ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[SouthDadeFish]

New plan for recon:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 032045 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0445 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK............CHANGED:
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.

[cycloneye]

The first run for 94L by GFDL is only for 24 hours.Still waiting as I type for the graphics. Also,waiting for HWRF.

WHXX04 KWBC 032341
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.2 77.3 70./ 6.0
6 16.5 77.6 320./ 4.5
12 16.9 77.7 336./ 4.1
18 17.1 78.7 283./ 9.1
24 17.6 79.1 319./ 6.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 24 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the squadron is going to get busy with this system as the TCPOD has been updated with a mission for Saturday afternoon.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0445 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK............CHANGED:
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.




[cycloneye]

HWRF text of it's first run for 94L. It moves it NE.

Code: Select all

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 3

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 16.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -76.40 LAT: 16.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -76.70 LAT: 17.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -76.50 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 17.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 17.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -75.70 LAT: 17.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -76.00 LAT: 17.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -76.00 LAT: 18.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -75.60 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -75.30 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -74.60 LAT: 18.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -74.30 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -73.90 LAT: 19.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -73.50 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -72.80 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -70.20 LAT: 21.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -68.80 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -66.90 LAT: 24.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -65.50 LAT: 25.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


18z HWRF Animation

[SouthDadeFish]

8pm discussion is interesting:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTERED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
JAMAICA. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
EVIDENCE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER
THE LOW...GENERALLY PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN
INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HEAVY RAINS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN AND COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...A
SPECIAL FEATURE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE
TWD. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO FRESH NE WIND
FLOW...BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND HIGH PRES TO THE N...WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE
A NLY FLOW PREVAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS SAT. SEE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING
WATERS... INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.

[SouthDadeFish]

Lol HWRF says 995mb in 12 hours... right.

[Hurricane]

I'm curious why you are saying N to NNE movement. The early models and NHC/HPC are showing movement to the west or west-north west. Steering currents also show W movement is likely.

You didn't read my statement closely enough. I agree with the NHC that it's not likely to develop. Because of this, we're forecasting a W-WNW movement for now - because it is NOT forecast to develop. As I said, if it DOES develop then mid to upper-level SW flow should steer it northward, not to the west, as evident by the BAMM/BAMD. NHC isn't forecasting such movement to the N-NNE because they're not forecasting it to develop (only 20% chance).

They aren't expecting it to develop in the next 48 hours. All major hurricanes start at code yellow.

[MGC]

Looks to me the only thing holding 94L back is the dry air......MGC

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 94, 2011060400, , BEST, 0, 163N, 778W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Intensity up a bit in this run.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 040017
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0017 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110604 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110604  0000   110604  1200   110605  0000   110605  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  77.8W   16.8N  78.2W   16.9N  79.0W   17.0N  80.3W
BAMD    16.3N  77.8W   17.1N  77.7W   17.4N  77.9W   17.6N  78.4W
BAMM    16.3N  77.8W   16.8N  78.0W   16.9N  78.5W   16.9N  79.5W
LBAR    16.3N  77.8W   16.9N  77.8W   17.9N  77.7W   19.0N  77.2W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          36KTS          39KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          36KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110606  0000   110607  0000   110608  0000   110609  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  81.1W   16.5N  82.1W   16.4N  82.9W   16.6N  84.0W
BAMD    17.8N  79.0W   18.8N  79.9W   20.9N  77.8W   23.3N  73.1W
BAMM    17.0N  80.4W   17.2N  81.5W   17.6N  81.9W   18.6N  82.5W
LBAR    20.2N  75.9W   22.1N  70.5W   26.4N  60.9W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        43KTS          52KTS          47KTS          37KTS
DSHP        43KTS          52KTS          47KTS          37KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.3N LONCUR =  77.8W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   0KT
LATM12 =  16.0N LONM12 =  77.7W DIRM12 =  50DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  15.5N LONM24 =  79.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[x-y-no]

Yeah, toss this HWRF run right in the trash can. 995mb and 54 knots in 12 hours? 981 mb in 72 hours? It must have initialized a much more organized system than we really have.

[HURAKAN]

Usually the first runs are garbage

[SouthDadeFish]

Winds are up 5, and what does the S mean at the end? It went from M to S.

[cycloneye]

Winds are up 5, and what does the S mean at the end? It went from M to S.

Shallow.

[cycloneye]

First T numbers are given for 94L.25kts.

03/2345 UTC 16.3N 77.9W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

The 00z tracks.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

Here is the 00z TVCN track that NHC runs unofficially.

Code: Select all

AL, 94, 2011060400, 03, TVCN,   0, 163N,  778W,   0,    0,   ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2011060400, 03, TVCN,  12, 169N,  777W,   0,    0,   ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2011060400, 03, TVCN,  24, 172N,  769W,   0,    0,   ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2011060400, 03, TVCN,  36, 176N,  773W,   0,    0,   ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2011060400, 03, TVCN,  48, 177N,  777W,   0,    0,   ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2011060400, 03, TVCN,  60, 176N,  776W,   0,    0,   ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2011060400, 03, TVCN,  72, 178N,  770W,   0,    0,   ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2011060400, 03, TVCN,  84, 183N,  763W,   0,    0,   ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2011060400, 03, TVCN,  96, 193N,  752W,   0,    0,   ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,

[HURAKAN]

looking good

[Hylian Auree]

Personally, I don't think the dry air will hinder the development too much later on.
On another note, it is really coming along nicely. The upgrade to 30% was very adequate considering the greatly improved organization from yesterday

Off-topic: Seems this is already causing problems for the Caribbean
At least 20 homes flooded and one man killed following a landslide in the Dominican Republic.
[Source]

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone know the Jamaican radar site? I googled it but the website I found isn't displaying anything.