WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm (20W)

[euro6208]

ocean heat content is high until landfall so good for intensifying

[RL3AO]

Looks like one of those Pacific typhoons that could bomb out at any time. Raw T# going up quick.

[dexterlabio]

From JMA


TS 1117 (NESAT)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 24 September 2011

<Analyses at 24/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°00'(14.0°)
E136°25'(136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E133°20'(133.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10'(15.2°)
E129°10'(129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°25'(16.4°)
E125°05'(125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

Also in line with JTWC as well as the model runs from ECM and GFS. I guess a threat to Northern Luzon is imminent.

Clark, maybe it was '06 when Xangxane hit the Philippines on the 28th. Because that was the year when we were supposed to have our retreat but were later suspended because of the strong winds.

Well, more and more it makes me think that there is really something during the last week of September.

[dexterlabio]

I'm just concerned about the rains it could bring especially to us here in Manila. The circulation got a huge outflow especially to its southwest, if this will pass north of the capital then it could dump a lot of rain, considering that the SW monsoon is showing signs of being active which could worsen the situation.

[Typhoon10]

Latest run shows it cominng quite close to HK, but devastating strength when it hits Northern Philippines!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest TRMM side slice on this, really organized.

[dexterlabio]

NRL now shows 40 knots.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.8N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.3N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.4N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.0N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.4N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.2N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 135.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, MICRONESIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND
250300Z.//
NNNN

landfall intensity: 130 knots category 4 strength 1 minute...


TXPQ22 KNES 240314
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NESAT)

B. 24/0232Z

C. 14.5N

D. 135.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...BANDING MEASURES 6/10 FOR A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES WHILE
MET IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/0048Z 14.2N 136.3E AMSU


...TURK

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 999.7mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.4

[phwxenthusiast]

dang, is that the CoC??

[euro6208]

that looks like an eye! or is it? we'll see

crazy we have powerful hilary in the east pacific headed out to sea while we are expecting a typhoon with similiar intensity but headed for land!

[euro6208]

certainly going to be the strongest landfall in the world if the path and intensity verifies...

[dexterlabio]

certainly going to be the strongest landfall in the world if the path and intensity verifies...

Hopefully NOT, Philippines is not the country to carry on such instance. As far as I know, that record belongs to Hurricane Camille in the 60's, isn't it?

[euro6208]

certainly going to be the strongest landfall in the world if the path and intensity verifies...

Hopefully NOT, Philippines is not the country to carry on such instance. As far as I know, that record belongs to Hurricane Camille in the 60's, isn't it?

i mean this year lol. as for strongest landfall, no not camille. Super Typhoon Megi from last year- the record holder with her 885 mb landfall in luzon. This is the storm where recon found sustained winds of 170 to 175 knots 1 minute winds! storms can reach 200 mph sustained as shown by megi thank you recon...

[FireRat]

Jeez guys, if this thing blows up as the models show and hits the Philippines on the 27th, it's going to be devastating. Hope this doesn't pan out for those of you in the Philippines, keep an eye on this one!

[RobWESTPACWX]

I do certainly hope I'm saying Nesat right. But today's video, really stressed the potential of this storm being a serious situation.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIxeLAQ2f8I[/youtube]

[phwxenthusiast]

certainly going to be the strongest landfall in the world if the path and intensity verifies...

Hopefully NOT, Philippines is not the country to carry on such instance. As far as I know, that record belongs to Hurricane Camille in the 60's, isn't it?

i mean this year lol. as for strongest landfall, no not camille. Super Typhoon Megi from last year- the record holder with her 885 mb landfall in luzon. This is the storm where recon found sustained winds of 170 to 175 knots 1 minute winds! storms can reach 200 mph sustained as shown by megi thank you recon...

JTWC's highest winds on Megi was around 155G190K... Camille was special because we had obs during landfall and they actually recorded the 1-min sustained of around 175kts... PAGASA didn't have reporting stations in Divilacan (closes was in Baler, i believe)...

i wish we have archives of the Recon Missions on Megi..

[StormingB81]

Some models showing it may head north and miss PI..lets hope that is that case..however the other bad news it has it headed towards Tawain!

[RobWESTPACWX]

I like Taiwans new layout for there typhoon page. Its animated and stuff.

They still are keeping the storm over Luzon, just barely though.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/index.htm

[phwxenthusiast]

cool, thanks for the heads up--indeed a nice improvement there!!
yeah JMA, also keeping this offshore and tracking along the Luzon Strait instead.. going to be interesting to watch for sure..

right now though, i would side with the GFS/Euro combo and not the CMC..

[P.K.]

JTWC's highest winds on Megi was around 155G190K... Camille was special because we had obs during landfall and they actually recorded the 1-min sustained of around 175kts... PAGASA didn't have reporting stations in Divilacan (closes was in Baler, i believe)...

i wish we have archives of the Recon Missions on Megi..

For some reason of which I have no idea the JTWC downgraded Megi in their post season BT. They didn't warn high enough in the first place either. As far as I am concerned though recon did show 150kt winds just you won't ever see the JMA warning that high! Remember Tip was only 140kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1117 NESAT (1117)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 14.8N 135.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 70NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 16.1N 131.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 260600UTC 16.7N 128.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 270600UTC 17.8N 124.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =