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SIO: CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0140 UTC 19/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 129.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [258 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1200: 15.4S 128.1E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 997
+24: 20/0000: 15.5S 126.5E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 997
+36: 20/1200: 16.1S 124.5E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 21/0000: 16.8S 122.5E: 150 [280]: 035 [065]: 995
+60: 21/1200: 17.8S 120.1E: 200 [365]: 040 [075]: 993
+72: 22/0000: 18.6S 118.1E: 245 [455]: 050 [095]: 985
REMARKS:
The tropical low remains over land and has now started moving west but no longer
expected to move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. Position fair, based on radar
animation and surface observations.
Convective structure has retained organisation with curved bands evident on
radar near LLCC. Dvorak DT=3.0 based on CDO Pattern on Visible imagery of 2.5
plus a banding feature of 0.5. MET=2.5 with a D- trend; PT=3.0. FT=3.0. CI held
low at 2.5 due to location over land. Cloud pattern exhibits features of a
stronger system but surface winds remain below cyclone strength due to land
interaction.
System currently under low vertical wind shear due to an upper trough being in
the area and movement should continue to the west due to the presence of the
middle level ridge. The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a westward
movement during the next 24 hours before a slight turn to the southwest. This
should take the system into the Indian Ocean over Cape Leveque where it may
redevelop into a cyclone on Monday morning. If the ex-cyclone continues to track
westwards it may move over water and redevelop on Sunday night.
In the longer term, the system is expected to track southwestwards parallel to
the Pilbara coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Saturday 19 February 2011
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas
from Kalumburu to Bidyadanga, including Derby and Broome.
At 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was over land and
estimated to be 60 kilometres northeast of Wyndham and 220 kilometres east
southeast of Kalumburu and moving northwest at 13 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to turn west across the north Kimberley
region and reform into a cyclone off the West Kimberley coast early on Monday,
or on Sunday night, if it takes a more northwest track than expected.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, but may develop
between Kalumburu and Bidyadanga on Sunday night or Monday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible localised
flooding for parts of the Kimberley region in Western Australia.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kalumburu and Derby,
including Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, Koolan Island and Cockatoo Island should
commence taking precautions. For further information contact the WA State
Emergency Services [SES].
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 15.1 degrees South 128.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Saturday 19 February [9:30 pm WST
Saturday 19 February].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0803 UTC 19/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 128.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [305 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1800: 14.8S 127.1E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 999
+24: 20/0600: 15.2S 125.1E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 20/1800: 15.6S 123.4E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 999
+48: 21/0600: 16.4S 121.2E: 150 [280]: 040 [075]: 995
+60: 21/1800: 17.2S 119.5E: 200 [365]: 045 [085]: 991
+72: 22/0600: 18.2S 117.7E: 245 [455]: 050 [095]: 987
REMARKS:
The tropical low remains over land and maintained NW movement during the past 6
hours. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface observations.
Convective banding remains tightly curved but with limited deep cloud over the
LLCC. Dvorak DT=3.0 based on 0.4 wrap. MET=PAT=3.0; FT/CI=3.0. Cloud pattern
exhibits features of a stronger system but surface winds remain below cyclone
strength due to land interaction.
The deep circulation appears vertically stacked in an environment of low
vertical wind shear. Forecast movement is towards the west then WSW under the
influence of a strengthening middle-level ridge to the southeast. NWP forecast
tracks provide relatively high confidence in the consensus due to low spread.
The main point of uncertainty is in the timing of the turn to the west - this
affects the time that the tropical low moves offshore and its subsequent
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone. The current forecast indicates TC
development Monday morning northwest of Derby, however, if the low maintains its
current NW track for longer than forecast, TC development may occur earlier,
west of Kuri Bay on Sunday night. In the longer term, the system is expected to
track southwestwards parallel to the Pilbara coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0803 UTC 19/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 128.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [305 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1800: 14.8S 127.1E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 999
+24: 20/0600: 15.2S 125.1E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 20/1800: 15.6S 123.4E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 999
+48: 21/0600: 16.4S 121.2E: 150 [280]: 040 [075]: 995
+60: 21/1800: 17.2S 119.5E: 200 [365]: 045 [085]: 991
+72: 22/0600: 18.2S 117.7E: 245 [455]: 050 [095]: 987
REMARKS:
The tropical low remains over land and maintained NW movement during the past 6
hours. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface observations.
Convective banding remains tightly curved but with limited deep cloud over the
LLCC. Dvorak DT=3.0 based on 0.4 wrap. MET=PAT=3.0; FT/CI=3.0. Cloud pattern
exhibits features of a stronger system but surface winds remain below cyclone
strength due to land interaction.
The deep circulation appears vertically stacked in an environment of low
vertical wind shear. Forecast movement is towards the west then WSW under the
influence of a strengthening middle-level ridge to the southeast. NWP forecast
tracks provide relatively high confidence in the consensus due to low spread.
