ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The 00z Surface analysis by TAFB. Look at the extreme right part of image,where you can see where it may be in 24 hours and the pressure dropping.



Saved image by ImageShack.us

[HurricaneWarning92]

There is no floater up for either system (99L & 98L)...

[StarmanHDB]

There is no floater up for either system (99L & 98L)...

Floater is up for 99L

[Extratropical94]

Woohoo, code red at 2AM:

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[abajan]

Woohoo, code red at 2AM:

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

That's a big surprise to me and I bet an even bigger surprise to wxman57!

[ConvergenceZone]

hehe, So WXMAN says this has a "slim to none" chance of developing the next few days, and the NHC says, it has 60% change of developing...Who will win?? hehe....I guess we'll find out over the next couple of days.....

[Skeetergirl]

My bet might just be on WXMAN! LOL

[cycloneye]

98L has a floater.

[Gustywind]

Here is a loop showing 98L far east of the Atlantic ocean...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR
12N37W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 33W-40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Gustywind]

000
AGXX40 KNHC 190731
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.


CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE ENHANCES CONVECTION ACROSS ISLANDS FROM HISPANIOLA
EASTWARD AS SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY.
WEAKENING LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB E OF AREA NEAR 17N47W MOVE
CLOSER TO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE MON....BUT LIKELY BECOME
DIFFUSE BEFORE IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ZONE. SECOND
LOW PRES CENTER...1008 MB AT 12N37W AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS...A MORE LIKELY CANDIDATE TO
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE WED WITH WINDS
INCREASING RAPIDLY TO ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 12
FT. MODEL GUIDANCE MOVE IT CLOSE TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN ZONE LATE
FRI.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES

[Gustywind]

From SSD...

19/0545 UTC 11.3N 37.0W TOO WEAK 98L -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 98L In The Central Atlantic:
I’m keeping a close eye on an intensifying low pressure system that is currently located around 1425 miles east of the Windward Islands. Satellite loops indicate that this system, designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center, has become better organized overnight and it appears that 98L may become a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next day or two. Most of the global model guidance do develop 98L into a tropical storm over the next few days, however, the GFS and European models forecast that this system will weaken into a tropical wave as it tracks across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean from Friday into Saturday.

Analyzing the environment around Invest 98L this morning, conditions are favorable for development and I do think we will see this develop into a tropical depression either later today or on Tuesday and then a tropical storm by about Wednesday. After that, it appears that the ridge of high pressure to the north of this system will strengthen causing 98L to accelerate in forward speed and the entire system outrunning itself and decoupling; causing it to weaken into a tropical wave as it gets into the eastern Caribbean late this week.

For those of you in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago, please be aware that tropical storm conditions are a possibility starting Thursday night and continuing through all day Friday before slowly diminishing on Saturday.

[Gustywind]

Looks like to my untrained eyes that 98 L could be worrying . First all it appears to move slowly (compared to previous twave racing at 20 kts) and so the time to build and strengthen, second , 99 L above could protect it from the windshears?!... Let's wait and see.







Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meso]

From the looks of the GFS and the EURO conditions are decent in the near future but look to be hostile as the system heads into the Caribbean. Both models develop it into a TD or weak TS and then weaken it and dissipate it once it heads into the Caribbean. I'd imagine possible shear?

[cycloneye]

Latest OSCAT pass made a few hours ago.

[Hylian Auree]

Oh wow, such an improvement in the circulation from yesterday. I still think this'll take its time actually becoming a TC -- so by 48 rather than earlier.

[rainstorm]

From the looks of the GFS and the EURO conditions are decent in the near future but look to be hostile as the system heads into the Caribbean. Both models develop it into a TD or weak TS and then weaken it and dissipate it once it heads into the Caribbean. I'd imagine possible shear?

the euro and gfs indicate it will create its own shear by moving too fast.

[Hylian Auree]

On the first few vis frames, I can see two separate circulations within the larger one. Need a few more frames to pinpoint any circulation center, but my guess is around 11.5N and 39.3W, with another possible eddy near 10N 37W (very rough estimate).

[wxman57]

Still looks like it has a long way to go before it develops. Conditions in its path aren't that great. Stacey Stewart does tend to be very generous with his development percentage estimates.