last run

can u post the link? sorry i am also waiting for 00z but i only have the ncep page to check and maybe the page is delayed a little bit. thanks!

EDIT: Okay I saw it. Thanks anyway. Yeah it's about 5 longitudinal degrees nearer compared to the last run. And now they're saying it's gonna enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Now I'm waiting for the Euro to come out. If it switches back to the west solution, and the GFS trends away from the northward solution, then we'll definitely get more serious in here.

[supercane4867]

The 00z GFS still recurves it out to sea, but closer to the Philippines than last run

can u post the link? sorry i am also waiting for 00z but i only have the ncep page to check and maybe the page is delayed a little bit. thanks!

I use the wundermap
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... s=0&rad2=0

[RobWESTPACWX]

All I know is I googled YAP here at work to get some information on the area, and a lot of Topless women popped on my screen, so ya.. be careful of that.

[cycloneye]

The 0900z JTWC track. Peak intensity is now 95kts.

[dexterlabio]

GFS has also gone crack. So much for the model consistencies...

[dexterlabio]

Haha that's funny. At least they should put something on when the storm passes to their south.

All I know is I googled YAP here at work to get some information on the area, and a lot of Topless women popped on my screen, so ya.. be careful of that.

anyway, latest JTWC warning. peak intensity is now at 100kts, close to Palau.

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 4.6N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.6N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 5.0N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 5.3N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 5.4N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 5.4N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 6.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 6.8N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 8.1N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 4.7N 155.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Warning graphic from JTWC

[euro6208]

wow so GFS is more in line with ECMWF...also JTWC has shifted more south compared to previous warnings...Bopha might be a classic *straight runner* to the Philippines....

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271253
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
1100 PM CHST TUE NOV 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) NEARLY STATIONARY...

RESIDENTS OF SATAWAL IN YAP STATE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA...AS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD
BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO
125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
245 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
245 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED
RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM POSITION...4.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
155.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM CHST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 AM.

$$

STANKO

[mrbagyo]

euro now on a recurve scenario?





euro is the most inconsistent as of this time, whats happening??

[supercane4867]

euro now on a recurve scenario?
euro is the most inconsistent as of this time, whats happening??

There's a lot of uncertainty at this point, the future track is largely depends on the subtropical ridge, which is still well intact

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271530
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 AM CHST WED NOV 28 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTENSIFYING...

RESIDENTS OF SATAWAL IN YAP STATE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA...AS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD
BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.2 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO
105 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
255 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
455 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED
RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...4.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 155.2
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
8 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

AYDLETT



WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS CONTINUED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED BROKEN FORMATIVE
BANDING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED
CONVECTION APPARENT IN THE EIR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC,
PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (05 TO 10 KNOTS). TS 26W IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VWS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. INTENSITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK
SPEEDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE LLCC CURRENTLY REMAINS WITHIN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

that's what i don't like about the euro model this year. it's become inconsistent,and becomes much more reliable when the time frame shortens, like 5 days away. i miss the old euro that was accurate even at mid to long-range forecasts...whatever upgrade or changes they did this year, made it worse.

and yeah euro might be inconsistent but the GFS also switched big time from a recurve out to sea to a landfall. I personally don't rely on it yet but if the next run or so will be the same, then we can consider it as a huge possibility.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 994.8mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.0 4.0

center well embedded in an ever increasing CDO...we could have ourselves a typhoon at the moment ...it definitely look stronger than only 45 knots...



I SEE YOU!