WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

Looks a lot like Isabel. Those kind of storms are often windier than the convection suggests. 90 kt is my guess right now.

[Rgv20]

Its good news for Japan that Ma-on did not became as powerful as earlier thought. Its amazing what dry air can do even to a big tropical cyclone like Ma-on.

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 31.2N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 110NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 33.9N 134.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 201800UTC 33.1N 138.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 211800UTC 32.0N 142.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 30.8N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.5N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 33.8N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.9N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 33.7N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.4N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 34.6N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 37.1N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 132.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 448 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
SPIRAL BANDING EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF TY MA-ON WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANT. A 181752Z 89 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH DIFFLUENCE IMPROVING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WHICH MAY BE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. MA-ON CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD NEAR 33N LATITUDE AS WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO MODIFY THE STEERING RIDGE. AS THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EAST OF JAPAN AND A MORE
DOMINANT RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST, MA-ON IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DIP IN TRACK AFTER TAU 48. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING
SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN OF SHIKOKU AND
HONSHU, JAPAN. INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS MA-ON
TREKS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN THROUGH TAU 72. INCREASED
DIFFLUENCE, CONTINUED FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW MA-ON TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AT TAU 96
BEFORE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z,
190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

TXPQ26 KNES 182108
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 18/2032Z
C. 31.3N
D. 132.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...9 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
18/1650Z 30.7N 132.7E AMSRE
...NEWHARD

[Chacor]

JMA holding at 80 kt at 2300 UTC.

2300 UTC estimated position from JMA (足摺岬の南約120km) is 120 km south of Cape Ashizuri.

Reports from the Kinki area of Japan show max winds near 30 kt; pressure around 994-995 hPa. Maximum rainfall ob I've found is 38.5 mm in an hour at Kamikitayama.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA holding at 80 kt at 2300 UTC.

2300 UTC estimated position from JMA (足摺岬の南約120km) is 120 km south of Cape Ashizuri.

Reports from the Kinki area of Japan show max winds near 30 kt; pressure around 994-995 hPa. Maximum rainfall ob I've found is 38.5 mm in an hour at Kamikitayama.

This are the highest wind speeds I could find on JMA website, in southern Shikoku. Starting to howl there with sustained around 56kts with a gust up to almost 80kts. Pressure 981.2hPa - http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-74372.html?groupCode=56&areaCode=213

[brunota2003]

Strongest is 28.0 m/s, or 62 mph, with a gust of 38.9 m/s, or 87 mph

[BigA]

The way this thing has spread out, it has got to have a wide windfield. Hopefully the core stays offshore, but I don't know if there is a sharp cutoff between what's left of the eyewall and the area outside it. Like someone said above, really similar structure to Isabel.

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 31.8N 132.9E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 220NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 34.0N 135.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 210000UTC 32.9N 139.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 220000UTC 31.3N 144.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 230000UTC 33.8N 149.6E 350NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
120HF 240000UTC 37.3N 154.5E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 31.9N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.4N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 34.0N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 33.7N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 33.2N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 31.9N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 34.1N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.0N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 133.1E.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z
AND 200300Z.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MAGI/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)//
WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A TIGHTLY
CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION SPIRALING INWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. MUCH SHALLOWER CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS, INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN 18/0030Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONGER
DIFFLUENT CHANNEL EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS). THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE EXTENDING WELL INTO HONSHU AND KYUSHU WITH
STRONGER BANDS IMPACTING SHIKOKU, PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COAST OF KYUSHU INDICATE WINDS OF 20-
30 KNOTS BETWEEN TOKUSHIMA AND KOSHIGA. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOOP CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY NARROW BAND OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT FROM THE WEST. IMPACTS TO STORM
STRUCTURE ARE MINIMAL, HOWEVER, WITH CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT ONLY SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AS IT
APPROACHES LANDFALL IN SHIKOKU. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77
KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON
A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS
NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 08W IS CRESTING THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A FLATTENING RIDGE
AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP EASTERLY TURN DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
MAINTAINING INTENSITY, HOWEVER MA-ON IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF JAPAN.
DESPITE INTERACTION WITH LAND, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER TAU 36 TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO LOSE LATITUDE
IN RESPONSE TO A FLATTENING AND WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
ADDITIONALLY, A SOUTHWWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF JAPAN WILL AID IN STEERING MA-ON
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 72.
C. TAU 72-96: AFTER TAU 72 TY 08W WILL BEGIN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE. AS MA-ON GAINS
LATITUDE AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 120, A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Flooding and landslides going to be a real problem from this. Deluge in mountainous areas of Shikoku and S Honshu right now. This station recorded over 430mm of rain in last 12hrs - http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... eaCode=213

