ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

[Meso]

BEST TRACK: AL90, 122N 190W, 25kts, DB

[Meso]

Post the model runs for 90L.

It looks as though both the EURO and GFS are developing this system within the next 3 days.

[Gustywind]

Code Yellow 20%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL
ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Where is this storm? I dont see a floater?

[Meso]

Updated BT: BEST TRACK: AL90, 122N 190W, 25kts, 1008mb, DB INVEST

Initialized at 1008mb

[Meso]

There won't be a floater for a while as it was just designated a few minutes ago, it's located just off the African coast, exact details in the BT and the TWO.

[Preppie]

It looks as though both the EURO and GFS are developing this system within the next 3 days.

I'm a bit confused (not an unusual condition for me)--when you all write "EURO," are you referring to "UKMET" or is it something different?

[cycloneye]

It looks as though both the EURO and GFS are developing this system within the next 3 days.

I'm a bit confused (not an unusual condition for me)--when you all write "EURO," are you referring to "UKMET" or is it something different?

ECMWF.

[Gustywind]

NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... bw&PROD=ir

20110823.0845.90LINVEST.25kts-NAmb-122N-190W.

[cycloneye]

First model plots. Looks like the second hurricane of 2011.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 231206
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1206 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110823 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110823  0600   110823  1800   110824  0600   110824  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N  19.0W   12.7N  20.7W   13.8N  22.6W   15.0N  24.9W
BAMD    12.2N  19.0W   12.7N  21.5W   13.1N  23.9W   13.4N  26.2W
BAMM    12.2N  19.0W   12.9N  21.3W   13.5N  23.8W   14.1N  26.4W
LBAR    12.2N  19.0W   12.4N  21.7W   12.9N  24.5W   13.6N  27.4W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110825  0600   110826  0600   110827  0600   110828  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.0N  27.0W   16.8N  29.3W   16.8N  29.0W   16.1N  29.3W
BAMD    13.5N  28.4W   14.1N  32.2W   15.1N  33.6W   15.5N  33.3W
BAMM    14.6N  28.9W   15.3N  32.0W   15.8N  32.7W   16.0N  32.4W
LBAR    14.5N  30.2W   16.4N  34.7W   18.3N  37.4W   17.9N  38.7W
SHIP        56KTS          72KTS          79KTS          79KTS
DSHP        56KTS          72KTS          79KTS          79KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR =  19.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  12.3N LONM12 =  16.8W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  12.6N LONM24 =  14.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[x-y-no]

I'm presuming this is the system the Euro was developing last night.

[Nightwatch]

so... more underway... wait and see where these goes :{

[HurricaneFan]

So do the models eventually recurve it or is it to early to tell?
And why are the steering currents so weak all of a sudden in the Eastern Atlantic?(wave is moving 10mph vs 20-25mph).
Is this expected to change in the near future?

[Tampa_God]

Is this the storm that some models have being just northeast of the Lesser Antilles as a pretty big storm?

[Macrocane]

This system is developed by the Euro, GFS and UKMET, it is expected to follow a north/northwestern track so I don't think anyone need to worry, could be like Lisa last year.

[Meteorcane]

Does this look like a recurver at this point?

[Preppie]

It looks as though both the EURO and GFS are developing this system within the next 3 days.

I'm a bit confused (not an unusual condition for me)--when you all write "EURO," are you referring to "UKMET" or is it something different?

ECMWF.

Thank you.

[KWT]

Yeah probably will follow 98L, I suspect conditions will be a little more favourable for this one though.

[KWT]

It should be a recurver, not totally sure of a fish, set-up aloft could imply a Bermuda threat a long way down the line.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 925 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. WHILE THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TOWARD WARMER WATERS... UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AREA OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE