WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like they got it moving more west than previously thought, the sub-tropical ridge looks like it will remain in place there. I think that makes more sense though to be honest. Unless the trough south of Japan dips south this newest track makes sense. Just my thoughts though..

I believe it is online with the Euro model correct?

[StormingB81]

Rob I believe so..it has it moving neat PI before turning..and the NOAA has it going the same route before turning north sooner..should be an interesting week

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[climateconcern23]

The td still far yet expect for some or slight change on its track.

[Chacor]

Cycloneye, the JMA is carrying this as a TD, and officially this is a TD. Please change the topic title to reflect this.

[Chacor]

JTWC discussion:
WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 200758Z
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, ENHANCED
OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FAVOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, FUELED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. AFTER TAU 48, THE STEERING STR WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY.
C. TS 04W WILL REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72. A SECONDARY STR
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN WILL ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, 04W
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING 90 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST.//

[GCANE]

Looks like conditions are great for development.

Narrow warm core at 1C.

PV still middle level though.

Moving into anti-cyclone, so should work down to surface.

Track forecast is over very warm water.

Already had a nice little RI, must have been a hot-tower firing off.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT:

[JTE50]

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 08.6N 139.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 09.9N 137.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[JTE50]

Moving up on Yap

[Iune]

Next name is Songda.

Track in 2004:

[Extratropical94]

Not a tropical storm yet

TD
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 20 May 2011

<Analyses at 20/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°35'(8.6°)
E139°25'(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 21/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°55'(9.9°)
E137°40'(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[cycloneye]

TPPN10 PGTW 201816

A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)

B. 20/1732Z

C. 9.1N

D. 139.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HATHAWAY

[ManilaTC]

FXXT03 EGRR 201800
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.05.2011

TROPICAL STORM 04W ANALYSED POSITION : 9.1N 140.7E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.05.2011 9.1N 140.7E WEAK
00UTC 21.05.2011 9.3N 140.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.05.2011 9.8N 138.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.05.2011 10.8N 135.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.05.2011 10.7N 134.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.05.2011 11.0N 132.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.05.2011 11.1N 131.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.05.2011 11.4N 129.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.05.2011 12.0N 128.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.05.2011 12.4N 127.0E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.05.2011 13.2N 125.9E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.05.2011 13.8N 124.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.05.2011 15.0N 123.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE


Last UKMET run shows its tracking towards Luzon... but where?

[wxman57]

Center is way on the NW side of the convection. Appears to be a very sheared TD right now.

[phwxenthusiast]

FXXT03 EGRR 201800

Last UKMET run shows its tracking towards Luzon... but where?

the UKMET, for a few runs now, have been showing that westward track, it's the outlier i believe... would be very scary if it were right...

[RobWESTPACWX]

One other simple thing I see what this system right now is it is still lingering pretty far south, that would be a shock if this drifts a few degrees farther south and looses its Coriolis all together. Then it would just dissipate.

[cycloneye]

57,JTWC confirms your center position semiexposed to the NW.

WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 9.2N 139.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 139.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 9.6N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 10.1N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.2N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.6N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.5N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.0N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 138.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. IR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-20
KNOTS. THE 20/12Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED ABOUT 95NM WEST FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION BASED ON A 201200Z METOPA IMAGE SHOWING A
DEFINED LLCC AS WELL AS THE 1223Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 25-30 KNOT ASCAT WINDS, BASED ON THE HIGHER
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS. TS 04W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 04W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WNW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH JGSM INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE
POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE UKMO INDICATING A WESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AND IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL OUTFLOW
AND THE VWS BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AFTER TAU 48 DUE
TO IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//

[StormingB81]

looks like it is on the same track as what the ecmwf is showing get cloer to PI then curve north we shall see the long way away for anything