ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[gatorcane]

i trust none of them...

Certainly Jesse, this year has been not normal the performance so far. Let's see when the real peak of the season comes after mid August and see if things change. (Except the Euro with Don that was very good)

The ECMWF did well with Emily also. When the invest that spawned Emily was between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, it consistently showed it traversing the Northern Caribbean towards Eastern Cuba and Hispaniola where it disintegrated her, never really deepening it.

Out of all of the models, the ECMWF is the one I would pick if forced to pick. It's not doing much with this wave.

[gatorcane]

Latest EAST Atlantic IR image:

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has 25-35 kt 850mb winds across the tropical Atlantic near Africa now. The strong wing burst tracks westward with 92L. Lack of low-level convergence should not allow for development over the next 3-4 days. It needs to slow down first.

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS has 25-35 kt 850mb winds across the tropical Atlantic near Africa now. The strong wing burst tracks westward with 92L. Lack of low-level convergence should not allow for development over the next 3-4 days. It needs to slow down first.

What is your development chances for 92L? Enough weakness to recurve 92L before the islands if it develops?

[Fyzn94]

NHC isn't showing this on their Tropical Cyclone Activity Map. I'd expect to at least see a yellow circle indicating it.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has 25-35 kt 850mb winds across the tropical Atlantic near Africa now. The strong wing burst tracks westward with 92L. Lack of low-level convergence should not allow for development over the next 3-4 days. It needs to slow down first.

What is your development chances for 92L? Enough weakness to recurve 92L before the islands if it develops?

I'm not thinking that it has much chance of developing until west of 50W. That farther west development would decrease chances of recurve and out to sea. Hard to say what it's chances are 4-5 days from now. Not too good the next 2-3 days at least.

[Hylian Auree]

The reason the NHC isn't giving this any chances of development yet is because development isn't likely until after 48 hours. Too much dry air, and everything else noted by wxman57

[lebron23]

Nothing on TWO

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EAST ATLC FROM 19N19W
TO 11N22W...MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

[AHS2011]

I'm not liking this year so far. It looks worse than 2010 did at the beginning. Does anyone know why NOAA raised their Hurricane Season numbers? Sorry to be slightly off topic.

[HurricaneFan]

Isn't the wave behind 92L getting very close to 92L?

[gatorcane]

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Model support is on the weak side for this system.

I agree with WxMan57. If it develops we are talking 3 to 4 days at least, if at all.

The ECMWF does not develop it at all. Seems reasonable to me as there is a lot if sinking air and dry air over the MDR.

Probably going to need to wait a bit more for Atlantic development. Aug. 17th keeps coming to mind as far as a when we will have a system that has a good chance of development with good model support.

[cycloneye]

Aug. 17th keeps coming to mind....

Interesting that I posted at the Global Models Discussion thread the factor that will ignite the peak of the season after mid August.

[LaBreeze]

Heading due west for now, I suspect it'll probably try to lfit up somewhat once it tries to develop but its when that occurs that will be key, if it takes long enough a track like Emily seems reasonable, maybe a little east...

that is what happened in 05.....the TW's didnt develope until past 50W due to a lower pressures in the carib and favorable conditions aloft.......I wouldnt discount a Katrina nor Rita type track as we go into August....

As far as the death ridge here in TX....cant foressee that far in the future with certainty that it will hold 2 weeks from now....

I just don't see a Katrina or Rita type of track with this hold that the High pressure has on us. It will be our saving grace from hurricanes and storms, but certainly not from the drought and heat!

[wxman57]

I just don't see a Katrina or Rita type of track with this hold that the High pressure has on us. It will be our saving grace from hurricanes and storms, but certainly not from the drought and heat!

Yep, I agree. If it reaches the NW Caribbean then a west track toward Mexico or perhaps the lower TX coast would be possible, but that ridge should hold firm over SE TX/LA/MS.

[Rgv20]

ASCAT did a pass at 2z08-08-2011 and the center of 92L looks a bit elongated around 8N-9N 27W-26W.

[Kohlecane]

Link for GFS loops/models

[ROCK]

I just don't see a Katrina or Rita type of track with this hold that the High pressure has on us. It will be our saving grace from hurricanes and storms, but certainly not from the drought and heat!

Yep, I agree. If it reaches the NW Caribbean then a west track toward Mexico or perhaps the lower TX coast would be possible, but that ridge should hold firm over SE TX/LA/MS.

for 2 weeks this ridge is going to hold firm? we shall see....I have doubts...

[ROCK]

18z NOGAPS- approaching the islands at 180hr

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

0Z GFS- ridge placement - curious vortex showing up at the 500mb level...and 850mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180l.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_180l.gif