ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#501 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:23 pm

You can see the southwesterly shear starting to tear it apart this evening. It's history.

Rainband · #502 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:26 pm

need i say more :lol:

Rainband · #503 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:You can see the southwesterly shear starting to tear it apart this evening. It's history.

#504 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:29 pm

Bring on the rain for Florida. My grass is gray and feels like AstroTurf. Lake O has gotta get her drink on as well.

Plus I don't get the picture, rainband...what are you implying with that :eek:

SouthFLTropics · #505 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:37 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Bring on the rain for Florida. My grass is gray and feels like AstroTurf. Lake O has gotta get her drink on as well.

I spoke with Lake "O" earlier today and she said she'd love some rain water but if that isn't available she'll take one of Ivanhaters Vodka and Cranberries...LOL

Rainband · #506 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:45 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Bring on the rain for Florida. My grass is gray and feels like AstroTurf. Lake O has gotta get her drink on as well.

Plus I don't get the picture, rainband...what are you implying with that

stick a fork in it its done

#507 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:00 pm

Fork in it as a numbered/named tropical system? Sure.

But as a drought buster? No sir...we're definitely in business on that front.

I have a question...flash flooding is still a threat on parched ground, right? Even if the ground is dry it couldn't take several inches in an hour's time, right?

#508 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:08 pm

I'm at a total loss with NHC and 50%!

#509 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:39 pm

Down to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY
TOMORROW. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KIMBERLAIN

#510 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:40 pm

Me too....50%??? More like 9.9%.....MGC

#511 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:43 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I'm at a total loss with NHC and 50%!

Looks like Stacey got a bit excited about something earlier. Evening shift is gradually reducing the development potential. However, if the winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development by tomorrow, and there are only 4-5 hours left in "today", then how is the current chance of development 40% with a weak LLC (if that) and no convection? They probably wanted to go a lot lower but didn't want to drop it so fast.

#512 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 7:41 pm

AL, 94, 2011060700, , BEST, 0, 177N, 815W, 25, 1005, DB

pressure down to 1005 mb

Hylian Auree · #513 Postby **Hylian Auree** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 8:17 pm

Seems it's struggling a bit more before it enters its grave. Concentrated convection seems to be redeveloping in the northeastern quadrant closer to the center.

ronjon · #514 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:10 pm

S Florida residents rejoice - moisture return starting in next 60-72 hours.

boca · #515 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:33 pm

94L might be a goner but I hope its moisture makes it to South Florida. It looks like the moisture will get shunted just to our east.Depending on what that ULL does.

#516 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:45 pm

boca wrote:94L might be a goner but I hope its moisture makes it to South Florida. It looks like the moisture will get shunted just to our east.Depending on what that ULL does.

I am a little worried that most if the moisture will get sheared into the Bahamas and central/eastern Cuba instead. The NAM model though has been consistently bullish on South Florida rain chances. The true start to the rainy season may be a few days from now if this verifies.........

boca · #517 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:48 pm

How many times does the NAM model pan out?

#518 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:50 pm

The NAM progs are contingent upon there being a coherent 1006MB low about 50 miles south of KEY and moving due north, which is at odds with most of the reliable guidance. Its solution is very likely far too aggressive. While the best chance of rain over Florida will be over the keys and southern peninsula, I have some doubts as to just how far north the deep layer moisture will get. It all depends on the evolution of the GOMEX mid-upper low...if it takes the form of a positive tilt trough, then central/eastern Cuba and the Bahamas will get the lion's share of rainfall from this. Extreme south Florida and the Keys could get in on some good rains in this scenario as well.

On the other hand, a cutoff low or a more meridionally oriented H50 trough/H25 jet would send deep layer moisture and high rain chances farther north into Florida.

I'd say the NAM is about 24 hours too quick with the the moisture increase, and definitely too low with surface pressures north of west-central Cuba. I can't see any way the broad Caribbean gyre runs northward underneath a 60-70kt ST jetstreak and somehow manages to intensify.

If you're in Florida and rooting for rain, then root for the mid/upper flow to back as much as it can by the end of the week.

#519 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:50 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Fork in it as a numbered/named tropical system? Sure.

But as a drought buster? No sir...we're definitely in business on that front.

I have a question...flash flooding is still a threat on parched ground, right? Even if the ground is dry it couldn't take several inches in an hour's time, right?

You are correct. If the rain is heavy and the ground is dry and hard it will not absorb the rain as well as normal.

#520 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:53 pm

The lady is coming up to the mic:

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... r-florida/

ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

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