The main point of uncertainty is in the timing of the turn to the west - this
affects the time that the tropical low moves offshore and its subsequent
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone. The current forecast indicates TC
development Monday morning northwest of Derby, however, if the low maintains its
current NW track for longer than forecast, TC development may occur earlier,
west of Kuri Bay on Sunday night. In the longer term, the system is expected to
track southwestwards parallel to the Pilbara coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
130.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. THE REMNANTS OF TC 15S (CARLOS) ARE
POSITIONED TO MOVE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
DESPITE ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER LAND, THE DISTURBANCE IS FUELING
SHALLOW TO MEDIUM CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION IS LOOSELY WRAPPING
TOWARDS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE (SLP) HAS DROPPED NEARLY 3 MB IN WYNDHAM OVER THE PAST DAY
AS THE LLCC APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SLP IS CURRENTLY 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
130.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. THE REMNANTS OF TC 15S (CARLOS) ARE
POSITIONED TO MOVE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
DESPITE ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER LAND, THE DISTURBANCE IS FUELING
SHALLOW TO MEDIUM CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION IS LOOSELY WRAPPING
TOWARDS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE (SLP) HAS DROPPED NEARLY 3 MB IN WYNDHAM OVER THE PAST DAY
AS THE LLCC APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SLP IS CURRENTLY 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1957 UTC 19/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 127.3E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [247 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/0600: 15.8S 125.1E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 20/1800: 16.4S 123.4E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 997
+36: 21/0600: 17.0S 121.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 995
+48: 21/1800: 17.7S 119.4E: 150 [280]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 22/0600: 18.8S 117.5E: 200 [365]: 050 [095]: 985
+72: 22/1800: 20.3S 115.3E: 245 [455]: 055 [100]: 980
REMARKS:
The tropical low remains over land and has increased its speed slightly over the
last 6 hours, continuing in a west-southwest direction across the north
Kimberley region. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface
observations. Convective banding is less evident in recent IR imagery. Dvorak DT
2.0 is based on a curved band wrap of 0.2. MET and PAT=2.0 giving FT of 2.0.
Cloud pattern indicates good outflow in the northern semicircle, with large
areas of cold cloud in outer convective bands west of the centre.
The deep circulation appears vertically stacked in an environment of low
vertical wind shear. Forecast movement is towards the west then WSW under the
influence of a strengthening middle-level ridge to the southeast. NWP forecast
tracks provide relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low
spread. The current forecast indicates TC development during Monday morning
north of Derby. In the longer term, the system is expected to track
southwestwards parallel to the Pilbara coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1957 UTC 19/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 127.3E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [247 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/0600: 15.8S 125.1E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 20/1800: 16.4S 123.4E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 997
+36: 21/0600: 17.0S 121.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 995
+48: 21/1800: 17.7S 119.4E: 150 [280]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 22/0600: 18.8S 117.5E: 200 [365]: 050 [095]: 985
+72: 22/1800: 20.3S 115.3E: 245 [455]: 055 [100]: 980
REMARKS:
The tropical low remains over land and has increased its speed slightly over the
last 6 hours, continuing in a west-southwest direction across the north
Kimberley region. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface
observations. Convective banding is less evident in recent IR imagery. Dvorak DT
2.0 is based on a curved band wrap of 0.2. MET and PAT=2.0 giving FT of 2.0.
Cloud pattern indicates good outflow in the northern semicircle, with large
areas of cold cloud in outer convective bands west of the centre.
The deep circulation appears vertically stacked in an environment of low
vertical wind shear. Forecast movement is towards the west then WSW under the
influence of a strengthening middle-level ridge to the southeast. NWP forecast
tracks provide relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low
spread. The current forecast indicates TC development during Monday morning
north of Derby. In the longer term, the system is expected to track
southwestwards parallel to the Pilbara coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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AXAU02 APRF 201255
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1255 UTC 20/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 124.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [253 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0000: 16.9S 122.3E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 995
+24: 21/1200: 17.8S 120.0E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 990
+36: 22/0000: 18.8S 117.9E: 115 [215]: 050 [095]: 985
+48: 22/1200: 20.1S 115.9E: 140 [260]: 055 [100]: 980
+60: 23/0000: 21.2S 113.9E: 180 [335]: 065 [120]: 972
+72: 23/1200: 22.4S 111.9E: 220 [405]: 070 [130]: 967
REMARKS:
The tropical low continues to move in a west-southwest direction across the
north Kimberley region.
The circulation remains vertically stacked in an environment of low vertical
wind shear. The forecast track persists steadily to the west southwest under the
influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates
relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.
