EPAC: HILARY - Remnants

[Hylian Auree]

You forgot SHIPS and LGEM, two of the NHC's favorites.

[HurricaneRobert]

I was thinking some kind of remnants will make it over to Texas, but yeah those terrains are not to be underestimated.

It could happen:

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Putting out a rapid intensification outlook for Hillary:

Rapid Intensification is defined as an increase of wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period.

The data I use, CIMSS, is only updated through 0245 UTC (it is currently 1200 UTC), but looking at yesterday's images and todays (through 0245 UTC) plus IR, I believe Hillary has an 80% chance of rapidly intensifying within the next 24 to 30 hours (the early stages very well may have already began, or is beginning right now). IR has been showing signs of an eyelike feature trying to form, and my hook has been present since yesterday afternoon (it appeared around 1900 UTC, or 3 pm EDT). From 5 pm to 11 pm yesterday, winds increased 5 knots. Between 11 pm and 5 am, the winds increased 15 knots (per NHC advisories, times in EDT).

Since first appearing, the hook has been gradually becoming better defined...and coupled with IR images, I predict RI will start this morning or very early afternoon (assuming it has not started already), and continue through tonight. The only big downside is proximity to land, which may prevent the eyewall from closing off entirely. Either way, I believe the 30 knot minimum criteria will be met before or by tomorrow at noon eastern. My best guess, in this case, is 100 knots by 12 pm EDT tomorrow.

Unfortunately, I did not have time to edit my post this morning (busy, busy day)...I wanted to say I felt there was the possibly of Hilary reaching 115 to 120 knots by 12 pm EDT tomorrow, but the reasons behind me sticking with 100 knots were:

1. Proximity to land possibly interfering with the inner core (I had another system earlier in the year not intensify as quick or as strong as I thought due to this).

2. The convection off to the west possibly interfering with the system.

Going off of those, I decided the best placement would be 100 knots, though I felt it was possibly too low. I would like to bump up the intensity, I am going with 115 to 120 knots by 12 pm EDT tomorrow (this could happen overnight, then level off at about 115 to 120 knots tomorrow morning).

[Kingarabian]

In a serious flirt with the Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Major Hurricane

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
500 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

...AND YET ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 100.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF
HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
100.3 WEST. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HILARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HILARY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

HILARY IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Fyzn94]

Look at that eye!!!

[CrazyC83]

If Recon went in there I think a stronger storm would be found. Any chance Recon could fly there?

[lilybeth]

That photo is incredible! Category 3 today already. That eye looks so close to Mexico, looks like Hilary is just skating along the edge of the coast. I hope everyone is safe and listens to any precautions and advisories given.

[Hurricane Jed]

WOW! Talk about some serious RI!

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like a Cat 5. Reminds me of Jimena and Rick.

[RL3AO]

Very cold ring of cloud tops.



To be honest, 130kts seems reasonable.

[CrazyC83]

It seems the models want to take this inland too now...Mexico look out! I'd put it at 120 kt, with a high degree of uncertainty (pressure 955mb).

[bexar]

from 65 KTs to 115 KTs in 12 hours

impressive, though Hilary is small.

that brings to 4 Cat 4s in EPac this year so far.

not surprised if she could even pull at Cat 5

This year, EPac sure is showing Atlantic how it's done.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

HILARY IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE. IT HAS DEVELOPED A
DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. IN FACT...LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD
BE EVEN STRONGER. SINCE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...HILARY
COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HAVING
SAID THAT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

HILARY HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE
SMALL HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL/HWRF FAMILY TURNS
HILARY NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE SEA OF CORTES IN THE
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE
HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 16.0N 100.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 16.4N 102.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 16.7N 104.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 17.0N 105.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.0N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Could make a run at Cat 5 overnight at this rate.

[Hurricane Jed]

If it became a Cat 5 and made landfall at that intensity it would be only the second such storm to do so.

[Macrocane]

Beautiful cyclone, and look at that cloud tops, wish we could have some visibles too, the good thing with Hilary is its small size so the strongest winds are not reaching the coast of Mexico, the rains and swells could be a problem though. It's impressive when you compare the numbers of the ATL and EPAC basins 15/3/2 versus 8/7/4, the EPAC has had half the number of tropical storms but the double of hurricanes and major hurricanes.

[brunota2003]

Well, I did decent on guessing when she was going to RI...but I missed the intensity (too low) on my original guess by at least 15 knots thus far.

[SouthDadeFish]

To be honest she looks like a cat 5 to me:



What a beautiful storm with that pinhole eye.

[Ptarmigan]

Texas sure could use a re curve, but this would devastate Mexico...

This will never make it to Texas even if it does recurve, the high terrain of Mexico will completely dissipate it, not a drop of moisture would make it to Texas. Please correct me if I am wrong!

I was thinking some kind of remnants will make it over to Texas, but yeah those terrains are not to be underestimated.

East Pacific hurricanes that recurve and go over Texas can lead to floods. The October 1994 Flood was partially from Hurricane Rosa.

Hurricane Rosa
Wikipedia-Hurricane Rosa

List of Texas hurricanes (1980–present)
[url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Texas_hurricanes_(1980–present)]Wikipedia-List of Texas hurricanes[/url]