SIO: HIDAYA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

SH, 90, 2024042612, , BEST, 0, 50S, 520E, 15, 1007, DB

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 902024.dat

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

A low pressure circulation could develop north of Madagascar with a moderate risk (30-60%) that it will reach the moderate tropical storm stage from Tuesday. The uncertainties regarding the development of this suspect area as well as its movement remain very significant. It is therefore still too early to specify the possible threats to the islands in the area.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

DISTURBED AREA number 10

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1003 hPa.

Position on April 30 at 4 p.m. local: 7.7 South / 45.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1840 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 580 km to sector: NORTH

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

Disturbed zone 10-20232024 is located 230km northwest of the coasts of Aldabra and 400km northeast of the coasts of Grande Comores. This system is forecast to move south on Wednesday while intensifying to tropical storm stage and then moving west-northwest starting on Thursday. The probability of impacts is increasing for Aldabra and the Comoros. A deterioration of conditions is expected to continue in Aldabra and the Comoros. It is strongly recommended to closely monitor the development of the system and prepare for a possible threat.

Very heavy rain is expected over Aldabra but also possible over the Comoros depending on the trajectory and intensity of the system

Strong winds are also possible over Aldabra and Grande Comores depending on the track and intensity of the system.

Very heavy seas with waves of 4 to 6m are expected near the Comorian coast on Thursday and Friday.

[cycloneye]

A tropical #cyclone should consolidate this Wednesday, then be named #HIDAYA and strengthen somewhat by taking a tangent towards the West towards #Afrique and directly avoiding the islands located further south, including #Mayotte . Heavy thunderstorms are still possible over the next few days. This may well be the last tropical cyclone phenomenon of the season in the region.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 10

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.

Position on May 1 at 10 a.m. local: 9.2 South / 45.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1675 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 410 km to sector: NORTH

Travel: SOUTH, at 9 km/h.

System information:

- The cloud configuration of the tropical depression system continues to improve but still remains at the Tropical Depression stage.

- Still currently heading south, the system should curve its course towards the south-southwest then west-southwest over the next 12 hours. The system should then circulate today to the west of Aldabra at a distance of around 100 km.

- Over the next 36 hours, Tropical Depression 10-20232024 is expected to continue to intensify regularly to reach the probable stage of Severe Tropical Storm and cause it to circulate north of the Comoros archipelago.

- However, the evolution of the system on the north of the canal could generate a strong deterioration of weather conditions, particularly in terms of heavy rains, and sea state, for the island of Aldabra and the Comoros archipelago . Also, it is strongly recommended to closely monitor the evolution of the system and prepare for a possible threat.

- Indeed, significant accumulations of rain within 48 hours are expected on the Comoros archipelago as well as on the island of Aldabra. Average waves above 4m and maximum waves possibly high up to 8m maximum are expected from Friday in the north of the Comoros archipelago, moving at the end of the week along the Tanzanian coasts and the province of Cabo Delgado from Mozambique. The waves will be less marked on Aldabra.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Not many TCs have ventured where 23S is currently. Even more unprecedented is the type of track it's forecasted to take.

[Hurricanehink]

For reference, that city in the path of what is now Hidaya is the six-largest in Africa - Dar es Salaam has a population of 5.3 million people

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 10

(HIDAYA)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.

Position on May 1 at 10 p.m. local time: 8.7 South / 44.9 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1755 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 460 km to sector: NORTH

Movement: WEST, at 7 km/h.

System information:

- The structure of the tropical depression system has improved and its intensity has strengthened. It has now reached the stage of a moderate tropical storm and has been named HIDAYA.

- The system has curved its course towards the west then should soon move towards the west-southwest during the next 24 hours, intensifying regularly. By Thursday it should reach the probable stage of a Severe Tropical Storm and circulate north of the Comoros archipelago.

- However, the evolution of the system on the north of the canal could generate a strong deterioration of weather conditions, particularly in terms of heavy rains, and sea state, for the island of Aldabra and the Comoros archipelago . Also, it is strongly recommended to closely monitor the evolution of the system and prepare for a possible threat.

- Indeed, significant accumulations of rain within 48 hours are expected on the Comoros archipelago as well as on the island of Aldabra. Average waves above 4m and maximum waves possibly high up to 8m maximum are expected from Friday in the north of the Comoros archipelago, moving at the end of the week along the Tanzanian coasts and the province of Cabo Delgado from Mozambique. The waves will be less marked on Aldabra.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 10

(HIDAYA)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 998 hPa.

Position on May 2 at 4 a.m. local time: 9.0 South / 44.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1755 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 440 km to sector: NORTH

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 7 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HIDAYA has curved its course towards the west-southwest and is expected to keep this trajectory for the next 12 hours before heading due west then northwest. It is intensifying regularly and is expected to reach the probable stage of a Severe Tropical Storm by Thursday evening while circulating north of the Comoros archipelago.

- The evolution of the system to the north of the canal could generate a significant deterioration in weather conditions, particularly in terms of heavy rains, and sea conditions, for the island of Aldabra and the Comoros archipelago. Also, it is strongly recommended to closely monitor the evolution of the system and prepare for a possible threat.