The current forecast indicates TC development during Monday as the system moves
off the west Kimberley coast then a gradual intensification off the Pilbara
coast. Despite high ocean heat content, moderate easterly shear may slow the
rate somewhat, although Category 3 intensity is possible by Wednesday morning,
by which stage the system will be in the Exmouth region. Should the system be
close to the coast at that stage, it may present a significant storm surge
threat. Since tides are close to HAT in this region during the next few days the
shelf wave is likely to cause tides to rise above the high water mark regardless
of whether the cyclone directly causes a storm surge on the coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1255 UTC 20/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 124.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [253 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0000: 16.9S 122.3E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 995
+24: 21/1200: 17.8S 120.0E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 990
+36: 22/0000: 18.8S 117.9E: 115 [215]: 050 [095]: 985
+48: 22/1200: 20.1S 115.9E: 140 [260]: 055 [100]: 980
+60: 23/0000: 21.2S 113.9E: 180 [335]: 065 [120]: 972
+72: 23/1200: 22.4S 111.9E: 220 [405]: 070 [130]: 967
REMARKS:
The tropical low continues to move in a west-southwest direction across the
north Kimberley region.
The circulation remains vertically stacked in an environment of low vertical
wind shear. The forecast track persists steadily to the west southwest under the
influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates
relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.
The current forecast indicates TC development during Monday as the system moves
off the west Kimberley coast then a gradual intensification off the Pilbara
coast. Despite high ocean heat content, moderate easterly shear may slow the
rate somewhat, although Category 3 intensity is possible by Wednesday morning,
by which stage the system will be in the Exmouth region. Should the system be
close to the coast at that stage, it may present a significant storm surge
threat. Since tides are close to HAT in this region during the next few days the
shelf wave is likely to cause tides to rise above the high water mark regardless
of whether the cyclone directly causes a storm surge on the coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS21 PGTW 201430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 125.3E TO 18.4S 118.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5S 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) ARE
LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
ESTIMATED TO BE OVER LAND BASED ON BROOME RADAR IMAGERY, BUT IT IS
POSITIONED TO MOVE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. A
LARGE AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE, BUT IS
SHEARING WESTWARD. CONSIDERING THE LLCC HAS MAINTAINED AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS OVER LAND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS,
ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY ABOVE 35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD POSSIBLY MODERATE THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION ONCE OVER WATER. THE CYCLONE WILL PARALLEL THE
COASTLINE TOWARDS LEARMONTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211430Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1312 UTC 20/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 124.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [253 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0000: 16.9S 122.3E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 995
+24: 21/1200: 17.8S 120.0E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 990
+36: 22/0000: 18.8S 117.9E: 115 [215]: 050 [095]: 985
+48: 22/1200: 20.1S 115.9E: 140 [260]: 055 [100]: 980
+60: 23/0000: 21.2S 113.9E: 180 [335]: 065 [120]: 972
+72: 23/1200: 22.4S 111.9E: 220 [405]: 070 [130]: 967
REMARKS:
The tropical low continues to move in a west-southwest direction across the
north Kimberley region.
Although shear has increased to over 20 knots the increase appears to be largely
in the higher levels and the circulation appears to still be vertically stacked
in the low levels. The forecast track persists steadily to the west southwest
under the influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance
indicates relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.
The current forecast indicates TC development during Monday as the system moves
off the west Kimberley coast then a gradual intensification off the Pilbara
coast. Despite high ocean heat content, moderate easterly shear may slow the
rate somewhat, although Category 3 intensity is possible by Wednesday morning,
by which stage the system will be in the Exmouth region. Should the system be
close to the coast at that stage, it may present a significant storm surge
threat. Since tides are close to HAT in this region during the next few days the
shelf wave is likely to cause tides to rise above the high water mark regardless
of whether the cyclone directly causes a storm surge on the coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Looks like it'll probably just get offshore, still some uncertanties about how far it gets offshore...
If it can get far enough offshore conditions look good for stronger development.
If it can get far enough offshore conditions look good for stronger development.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34
Issued at 0:01 am WST on Monday 21 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for Pilbara coastal areas from Mardie to Cape
Cuvier, extending to adjacent inland areas including Nanutarra and Minilya
Roadhouse.
The Cyclone WARNING for coastal communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque
has been cancelled.
At 11:00 pm WST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos, was relocated and estimated to be
over land
75 kilometres west of Derby
and 100 kilometres northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos has moved quickly across the Kimberley during the
last 12 hours and is expected to be over open waters just north of Broome
within a few hours. It is likely to slow down a little during Monday as it
tracks toward the west southwest and reforms into a tropical cyclone.
GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas
between Cape Leveque and De Grey on Monday morning especially if the system
develops faster than expected. GALES may then extend along the Pilbara coast to
Karratha on Monday night and then towards Exmouth by late Tuesday. There is the
risk of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 kilometres per hour on
Tuesday along the Pilbara coast.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible
localised flooding for parts of the Kimberley region, extending to Pilbara
coastal streams later on Monday and Tuesday. Refer to Flood Advices for the
Kimberley [IDW39610] and Pilbara [IDW39620].