[HurricaneBill]

Pressure in Shimizu down to 964.8mb.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-74516.html?groupCode=56&areaCode=000

[GCANE]

I ran a HYSPLIT trajectory from Fukushima based on 00Z GFS for the next 24 hrs.

At this point, looks like radiation will fall out into the Sea of Japan.

This may become more of an issue for Honshu in the next few days.

Especially looks like it will be slowing down SE of Tokyo Thursday and Friday.

I'll run trajectories again on updated GFS runs.

Live cam:

http://lucaswhitefieldhixson.com/lucaswebcamwatch.html

[GCANE]

24 hrs ago, core-temp profile was showing a boundary layer inversion.

That has now dissipated.

Rain could now become a big issue for Honshu.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 33.1N 134.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 220NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 33.2N 138.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 211200UTC 32.1N 142.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 221200UTC 33.4N 147.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 32.7N 133.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 133.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 33.5N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.6N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.9N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.0N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 31.5N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 33.9N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 39.5N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 133.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST-SOUTH-
WEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM SHIKOKU, JAPAN,
SHOWS A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT TO MAKE
LANDFALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD RANGING FROM 55 TO 70 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS WITH
LOW VETICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS MAINTAINING A MESOSCALE ANTI-
CYCLONE ALOFT THAT IS AIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE CYCLONE. A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS ALSO EVOLVED AS THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS
EXPOSURE HAS CAUSED ELONGATION ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY 08W HAS BEGUN
TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASED AND AS IT BRUSHES THE COASTS OF SHIKOKU AND HONSHU. IT
WILL THEN RECURVE EASTWARD AND DIP EQUATORWARD AFTER TAU 24 IN
RESPONSE TO A STEEP OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN.
DURING THIS MOMENTARY EQUATORWARD TRACK, THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS VWS RELAXES. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON MA-ON WILL TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING. IT WILL THEN
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH GFDN AS A LEFT OUTLIER IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE SOLID
SECONDARY STEERING RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS ALONGSIDE CONSENSUS
UP TO TAU 48 THEN FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AFTERWARDS,
TO OFFSET GFDN'S UNLIKELY DEFLECTION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z,
192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 191216
A. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)
B. 19/1132Z
C. 33.2N
D. 134.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .55 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL PLUS HALF DT FOR
BANDING FEATURE YIELDS A 3.0DT. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 3.5
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/0803Z 32.9N 133.5E SSMS
19/0848Z 32.9N 133.7E WIND
BELMONDO

[KWT]

Lots of heavy rain moving into S.Japan at the moment, will be interesting to see just how much rain actually ends up falling with this system.

[dwsqos2]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... eaCode=000

Obs from Miroto-misaki:

Peak 10-minute winds of 36.7 m/s at 2200 JST
Minimum pressure of 963 mb at 2100 JST
Peak gust of 46.6 m/s at 2148 JST

[alan1961]

Monitoring the seismic situation along the southern coast of
japan, there have been occasions before in the western pacific
of quakes while typhoons are around and i would'nt
be surprised if one were to occur while Ma-on is raking the coast.

[GCANE]

Monitoring the seismic situation along the southern coast of
japan, there have been occasions before in the western pacific
of quakes while typhoons are around and i would'nt
be surprised if one were to occur while Ma-on is raking the coast.

Yes, very true. Thanks.

[brunota2003]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-74372.html?groupCode=56&areaCode=000

Obs from Miroto-misaki:

Peak 10-minute winds of 36.7 m/s at 2200 JST
Minimum pressure of 963 mb at 2100 JST
Peak gust of 46.6 m/s at 2148 JST

Yep...that is 82.1 mph (10-minute winds) and 104.2 mph (gust) respectively.

[HurricaneBill]

Yanase has received 865mm of rain since yesterday.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-74151.html?groupCode=56&areaCode=000