- Indeed, significant accumulations of rain within 48 hours are expected on the Comoros archipelago as well as on the island of Aldabra. Average waves close to 4m and maximum waves possibly high up to 8m maximum are expected from Friday in the north of the Comoros archipelago, moving at the end of the week along the Tanzanian coasts and the province of Cabo Delgado from Mozambique. The waves will be less marked on Aldabra.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 10

(HIDAYA)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 995 hPa.

Position on May 2 at 10 a.m. local: 9.0 South / 44.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1785 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 440 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HIDAYA will continue to move due west in the next 24 hours before curving its trajectory towards the northwest. It is steadily intensifying and is expected to reach probable Severe Tropical Storm status by this evening. It should then weaken during the day on Friday before dissipating near the Tanzanian coast this weekend.

- The evolution of the system to the north of the canal is still generating heavy rains and rough seas for the island of Aldabra and the Comoros archipelago. Also, it is strongly recommended to closely monitor the evolution of the system. However, the threat of a direct impact on Grande Comore now appears to be receding.

- Degraded conditions are expected on the southern coasts of Tanzania and the Cabo Delgado province of Mozambique from Friday afternoon with rough seas, strong winds and heavy rain. The extent of the degradation remains to be clarified.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1786040750221697281

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1786123437263532208

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 10

(HIDAYA)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 985 hPa.

Position on May 2 at 10 p.m. local time: 9.0 South / 43.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1825 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 460 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Travel: WEST, at 9 km/h.

System information:

- HIDAYA has intensified in the last hours and reached the stage of Severe Tropical Storm. It is located at 10 p.m. this evening about 300km north of Grande Comores and continues its movement towards the West then the North-West.

- HIDAYA should further intensify in the coming hours while remaining at the Strong Tropical Storm stage (but a passage of the Tropical Cyclone stage is not completely excluded) before weakening within 24 hours and more clearly on Saturday. It is expected to dissipate near the coast of Tanzania this weekend.

- HIDAYA is still generating heavy rain for the island of Aldabra and the Comoros archipelago in the next 24-36 hours. It is strongly recommended to closely monitor the evolution of the system.

- Degraded conditions are expected on the southern coasts of Tanzania and the northern Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique from Friday afternoon, particularly in terms of precipitation and heavy seas.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 10

(HIDAYA)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 979 hPa.

Position on May 3 at 4 a.m. local time: 8.8 South / 43.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1840 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 480 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Movement: WEST, at 6 km/h.

System information:

- HIDAYA has continued its rapid intensification in recent hours and has reached the stage of Tropical Cyclone. With a slow movement towards the West, it is located at 04h about 300km north of Grande Comore and continues its movement towards the West-North-West then the North-West.

- HIDAYA should maintain this intensity over the next 12 hours before weakening by evening and then more clearly tomorrow. It is expected to dissipate near the coast of Tanzania during the night from Saturday to Sunday.

- The associated heavy rains on Aldabra are starting to attenuate it, while they are still expected on Grande Comore today before improving in the evening.

- Degraded conditions are expected on the southern coasts of Tanzania and to a lesser extent on the northern Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique from this evening, particularly in terms of precipitation and heavy seas. Residents are invited to keep up to date with developments in the system.

[cycloneye]

Eye popping up.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 10

(HIDAYA)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 976 hPa.

Position on May 3 at 10 a.m. local: 8.5 South / 42.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1935 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 560 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.

System information:

- HIDAYA remained at the Cyclone Tropical stage this Friday morning and seems close to its peak intensity. This is a historically intense phenomenon for this part of the basin (the CT intensity is unprecedented northwest of 10°S/45°E). It is also a compact phenomenon with an extension of severe windy conditions restricted to a perimeter of less than 100 km around the eye, therefore only affecting maritime areas for the moment. The system is in fact located approximately 350 km north-northwest of Grande Comore and approximately 350 km east of the Tanzanian coast while continuing its movement towards the west-northwest.

- The intensity of HIDAYA should plateau or even slightly decrease by this evening, then its weakening should be more rapid from next night due to environmental conditions becoming more unfavorable. It could nevertheless still be close to the Moderate Tropical Storm stage tomorrow Saturday when it approaches the coasts of Tanzania, which is a very rare event for the area. It should then dissipate near the coast overnight from Saturday to Sunday.

- Degraded conditions are therefore expected on the coast of Tanzania from next night but especially during the day of Saturday and the following night, mainly between Dar Es Salaam and Mtwara, with in particular a risk of very intense rains which could cause flooding as well than a dangerous sea state. Strong winds are also likely locally on the coastal fringe near Mafia Island. The planned trajectory having been revised a little further north, the predicted impacts are revised downwards slightly for northern Mozambique (Cabo Delgado province) even if disturbed conditions are still expected near the Tanzanian border. Residents are invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.

- The rains are now starting to ease over the Comoros archipelago and Aldabra.