Residents of Pilbara coastal towns are warned that tides may rise significantly
above the high water mark as the cyclone moves down the coast, even if it
doesn't cross the coast. DAMAGING WAVES and FLOODING of low lying coastal areas
are possible.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Cape Leveque and Port
Hedland, including Cape Leveque, Broome, Bidyadanga, Wallal and Port Hedland
should commence taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque, including
Kuri Bay, Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island and Derby are advised to proceed with
caution.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.3 degrees South 122.9 degrees East over land
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Monday 21 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Looks like they are quite keen on developing this system again then from the looks of things.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: SIO: ex-CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone
Yes the forecast is to reach a cat 2 from the current 25kts within 24hrs.
FKAU04 ADRM 201822
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20110220/1800Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: CARLOS
NR: 02
PSN: S1730 E12200
MOV: WSW 16KT
C: 995HPA
MAX WIND: 25KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 21/0000 S1754 E12054
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 21/0600 S1818 E11948
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 21/1200 S1848 E11842
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 21/1800 S1924 E11736
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20110221/0100Z
FKAU04 ADRM 201822
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20110220/1800Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: CARLOS
NR: 02
PSN: S1730 E12200
MOV: WSW 16KT
C: 995HPA
MAX WIND: 25KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 21/0000 S1754 E12054
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 21/0600 S1818 E11948
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 21/1200 S1848 E11842
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 21/1800 S1924 E11736
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20110221/0100Z
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35
Issued at 2:35 am WST on Monday 21 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for Pilbara coastal areas from Mardie to Cape
Cuvier, extending to adjacent inland areas including Nanutarra and Minilya
Roadhouse.
At 2:00 am WST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos, was estimated to be
55 kilometres north northwest of Broome
and 135 kilometres north of Bidyadanga and
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos has moved quickly across the Kimberley during the
last 12 hours and is now over open waters just north of Broome. It is likely to
slow down a little during Monday as it tracks toward the west southwest and
reforms into a tropical cyclone.
GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas
between Cape Leveque and De Grey during Monday morning especially if the system
develops faster than expected. GALES may then extend along the Pilbara coast to
Karratha on Monday night and then towards Exmouth by late Tuesday. There is the
risk of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 kilometres per hour on
Tuesday along the Pilbara coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding
165 kilometres per hour are possible west of Mardie later on Tuesday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible
localised flooding for parts of the Kimberley region, extending to Pilbara
coastal streams later on Monday and Tuesday. Refer to Flood Advices for the
Kimberley [IDW39610] and Pilbara [IDW39620].
Residents of Pilbara coastal towns are warned that tides may rise significantly
above the high water mark as the cyclone moves down the coast, even if it
doesn't cross the coast. DAMAGING WAVES and FLOODING of low lying coastal areas
are possible.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Cape Leveque and Port
Hedland, including Cape Leveque, Broome, Bidyadanga, Wallal and Port Hedland
should commence taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque, including
Kuri Bay, Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island and Derby are advised to proceed with
caution.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 122.0 degrees East over land
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Monday 21 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 2:35 am WST on Monday 21 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for Pilbara coastal areas from Mardie to Cape
Cuvier, extending to adjacent inland areas including Nanutarra and Minilya
Roadhouse.
At 2:00 am WST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos, was estimated to be
55 kilometres north northwest of Broome
and 135 kilometres north of Bidyadanga and
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos has moved quickly across the Kimberley during the
last 12 hours and is now over open waters just north of Broome. It is likely to
slow down a little during Monday as it tracks toward the west southwest and
reforms into a tropical cyclone.
GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas
between Cape Leveque and De Grey during Monday morning especially if the system
develops faster than expected. GALES may then extend along the Pilbara coast to
Karratha on Monday night and then towards Exmouth by late Tuesday. There is the
risk of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 kilometres per hour on
Tuesday along the Pilbara coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding
165 kilometres per hour are possible west of Mardie later on Tuesday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible
localised flooding for parts of the Kimberley region, extending to Pilbara
coastal streams later on Monday and Tuesday. Refer to Flood Advices for the
Kimberley [IDW39610] and Pilbara [IDW39620].
Residents of Pilbara coastal towns are warned that tides may rise significantly
above the high water mark as the cyclone moves down the coast, even if it
doesn't cross the coast. DAMAGING WAVES and FLOODING of low lying coastal areas
are possible.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Cape Leveque and Port
Hedland, including Cape Leveque, Broome, Bidyadanga, Wallal and Port Hedland
should commence taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque, including
Kuri Bay, Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island and Derby are advised to proceed with
caution.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 122.0 degrees East over land
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Monday 21 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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