ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109241514
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011092412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011092312, , BEST, 0, 243N, 763W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011092318, , BEST, 0, 250N, 770W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011092400, , BEST, 0, 258N, 775W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011092406, , BEST, 0, 266N, 779W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011092412, , BEST, 0, 275N, 781W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0,

Thread that was the topic for this area of interest at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111955&hilit=&start=0

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 241516
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1516 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110924 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110924  1200   110925  0000   110925  1200   110926  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.5N  78.1W   29.2N  78.6W   31.4N  79.4W   33.9N  79.4W
BAMD    27.5N  78.1W   29.8N  78.4W   33.3N  78.5W   38.0N  78.0W
BAMM    27.5N  78.1W   29.6N  78.7W   32.6N  79.0W   36.2N  78.4W
LBAR    27.5N  78.1W   30.1N  78.1W   34.0N  77.3W   39.0N  75.5W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          37KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          28KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110926  1200   110927  1200   110928  1200   110929  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    37.1N  78.8W   43.7N  77.4W   49.6N  78.1W   54.0N  75.0W
BAMD    42.5N  75.9W   43.3N  65.8W   37.2N  54.7W   32.3N  44.0W
BAMM    39.9N  76.8W   45.3N  73.9W   51.3N  74.9W   56.2N  76.1W
LBAR    42.8N  71.5W   38.4N  55.9W   33.3N  51.2W   32.1N  51.1W
SHIP        41KTS          37KTS          30KTS          22KTS
DSHP        28KTS          30KTS          30KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  27.5N LONCUR =  78.1W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  25.8N LONM12 =  77.5W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  24.3N LONM24 =  76.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   15KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[northjaxpro]

Just from my observation based on visible and IR imagery, there is a possible low level center just north of Grand Bahama Island. My rough estimate is 27.5 N 78.5 W.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

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[AdamFirst]

I wish that blob was on top of us...a good extra couple inches over Lake Okeechobee would be nice

[northjaxpro]

91L has a small window of opportunity to spin up into a TD or minimal TS. It appears that within about 36 hours or so the system will pick up in forward speed and will likely come ashore somewhere in Eastern NC or the coastal region/Outer Banks. Then it looks to bring more rain up the East Coast during next week.

[Florida1118]

91L has a small window of opportunity to spin up into a TD or minimal TS. It appears that within about 36 hours or so the system will pick up in forward speed and will likely come ashore somewhere in Eastern NC or the coastal region/Outer Banks. Then it looks to bring more rain up the East Coast during next week.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In my opinion this wont be much, but then again it could be a Bret. So only time will tell...

[cycloneye]

The squadron is going on Sunday afternoon (If Necessary)

KNHC 241545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 24 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-116

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0416A OPHELIA
C. 25/1630Z
D. 20.4N 59.8W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 25/1400Z
D. 28.0N 78.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. 26/1800Z FIX FOR OPHELIA NEAR 22.3N 62.5W.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT AREA AT 26/1200Z
NEAR 30.0N 78.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
4. REMARK: POSSIBLE P-3 RESEARCH MISSION INTO OPHELIA
DEPARTING AT 25/1400Z.

[lilybeth]

Up to 20%. Does it look like they'll bump it more in the next update? Too bad it can't get to Texas. I keep wishing they'd get a nice soak.

[Tstormwatcher]

And here I thought eastern NC were finally in the clear from any tropical systems. Hopefully it will just be a rain event for us.

[northjaxpro]

And here I thought eastern NC were finally in the clear from any tropical systems. Hopefully it will just be a rain event for us.

BTW, I am sorry to forget the disclaimer mods! I will be mindful to always include them when discussing evolution of invests /storms.

Tstormwatcher, yeah hopefully 91L will not be nothing more than just another rain event.91L has found a very small nose of an anticyclone to breathe a little bit. However, the shear will eventually keep this system from developing into anything very significant within the next 48 hours. But, don't let your guard down. Bret formed in this same general area earlier this season along a stalled frontal boundary and he spun up to be a 65 mph tropical storm before he maxed out in intensity


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

KNHC 241545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 24 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-116

Sunday:

2. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 25/1400Z
D. 28.0N 78.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT AREA AT 26/1200Z
NEAR 30.0N 78.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[bg1]

If this and TD 17 become named before October, this season will be on pace with 2005, and I think 91L will become named, seeing as how the atmosphere has been conducive enough to form 6 storms (40%) from cold fronts.

[Florida1118]

If this and TD 17 become named before October, this season will be on pace with 2005, and I think 91L will become named, seeing as how the atmosphere has been conducive enough to form 6 storms (40%) from cold fronts.

If it sit and didnt move I could see it developing, but its moving at 10-15mph per the NHC, which doesnt give it oodles of time

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Plus, in time 91L will eventually increase in forward speed as the system gains latitude. It is moving at 10 -15 mph now, but look for it to move a bit faster within 24-48 hours.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

1. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

[HurrMark]

This could be the biggest tropical "threat" to the US in quite a while (notice I use quotes)...although there is a concern that the remnants could result in flooding in areas that are already waterlogged (just my opinion).

[Hylian Auree]

With respect, what do you mean by "quite a while"?
It hasn't even been a month since Lee and its remnants lashed the Gulf Coast and areas inland as far as PA with flooding.

On-topic, I personally don't think this has much room to develop. 30% is a pretty good estimate, and it should remain as such unless patent developments occur.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 91, 2011092418, , BEST, 0, 279N, 779W, 20, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 241743
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1743 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110924 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110924  1800   110925  0600   110925  1800   110926  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.9N  77.9W   29.8N  78.6W   32.2N  78.8W   34.8N  78.5W
BAMD    27.9N  77.9W   30.4N  78.2W   34.2N  78.2W   38.8N  76.9W
BAMM    27.9N  77.9W   30.3N  78.5W   33.6N  78.4W   37.3N  77.0W
LBAR    27.9N  77.9W   30.2N  77.8W   33.8N  77.4W   38.3N  75.8W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          36KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110926  1800   110927  1800   110928  1800   110929  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    38.1N  76.9W   43.8N  75.5W   49.9N  75.2W   54.7N  71.3W
BAMD    42.6N  73.4W   40.5N  61.3W   34.2N  46.6W   35.0N  25.3W
BAMM    40.6N  74.7W   43.6N  70.1W   46.3N  66.4W   52.3N  59.4W
LBAR    42.0N  72.1W   38.2N  57.3W   32.9N  52.5W   30.7N  49.9W
SHIP        39KTS          31KTS          22KTS          20KTS
DSHP        29KTS          32KTS          29KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  27.9N LONCUR =  77.9W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  26.5N LONM12 =  77.6W DIRM12 = 343DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  25.0N LONM24 =  77.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   15KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


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