ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Scorpion]

This may well be the real deal. It will be interesting to see if the GFS follows the Euro trend west.

[SFLcane]

If it developes fairly quickly as most models suggest i'd lean towards a quick recurve. Looks like a signifcant hurricane in the making.

[jinftl]

Agree...it took Irene almost 2400 miles....to 60W before she got her act together...by then she was too far west to fade away without making a splash. The further east we can get these systems going, the more likely they are going to be influenced by upper-level steering troughs, and the more likely they are fish!

If it developes fairly quickly as most models suggest i'd lean towards a quick recurve. Looks like a signifcant hurricane in the making.

[expat2carib]

After it withstands the poof test as our respected board member gustywind would say It looks like a player. It has my full attention.

It looks more 9.+ than 10+ I hope they manage to coordinate the coordinates

[cycloneye]

Agree...it took Irene almost 2400 miles....to 60W before she got her act together...by then she was too far west to fade away without making a splash. The further east we can get these systems going, the more likely they are going to be influenced by upper-level steering troughs, and the more likely they are fish!

If it developes fairly quickly as most models suggest i'd lean towards a quick recurve. Looks like a signifcant hurricane in the making.

But several hurricanes developed well east of 50W among them Hugo and Georges to name two.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The ridge to its north should be a lot weaker than the ridge north of Irene, as is already quite evident by the lack of any significant SAL:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg

I think it will most likely track north of the Caribbean, though I won't rule out any impact at this time. Good chance it would recurve east of the U.S., but I'm wary of the Euro, which did such a good job with Irene 10 days out, taking this storm toward the eastern Bahamas in 10 days.

Indeed, there have be years when New England has had twins (1869 & 1954 spring to mind). I certainly hope this one stays away from the NE though. After Irene, and all her media hype, I need a rest (as I'm sure many do).

[Javlin]

With a possible WSW movement in the future we have some serious ridging taking place out in the MDR region which seems to back up the positive NAO report.Thus we still have to see if this movement plays out and if it does are the reports on the ridging in the W Atl. going to bear things out?And then the Death Ridge over TX moving W?Plenty of time to watch for sure.....

[jinftl]

No doubt, there are notable exceptions...but if a system develops near the cape verde, it is much more likely to never impact any land at hurricane intensity. From a blog post by Dr. Jeff Masters earlier this month, the graphic below shows a system developing near where 92L is has a 20%-30% chance of ever impacting land as a hurricane, compared to 50% up to 70% chance if it develops just east of the Islands.

"Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts."

Agree...it took Irene almost 2400 miles....to 60W before she got her act together...by then she was too far west to fade away without making a splash. The further east we can get these systems going, the more likely they are going to be influenced by upper-level steering troughs, and the more likely they are fish!

If it developes fairly quickly as most models suggest i'd lean towards a quick recurve. Looks like a signifcant hurricane in the making.

But several hurricanes developed well east of 50W among them Hugo and Georges to name two.

[HurricaneWarning92]

looking forward to the 12z Euro... will it still show a westward trend or does it show a more pronounced recurvature solution?... we shall see.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS developes 2 capeverde cyclones and continues to recurve 92L north of the islands.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F28%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[cycloneye]

Closer to Bermuda on this 12z run.

[NDG]

Even the GFS keeps trending westward, yesterday it was showing recurve well east of Bermuda by several hundred miles.

[BigA]

It looks like there is a small circulation at 10.5 with a broader.turning two degrees south..Which one dominates could have. important implications.

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF ensembles 240 hours, slower than the ECMWF operational and much weaker:

[Gustywind]

After it withstands the poof test as our respected board member gustywind would say It looks like a player. It has my full attention.

It looks more 9.+ than 10+ I hope they manage to coordinate the coordinates

thanks my friend i appreciate your humor ! Merci for the congrats but i'm not so strong as a member called Superman by a board member . More seriously, we should have to watch it as its races west and the more west goes at low latitude... you have understand better than me what troubles could eventually happen for the islands... even if we're far away from any threat for the moment. Something to monitor during for the next couple of days. Let's wait and see!

[cycloneye]

It looks like there is a small circulation at 10.5 with a broader.turning two degrees south..Which one dominates could have. important implications.

I would add "huge" implications for the NE Caribbean when a final latitude is established.

[southerngale]

gatorcane: Please upload the image, then post it. It's not showing up.

[gatorcane]

gatorcane: Please upload the image, then post it. It's not showing up.

I used image shack for this, but if you press CTRL-C to soon to copy the direct link, it won't copy it...I fixed it.

Here is the 00Z UKMET, 120 hours:

[gatorcane]

The GOES floater on NHC site "East Atlantic" is flashing it looks like, making it difficult to find the center.

Anybody have any good visible loop links for this system?

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation