ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

chances of this ramping up fast into a td or ts? chances of a 35kts storm at most is?

[charlesw]

Base velocities on the storm show 50+ knts over a large area within the storms the the northeast of the center

[MrStormX]

The NHC would have to issue a special product if it was to be classified before landfall, and I don't see them doing that.

[Dean4Storms]

Think some folks from Daytona down to Cocoa Bch. are in for a bit of a surprise!

[hurricanefloyd5]

Base velocities on the storm show 50+ knts over a large area within the storms the the northeast of the center

is that wind shear or winds in the storm and will this become a ts?

[Dean4Storms]

It looks as good as ever this morning. If this was moving a good bit slower it might have had a shot at becoming Tropical. Will need to monitor once over in the Gulf!

Hey Dean...as badly as we need the rain up here in the Panhandle it doesn't look like this system will get close enough to give us any relief. The Tallahassee NWS didn't even make mention of it in their AFD...

They came around to my way of thinking.......

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

.UPDATE...WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS DOMINATED BY A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A SMALL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA WILL HAVE
AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE ON THE AREAS WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE VIGOROUS VORT MAX...WHICH ORIGINATED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEVERAL DAYS AGO...IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE LIFT AND CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH A MODEST
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE...PWAT UP TO 1.5 INCHES THIS
MORNING...THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SCENARIO HANDLED WELL. ONLY
CHANGE TO POPS IS TO EXPAND 30 PERCENT OUT OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

[charlesw]

it is what the radar determines winds at that altitude is inside the storms (7-8 thousand ft)

[ronjon]

Base velocities on the storm show 50+ knts over a large area within the storms the the northeast of the center

is that wind shear or winds in the storm and will this become a ts?

Probably Thunderstorm gusts from convective activity. I still think its largely a mid-level feature but there is some evidence of it working its way down to the surface with a 1013 mb low now. We'll let you know if this was more bark than bite as it crosses north-central FL today. I did notice that SHPs and DSHPs bring it up to a 40 kt storm in 48 hrs so I think it has a chance for classification in the GOM. Of course, it's moving faster than wxman57's bicycling speed so that may inhibit its formation in the long run.

[wxman57]

Looks like an LLC on visible imagery near 30.1N/79.5W, displaced well NE of the convection. Note that pressures around the disturbance are quite high (1018-1019mb). Not much of a pressure gradient, winds only likely in the 15-20 kt range.

[Hylian Auree]

It's pretty much making landfall as we speak.

[otowntiger]

Cool! Bring on the much, much needed rain! I'm good with no wind but would love lots of gentle but soaking rain. Could this be what the Doctor ordered?

[wxman57]

It's pretty much making landfall as we speak.

Just the outer edge of squalls. The LLC is still about 80 miles offshore. Another 4 hours to reach the coast.

[otowntiger]

It's pretty much making landfall as we speak.

Huh??? Not if the 'center' of our system is as far out as wxman says.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Actually its not making landfall yet. That is just some of the convection well to the southwest of the circulation center.

[drezee]

43 mph wind gust at my weather station in Titusville in the squall that went through a little while ago...first TS gust of the season...too bad I am moving soon...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hopefully this brings enough moisture to tap down all those fires in the center of the state. We've been smelling them each day for the last week with the eastern flow over the state.
I suspect this will add a bit of moisture to the air too to allow for some more robust coverage of our afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms! yay! -we need the rain!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[setxwxgurl]

Any guess as to where this may be headed once it crosses florida

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1103 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FLZ040-011545-
MARION-
1103 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 1145 AM EDT...

AT 1103 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES
SOUTH OF FORT MCCOY TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF WEIRSDALE...MOVING WEST AT
25 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WEIRSDALE...OCKLAWAHA...MOSS BLUFF...LYNNE...FORT MCCOY...SILVER
SPRINGS SHORES...LAKE WEIR...BURBANK...SUMMERFIELD AND BELLEVIEW
THROUGH 1145 AM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2896 8231 2901 8240 2901 8242 2903 8245
2922 8243 2922 8241 2937 8241 2939 8189
2896 8187 2895 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1503Z 085DEG 21KT 2933 8198 2883 8198

$$

STRUBLE

[wxman57]

Any guess as to where this may be headed once it crosses florida

Steering flow is almost due east to west across the northern Gulf at 25-30 kts. That would take it about 100-150 miles south of the northern Gulf Coast and inland into the upper Texas coast in 48 hrs.