ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Anyone know the Jamaican radar site? I googled it but the website I found isn't displaying anything.

The radar is not working, I already was trying to find it

[cycloneye]

Anyone know the Jamaican radar site? I googled it but the website I found isn't displaying anything.

But at least,you can see something from this Cuban radar.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TheBurn]

0115Z

[Florida1118]

Thats looking pretty good...

[NDG]

I have seen TSs look worst than the Satellite presentation that 94L has right now.
If convection and organization continue during the night & tomorrow morning, good bet that the Recon will find at least a TD strength.

[cycloneye]

Will the plane find a TC when it goes tommorow afternoon? I say,if the trend that is going thru tonight continues,then is yes.

[Dean4Storms]

Some models take it N to NE and some W to NW.

I think those models that develop it quickly are mostly the NE tracks. Don't see that happening.

[Ptarmigan]

These broad systems tend to be a bit of a pain for the models, esp when you have such a broad gyre present.

just a wait and see job now!

Larger systems take longer to develop than smaller systems. Case in point, Hurricane Wilma took time to get organized. Hurricane Humberto in 2007 was small and intensified quickly. I think 94L will develop by early next week.

[NDG]

Great outflow setting up in the upper levels, but however, as I look in the mid levels is getting a bit of light to moderate westerly mid level shear, thus why we are seeing the convection bands push to the east of the estimated low pressure center through out the day.
Interesting that buoy 42058 is now reporting W wind, but I think it has to do with a rain band rotating around as the temp went down to 78 degs from 81 degs as soon as the wind shifted.
Latest NAM show that the mid level winds should diminish a bit and turn more from the east starting in about 24 hrs or so.

[Macrocane]

Yep, monsoon gyres/troughs take longer to develop, sometimes they may look well organized but they're too broad to be considered tropical cyclones, remember Nicole last year? it was very hard to find a LLC there were several small circulations rotating around a bigger one and I think that even the NHC doubts it was a tropical storm. Anyway I think that we may see a TD by Sunday if the trend continues.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[JonathanBelles]

Code: Select all

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

94L will be flushing out its middle levels and continue to organize, but as of this moment much of the western side is quite dry: http://wp.me/p1xnuB-1y

[HURAKAN]

Most systems early in the season are loop-sided, so 94L is pretty typical

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/2345 UTC 16.3N 77.9W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic

[wxman57]

The more I look at it this evening, the more I think it may well develop over the weekend. I would feel comfortable going 50-60% chance of development now. Don't see any threat (or rain benefit) to the northern Gulf. All indications are that if it does deepen it would be steered northward toward eastern Cuba and the eastern Bahamas.

[MGC]

Slowly organizing this evening....I'd say a 50/50 chance of a depression by Sunday evening. Unless this death ridge breaks down the NGOM is safe.....MGC

[srainhoutx]

00Z GFS suggests a broad circulation and appears to have a good initiation. With 24 hours, 850 vort chart suggests a couple of vortices within the circulation and remaining broad.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: Yep, monsoon gyres/troughs take longer to develop, sometimes they may look well organized but they're too broad to be considered tropical cyclones, remember Nicole last year? it was very hard to find a LLC there were several small circulations rotating around a bigger one and I think that even the NHC doubts it was a tropical storm. Anyway I think that we may see a TD by Sunday if the trend continues.

I remember Nicole from last year. It was one messy storm. A lot of storms that form from monsoonal gyres and troughs are messy looking on satellite. They look like what you see in the West Pacific and Indian Ocean.

[Evil Jeremy]

I know there are recon flights tasked, but are they for tomorrow or Sunday?