WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[supercane]

589
WTPQ20 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 18.5N 156.2E POOR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 20.2N 151.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Windysocks, tropical cyclones can move to the SW in the Northern Hemisphere under amplifying ridges (i.e., Hurricane Katrina over S Florida, Hurricane Ike) or in binary interactions (i.e., Fujiwhara effect), which would be the cause for this system.

Latest Dvorak classification from JTWC down to 2.0/30kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 120021
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (W OF WAKE ISLAND)
B. 11/2332Z
C. 18.7N
D. 155.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF 0.35 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES, WHILE MET IS 2.5. FT
BASED ON DT AND PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/2014Z 18.6N 155.9E SSMS
HOUGH

[theavocado]

Ma On Shan is a ridgeline away from me too. I'm wondering if I live in the same village as Typhoon Hunter....

I don't think I've ever seen a typhoon turn SW before. Is that unusual?

It just happened last year with STY Megi. In that case Megi gained latitude, but the break in the ridge wasn't weak enough for it to pass through, and then it started moving SW under the Asiatic ridge to the west.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[StormingB81]

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 155.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.2N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.9N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.4N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.2N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.2N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.0N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 154.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

I cant get the photo up...

[Infdidoll]

Right on the verge of a TS...Looks to me like CDO pattern forming.

Friend of mine ready to place bets with me saying this is going to hit Luzon/Taiwan before it comes anywhere near Japan. So how good are my odds if I put money down on this? (haha) Kidding, not putting money anywhere where a Fujiwhara effect has the slightest possibility of occurring.

[cycloneye]

I cant get the photo up...

Here it is the 300z track.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Right on the verge of a TS...Looks to me like CDO pattern forming.

Friend of mine ready to place bets with me saying this is going to hit Luzon/Taiwan before it comes anywhere near Japan. So how good are my odds if I put money down on this? (haha) Kidding, not putting money anywhere where a Fujiwhara effect has the slightest possibility of occurring.

I think you'd be on to a losing bet going for Luzon. Models are in pretty good agreement right now about some sort of NW turn after the track to WSW. What is also becoming established is they really are keen on blowing this up into a very strong system near the Ryukus.

ECMWF 12z has a very strong system moving ashore on Kyushu (near my favourite volcano Sakurajima!)
CMC bombs it out SE of Ryukus and shows the abrupt poleward turn shown in ECMWF run
GFS has the abrupt turn too and a strong system 960hPa or lower.
NOGAPS is slower with intensification but shows WNW then NW track towards Ryukus and S Japan.
UKMET 12z shows similar track to Nogaps but is far more bullish on intensity.

Pretty good model agreement in the long term which if verified could see my 7th trip to Japan in 7 months!!

[Infdidoll]

Right on the verge of a TS...Looks to me like CDO pattern forming.

Friend of mine ready to place bets with me saying this is going to hit Luzon/Taiwan before it comes anywhere near Japan. So how good are my odds if I put money down on this? (haha) Kidding, not putting money anywhere where a Fujiwhara effect has the slightest possibility of occurring.

I think you'd be on to a losing bet going for Luzon. Models are in pretty good agreement right now about some sort of NW turn after the track to WSW. What is also becoming established is they really are keen on blowing this up into a very strong system near the Ryukus.

ECMWF 12z has a very strong system moving ashore on Kyushu (near my favourite volcano Sakurajima!)
CMC bombs it out SE of Ryukus and shows the abrupt poleward turn shown in ECMWF run
GFS has the abrupt turn too and a strong system 960hPa or lower.
NOGAPS is slower with intensification but shows WNW then NW track towards Ryukus and S Japan.
UKMET 12z shows similar track to Nogaps but is far more bullish on intensity.

Pretty good model agreement in the long term which if verified could see my 7th trip to Japan in 7 months!!

Great! Maybe I really WILL put money down on this because this guy is REALLY starting to get a little belligerent. Acquaintance of my husband's who said I need to stop listening to the Kadena weather page and that I have no idea what I'm talking about (which is going to lead to quite a lengthy citation of agencies this info is gleaned from). I am citing him all the data that shows this one may actually be a threat. I know Fujiwhara can throw off a track...but all the way to Luzon? Please. Now I've just got to lock him in on that opinion about it hitting Luzon/Taiwan again...

[StormingB81]

Infdiddoll...we know how most of these people are here in Okinawa..and Songda changes nobody's mind! A typhoon does not come here it always turns...I am afriad to say this but if it becomes near a cat 5 and hits a little lower and hits us dead on I am afriad how many people WILL NOT be prepared....Its kinda scary!

[dexterlabio]

How many people live in Okinawa, by the way? Is your island's area not that small? You might just see that your island just fits into the storm's eye. This system is depicted to get bigger and the eye could expand enough to fit in your area. Still if you survived Songda, I believe you can withstand this storm. Just take necessary precautions. *well this is just so 5-7 days away, probably you will be prepared enough by then*

[euro6208]

I am surprised 08w isn't upgraded to a tropical storm. with all available data, i believe this is already a 45-50 knot tropical storm ma-on.

