WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm (20W)

[dexterlabio]

TPPN11 PGTW 250014

A. TROPICAL STORM 20W (NESAT)

B. 24/2332Z

C. 14.7N

D. 130.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF 1.35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 4.0. DBO PT AND
MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/2003Z 14.4N 131.3E SSMI
24/2115Z 14.6N 131.3E SSMS


UEHARA

Expecting a TY from JTWC on their next warning.

[Cranica]

This microwave is several hours old, and already shows development of a strong eyewall about 2/3 closed. Contrast this image, less than three hours earlier:

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 981.1mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 3.7 3.7




nesat intensifying...

[Typhoon10]

JWTC track is scary with almost a direct hit on HK on the 29th! With gusts upto 225kmh! And my mother flies in from the UK that day!

[euro6208]

JWTC track is scary with almost a direct hit on HK on the 29th! With gusts upto 225kmh! And my mother flies in from the UK that day!

ecmwf has nesat passing south of hong kong and making landfall in northern hainan island but we will see...

[ManilaTC]

Track is now more WSW now, i think im seeing just above 14N.

Also the landfall point has shifted from Cagayan to more south into Isabela-Aurora.
Risk is getting higher for folks in entire luzon area

[dexterlabio]

Track is now more WSW now, i think im seeing just above 14N.

Also the landfall point has shifted from Cagayan to more south into Isabela-Aurora.
Risk is getting higher for folks in entire luzon area

Also the size of this storm is quite huge and is still expanding, so the effects of this storm might be felt down to Southern Luzon.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1117 (NESAT)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 25 September 2011
<Analyses at 25/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°50'(14.8°)
E130°40'(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more

[euro6208]

very high intensity forecast

[dexterlabio]

From JMA

[ManilaTC]

Looks like JTWC will upgrade this storm into a Typhoon on the next advisory.
Taken off the RAMMB site

201109250000 14.7 130.6 65

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 20W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.9N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.3N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.9N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.6N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.6N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.7N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.3N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 130.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SURGING
CONVECTION AND TIGHTER SYSTEM ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (HAITANG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN





WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SURGING
CONVECTION AND TIGHTER SYSTEM ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TY 20W DOES NOT SHOW AN EYE YET, BUT A 242003Z SSMI IMAGE
SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE AND A 242353Z SSMIS SERIES SHOWS TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IN ALL QUADRANTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS EXPANDING AND SPREADING OUTWARDS FROM THE STORM. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES,
AND 55 KNOTS FROM RJTD. SATELLITE ANIMATION ALSO CONFIRMS THAT TY
20W IS TRACKING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA. THE 241200Z PGTW UPPER
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF THE LLCC
AND A DIFFLUENT ASYMPTOTE OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. TY 20W EXISTS
IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION WITH ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 30 DEGREES
AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY ALONG TRACK. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UNIMPEDED OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. A BROAD EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL IS VENTING ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 20W WILL SUSTAIN A TRACK ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PERIMETER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER
LUZON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 12,
ALLOWING MORE POLEWARD MOVEMENT. TY 20W IS ENTERING THE FERTILE
GROUNDS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND SHOWING SIGNS OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THE STORM HAS ATTAINED EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
THAT WILL ALLOW UNIMPEDED DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LAND INTERACTION
PROVIDES A WEAKENING EFFECT. THE INTENSITY RAMP-UP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS A LITTLE MORE THAN ONE DVORAK VALUE PER DAY, WHICH IS NOT
AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION. TY 20W WILL
ENCOUNTER EVEN WARMER SEA WATER OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON
WHILE REMAINING IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND NEAR TAU 42, IT WILL
PEAK AT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
ENTRY POINT WILL BE BETWEEN AUBAREDE POINT AND CASIGURAN. ONCE
INLAND, TOPOGRAPHY WILL FORCE THE TRACK A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD AND
DRIVE THE STORM ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRES.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS COME A LITTLE SOUTH REGARDING BOTH ENTRY AND
EXIT POINTS, BUT SUCH UNCERTAINTY IS TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TIME
TO LANDFALL SHORTENS. EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX WILL RESULT IN BETTER
FOCUS ON THE TRACK FORECAST. DESPITE THE SLIDE TO THE SOUTH,
HOWEVER, TIME OVER LAND STILL WORKS OUT TO ROUGHLY 15 HOURS.
ACCORDING TO STATISTICAL ANALOGUES, A 15 HOUR OVER-LAND TRACK
RESULTS IN A FORTY PER CENT REDUCTION IN STORM INTENSITY, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN TY NESAT EJECTING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AT
80 KNOTS. ONCE IN THE SCS, TY 20W WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS BUT IN A
HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AND THUS UNDERGO ONLY MODERATE RE-
INTENSIFICATION.
C. THE EXTENDED RANGE TRACK POINTS THE STORM CLOSE TOWARDS HONG
KONG, BUT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN, GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THE
MOST RECENT TRACK POINTS TO LANDFALL BETWEEN HONG KONG AND HAINAN,
WITH THE STORM STILL AT TYPHOON STRENGTH. WHILE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS STILL NOT KEEPING UP WITH THE STORM'S ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT, TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO.
THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS, WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON OBSERVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FACTORED WITH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
SCENARIO, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A SYSTEM OF THIS TYPE, TRACK, AND
SEASON.//
NNNN

[Cranica]

16ft waves in a minimal hurricane? Is that normal?

[euro6208]

the 10th typhoon of the 2011 typhoon season is here...

[phwxenthusiast]

Maybe it's just me, but i think upgrading this into a typhoon is a bit premature...

[cycloneye]

the 10th typhoon of the 2011 typhoon season is here...

Well,not yet officially as JMA still has not upgraded.

[euro6208]

the 10th typhoon of the 2011 typhoon season is here...

Well,not yet officially as JMA still has not upgraded.

TXPQ22 KNES 242113
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NESAT)

B. 24/2032Z

C. 14.9N

D. 131.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...NESAT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE DUE EAST NEAR 15N...IN FACT
CENTER ESTIMATE MAY BE A BIT SLOW. CENTRAL CDO HAS CONTINUED TO BLOSSOM
WITH WELL DEFINED COLD BAND TO THE WEST THAT ALL IN ALL TOTALS 10/10THS
BANDING AND WITH ALL OF IT BEING WHITE OR COLDER (ACTUALL NEARLY ALL CDG)
DT IS 4.0. MET IS 3.5. PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.3mb/ 72.2kt


I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1727Z 14.9N 131.9E AMSU


...GALLINA


is it a typhoon based on dvorak estimates of 1 minute winds...jma uses 10 minute..




nesat is moving very fast, i think the philippines might encounter a weaker system. if it starts moving slowly, then a monster definitely but still nesat has alot of time over water...

[cycloneye]

JTWC is not the official agency in that part of the world,that title belongs to JMA and that is why the Storm2k policy is always to wait for the official agency to do an upgrade and then it becomes official.

[euro6208]

very deep convection...

[dexterlabio]

Hmm this one's acting like Songda, I don't know if it's the shear but there are times that it doesn't look as good as it did a while ago. I'll give this some more hours to see if this is really going to get its act together.