ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Its tough one, these systems tend to be missed by the models or underplayed historically, I suspect we'll see some sort of development as it scoots off to the NE eventually.

Enough about it to suggest it needs watching.

[Aric Dunn]

now east of melbourne and becoming better organized.

[jinftl]

Do you think they will send recon to investigate this today or is that i jumping the gun?

now east of melbourne and becoming better organized.

[Aric Dunn]

Do you think they will send recon to investigate this today or is that i jumping the gun?

now east of melbourne and becoming better organized.

well if the trend continues... then this afternoon when recon is supposed to go then I think they there will be a sufficient data to to send recon. the surface obs are now indicating a developing surface circ, so over the next few hours will see if the convection can maintain

[jinftl]

Crownweather discussion from late yesterday...be interesting to see if this thinking continues today

Currently, environmental conditions are marginal at best for development with wind shear values running between 20 and 30 knots over Invest 98-L. Satellite imagery today reveals that this system, while it is currently embedded in a frontal system, seems to be removing itself from the frontal system and is drifting to the south. If this trend continues (and it is expected to) it will track into much more favorable environmental conditions and would have a much greater chance of developing into a tropical depression or a tropical storm as we get into Monday and Tuesday. None of the model guidance members are forecasting tropical cyclone development, however, given that Invest 98-L will be tracking into favorable environmental conditions, it will need to be monitored very closely.
http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6536

[Aric Dunn]

Crownweather discussion from late yesterday...be interesting to see if this thinking continues today

Currently, environmental conditions are marginal at best for development with wind shear values running between 20 and 30 knots over Invest 98-L. Satellite imagery today reveals that this system, while it is currently embedded in a frontal system, seems to be removing itself from the frontal system and is drifting to the south. If this trend continues (and it is expected to) it will track into much more favorable environmental conditions and would have a much greater chance of developing into a tropical depression or a tropical storm as we get into Monday and Tuesday. None of the model guidance members are forecasting tropical cyclone development, however, given that Invest 98-L will be tracking into favorable environmental conditions, it will need to be monitored very closely.
http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6536

yeah problem with models is that it is quite small and the global models dont have the resolution for that. however the hurricane models GFDL and HWRF both develop it into a TS

[jinftl]

Excerpt from latest NWS Miami Discussion:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
302 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY FROM THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...

THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL STILL KEEP
VERY HIGH PWATS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH IN
SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY.

THE HURRICANE CENTER IS ALSO GIVING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, PLEASE PREFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE PRODUCTS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE CWA TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...AND ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND.

[northjaxpro]

NHC yesterday scheduled Air Force Recon aircraft to fly in this afternoon to investigate 98L. They should arrive by 18Z today.

98L has definitely improved in its structure overnight and it has a fair chance right now to become a TD or minimal TS. It Will be interesting to see what Recon will find when they investigate the system later today.

[jinftl]

Latest satellite shows convection trying to form around possible center?



Link to satellite loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.html

[Aric Dunn]

From the 805 am discussion from NHC

"THE LOW WILL MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK IN
A GENERAL W DIRECTION MON THROUGH TUE POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WED. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A
DISSIPATING WARM FRONT."


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

rough center estimate .... 27.9N 78.1W

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

[jinftl]

[GCANE]

Some small overshooting tops, heavy rain rate, and CAPE has been running 3500 to 4000 overnight.

All pointing to UL conditions slowly improving.

Surface pressure still high though.

This could start to drop later in the day if convection persists.

Based on 96L, this area could quickly develop an anti-cyclone.

[Kingarabian]

Is this a possible threat to the Carolina's or will it shoot off to the NE?

[GCANE]

Large hot-tower now firing. Chances looking a lot better now for development.

[Aric Dunn]

Large hot-tower now firing. Chances looking a lot better now for development.

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/nexsat/thumbs/region_size/CONUS/focus_regions/NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/precip/geo_blended/20110717.1132.goes13.rain.nexsat_CONUS_SouthEast.0.jpg[/ig]

ITs quickly organizing and surface obs indicate a better low level wind field. also signs of some small but distinct banding features starting to develop.

[jinftl]

any observations that would indicate pressure is falling any?

Large hot-tower now firing. Chances looking a lot better now for development.

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/nexsat/thumbs/region_size/CONUS/focus_regions/NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/precip/geo_blended/20110717.1132.goes13.rain.nexsat_CONUS_SouthEast.0.jpg[/ig]

ITs quickly organizing and surface obs indicate a better low level wind field. also signs of some small but distinct banding features starting to develop.

[Vortex]

Coming together nicely this morning....Could ramp up to at least a TS pretty quickly...UL conditions improving. Waiting on more vis shots.....Keep an eye FL...

[Aric Dunn]

any observations that would indicate pressure is falling any?

Large hot-tower now firing. Chances looking a lot better now for development.

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/nexsat/thumbs/region_size/CONUS/focus_regions/NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/precip/geo_blended/20110717.1132.goes13.rain.nexsat_CONUS_SouthEast.0.jpg[/ig]

ITs quickly organizing and surface obs indicate a better low level wind field. also signs of some small but distinct banding features starting to develop.

holding steady at the moment, but until at well defind LLC is established we wont see much pressure falls. but its well ont its way. I would say by the time recon gets there later we should have well defined LLC