WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.4S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.5S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.6S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.8S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.5S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.2S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 53.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST DAY AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING
DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BUT STILL WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55
KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS CAUSED AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE. TC 13S REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE MID-LATITUDE, UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD, A STEERING RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC BINGIZA WILL THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST FILLS AND WIND SHEAR
DECREASES. ADDITIONALLY, IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY
TAU 96, TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR AND
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN REGARDS TO
THIS STRENGTHENED STEERING RIDGE. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS
DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE HINDERING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z AND 120900Z.//
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Thanks, I had forgotten about mtotec!
