ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

[Caribwxgirl]

The latest. Code Red at 2 PM?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/425.JPG

Sure looks like it could be.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The latest. Code Red at 2 PM?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/425.JPG

Sure looks like it could be.

True, it is looking good.

[WYNweather]

The latest. Code Red at 2 PM?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/425.JPG

Sure looks like it could be.

True, it is looking good.

What is keeping the SE section from developing?

[Florida1118]

Please remove the img tags when quoteing, we dont need to see the same image 3 times in a row And Im thinking red also by 8pm

[cycloneye]

60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

NRL:

20110824.1715.90LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-129N-260W

[wxman57]

Given the current pattern does that mean we need to be looking at more 'home grown' threats? The long Cape Verde trackers by and large look to be re-curvers this year right or is that something that can change before the "Cape Verde 'season' "is over?

Yes, I think so, for the next few weeks. There's a weakness in the high across the eastern Atlantic now. As a result, the SAL has declined markedly out there. We could see 2-3 storms develop way out east in the next few weeks, but they would likely track out to sea. But we could also see development in the Gulf or along the southeast U.S. coast in the next few weeks. We'll have to get some sort of disturbance in the Gulf first, though.

[painkillerr]

Still moving westward...

[Caribwxgirl]

[quote="cycloneye"

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/5507/atl2.gif[/img

Yep you called it right! now where will it go is the question.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Please remove the img tags when quoting, we dont need to see the same image 3 times in a row And Im thinking red also by 8pm

Yes, please do. I have better things to do than to keep removing [img] tags all on quoted messages day long.

[FireRat]

Looks like a fish so far. Anyways worth watching in the coming week IMO.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 90, 2011082418, , BEST, 0, 129N, 272W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

Given the current pattern does that mean we need to be looking at more 'home grown' threats? The long Cape Verde trackers by and large look to be re-curvers this year right or is that something that can change before the "Cape Verde 'season' "is over?

Yes, I think so, for the next few weeks. There's a weakness in the high across the eastern Atlantic now. As a result, the SAL has declined markedly out there. We could see 2-3 storms develop way out east in the next few weeks, but they would likely track out to sea. But we could also see development in the Gulf or along the southeast U.S. coast in the next few weeks. We'll have to get some sort of disturbance in the Gulf first, though.

Also,a wave can move from Africa without developing until 50W.

[SunnyFla]

Also,a wave can move from Africa without developing until 50W.

If the storm does not develop until 50W or further west does it stand a better chance against recurving out to sea?

[cycloneye]

Also,a wave can move from Africa without developing until 50W.

If the storm does not develop until 50W or further west does it stand a better chance against recurving out to sea?

50W longitud and west of that longitude is almost a guarantee of a landfall in the Caribbean depending on how the ridges and troughs behave.

[SunnyFla]

Also,a wave can move from Africa without developing until 50W.

If the storm does not develop until 50W or further west does it stand a better chance against recurving out to sea?

50W longitud and west of that longitude is almost a guarantee of a landfall in the Caribbean depending on how the ridges and troughs behave.

Thank you!

Glad to see you back after Irene passed through. Hope there was not too much damage in Puerto Rico.

[JtSmarts]

Hoping for a strong Recurve spinner to take the ACE up.

[HurricaneFan]

Given the current pattern does that mean we need to be looking at more 'home grown' threats? The long Cape Verde trackers by and large look to be re-curvers this year right or is that something that can change before the "Cape Verde 'season' "is over?

Yes, I think so, for the next few weeks. There's a weakness in the high across the eastern Atlantic now. As a result, the SAL has declined markedly out there. We could see 2-3 storms develop way out east in the next few weeks, but they would likely track out to sea. But we could also see development in the Gulf or along the southeast U.S. coast in the next few weeks. We'll have to get some sort of disturbance in the Gulf first, though.

Couldn't one long tracker slip through if there are many Cape Verde storms developing?
How far west do you think a storm would be able to reach with the ridge in that state?

[KWT]

Looking good, probably will develop fairly soon and once it does I'm pretty confident of a recurve with this one.

[cycloneye]

Hope there was not too much damage in Puerto Rico

Epic rainfall of a little over 20 inches,massive flooding,many mudslides,over 1 millon without power and water,one death with the Irene passage,over 500 millon in damage. See the photos at the thread at top of forum or at Caribbean - Central America Weather thread.