12/0232 UTC 18.7N 154.5E T2.5/2.5 08W -- West Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 996.5mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.7 2.7

and should intensify faster during the next 96 hours.

latest forecast from euro shows a very powerful typhoon and a strong typhoon landfall in mainland japan due to favorable wind shear and warm sst. i wouldn't be shocked to see this become our 2nd category 5 of the year. where ever this storm hits or affect land, let's hope for the best

[StormingB81]

Okinawa is 67 Miles long and varies from 2 miles to like 17 miles wide..According to sources and I know this was of great debate..Okinawa saw some wind gusts of 125 mph during Songda.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Infdiddoll...we know how most of these people are here in Okinawa..and Songda changes nobody's mind! A typhoon does not come here it always turns...I am afriad to say this but if it becomes near a cat 5 and hits a little lower and hits us dead on I am afriad how many people WILL NOT be prepared....Its kinda scary!

Do you mean folks in US military or the locals? Most locals in Taiwan and Japan carry on as normally until all hell breaks loose! You should see the number of scooters driving on the roads in Taiwan during a typhoon - makes for interesting footage!

Population of Okinawa is about 1.4 million, some good info on Wiki - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okinawa_Prefecture

[StormingB81]

Yes, Sorry should have been more specific...Military members thinks all typhoons turn away and always miss here which has been the case mostly the last couple of years expect for Songda..and Yes Here to in Japan when Songda came through people driving on the road I was shocked..

[rdhdstpchld]

I already have neighbors doing the "meh...it won't hit us" -- and these are ppl who were here for Songda...I don't care who you are, Songda was freaky...I think partly b/c there was virtually no rain...so it was hauntingly windy. And some of the huge banyan type trees that went down...wow. I'm watching and just picked up some great ratcheting straps for the lawn furniture. Love the cement walls, ratchet down the wicker stuff to them, and good to go. My grill is another story...but it's up against the house in a corner - protected on 3 sides...Infidoll, I'm with you. Better to be chicken little than the wicked witch of the East...ruby slippers and all...

[Infdidoll]

Infdiddoll...we know how most of these people are here in Okinawa..and Songda changes nobody's mind! A typhoon does not come here it always turns...I am afriad to say this but if it becomes near a cat 5 and hits a little lower and hits us dead on I am afriad how many people WILL NOT be prepared....Its kinda scary!

You know, it's only half the military folks or former military that have retired and now live on the island or civilian contractors. The longer they've been on-island, the worse. They have this "invincible" atttitude and if you mention a storm coming they start name-calling, insulting your intelligence, etc. while talking about how it's no big deal. Well, it IS a big deal. We're not talking about the end of the world, but we're talking it's kind of nice to know a week in advance that a storm is coming so you can secure your house, vehicles, double check your travel plans, not rush the stores all at once, etc. It's not a time to bash people that are scared because you have "been through worse". I don't blame those who are scared. I fully admit I was my first experience with a typhoon. I was much calmer with Songda, but at her peak, you bet I had sweaty palms! Guilty secret is that I kind of love the adrenaline, but only after the experience.

I live off base - I notice all the Okinawans take storms seriously, but they DO wait until the last minute to pull things inside. The Okinawans will be outside in 50kt winds pulling things in the house. They just don't have the Western OVER-caution that we're taught about their own mortality. (You have to admit - kids in safety seats until they're 100 lbs? Seriously? While there are no car seat rules in Okinawa for children). However, they would be VERY distraught if their own stupidity caused the death or injury to a neighbor because they didn't take a storm seriously. Local mentality almost seems to be - Secure your house, then go play in it! At the same time, you have the tough, veteran (not military veteran, but as in one who has been there, done that) with no responsibility whatsoever who is more concerned with calling other people idiots than securing their crap. The Americans who pooh-poohed the storm will be huddled inside watching their stuff go flying because they are too afraid to go outside. It's frustrating, really.

After Songda, I heard a few people regretting they didn't take it seriously. I have a neighbor who regrets the person who had their satellite dish above his car didn't remove it. Their satellite dish went through the sunroof of his car.

[Infdidoll]

I already have neighbors doing the "meh...it won't hit us" -- and these are ppl who were here for Songda...I don't care who you are, Songda was freaky...I think partly b/c there was virtually no rain...so it was hauntingly windy. And some of the huge banyan type trees that went down...wow. I'm watching and just picked up some great ratcheting straps for the lawn furniture. Love the cement walls, ratchet down the wicker stuff to them, and good to go. My grill is another story...but it's up against the house in a corner - protected on 3 sides...Infidoll, I'm with you. Better to be chicken little than the wicked witch of the East...ruby slippers and all...

LOL - I know, call me Chicken Little. Everyone didn't take it seriously with Songda and we were all caught off guard. Even the locals around me, whom I've seen securing for much smaller storms. I don't know Japanese and don't have a Japanese satellite dish, so I don't know what their news reports were showing, but I'm guessing they were taken by surprise as much as we were. Early season storm - nobody wanted to take it seriously. This one, people will probably be in disbelief about - "No way we'd get hit twice like that..."

[StormingB81]

Some of the models now have it turning missing the Islands and going to Southern Japan...I am guessing from what people said it all depends how much interaction and if 92w develops..am I correct or??

[Typhoon Hunter]

Some of the models now have it turning missing the Islands and going to Southern Japan...I am guessing from what people said it all depends how much interaction and if 92w develops..am I correct or??

There are more factors involved than just interaction with 92W such as position of the STR, timing and strength of any troughs coming off China which could affect the STR etc. Models swing around, that's the nature of them - I'm sure over the next 5 days we'll see more runs plastering you on Okinawa and many totally missing. You'll start to have a more reliable idea of its impact on you about 36hrs from CPA (closest point of approach) so a long way to go. As I said before in another thread you're a small target in a big ocean.