EPAC: HILARY - Remnants

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/east_pacific.html

Vertical instability in the EPAC is also below normal.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

...HILARY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 99.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST. HILARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CORE OF HILARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HILARY COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75
MILES...120 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[bg1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/east_pacific.html

Vertical instability in the EPAC is also below normal.

Edit: Never mind, I figured the charts out.

Shear will be less than 10 knots in the environment it will be moving into:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/gwxyrshr.png

[Kingarabian]

Eye is becoming more defined. But I don't know what that huge blob to the west of the storm is.

[Extratropical94]

EP, 09, 2011092218, , BEST, 0, 154N, 994W, 90, 973, HU,
90 knots - Cat. 2

[Cyclenall]

Checked the NRL for the first time today and was floored. This Hilary is definitely not 90 knots, it's 115 knots at least and could be as high as 130 knots currently!! I would consider this explosive intensification at the rate it's cleaning its eye out. The thick reds on AVN are almost wrapped around and the symmetry of the cyclone is near perfect. I think this tropical cyclone has the best chance at becoming a category 5 hurricane this year in the Epac, it's moving into extremely favorable territory (Tiny too, good combo). Percentage wise for CAT5 strength, I'd say 50% at this point.

Is everyone sleeping? No one is posting and visiting, Hilary is not far away from Mexico and any wobble to the North could be pretty dangerous. Recon should also go into it but based on past history, that is unlikely or maybe it will be a TD by the time it gets in there.

Eye is becoming more defined. But I don't know what that huge blob to the west of the storm is.

I don't think I have seen anything like that either before. It's larger than Hilary itself. Is it connected to it or just outflow thunderstorms?

[Kingarabian]

Checked the NRL for the first time today and was floored. This Hilary is definitely not 90 knots, it's 115 knots at least and could be as high as 130 knots currently!! I would consider this explosive intensification at the rate it's cleaning its eye out. The thick reds on AVN are almost wrapped around and the symmetry of the cyclone is near perfect. I think this tropical cyclone has the best chance at becoming a category 5 hurricane this year in the Epac, it's moving into extremely favorable territory (Tiny too, good combo). Percentage wise for CAT5 strength, I'd say 50% at this point.

Is everyone sleeping? No one is posting and visiting, Hilary is not far away from Mexico and any wobble to the North could be pretty dangerous. Recon should also go into it but based on past history, that is unlikely or maybe it will be a TD by the time it gets in there.

Eye is becoming more defined. But I don't know what that huge blob to the west of the storm is.

I don't think I have seen anything like that either before. It's larger than Hilary itself. Is it connected to it or just outflow thunderstorms?

Whoa Whoa...easy easy, allow me to disagree. She sure looks better and her eye is clearing out but 85kt-90kts is just about right for now...Maybe 100kts... Outflow from the north and northeast is not that well established for it to be a high end major hurricane (probably due to the interaction with land), though I could be wrong. I think if that huge tumor to the west of it joined forces with her it would make her look pretty nice . She is a small storm, pinhole eye, and in the warmest waters of the EPAC so she should be able to make a run @ Cat.5.

[tobol.7uno]

Models showing a possible curve back toward land late in the period...

[tobol.7uno]

Keeping her quite intense too...

[tobol.7uno]

I think we have a major hurricane, perfect structure, little visible shear over the center...

[Kingarabian]

Texas sure could use a re curve, but this would devastate Mexico...

[tobol.7uno]

Texas sure could use a re curve, but this would devastate Mexico...

This will never make it to Texas even if it does recurve, the high terrain of Mexico will completely dissipate it, not a drop of moisture would make it to Texas. Please correct me if I am wrong!

[Cyclenall]

Whoa Whoa...easy easy, allow me to disagree. She sure looks better and her eye is clearing out but 85kt-90kts is just about right for now...Maybe 100kts... Outflow from the north and northeast is not that well established for it to be a high end major hurricane (probably due to the interaction with land), though I could be wrong. I think if that huge tumor to the west of it joined forces with her it would make her look pretty nice . She is a small storm, pinhole eye, and in the warmest waters of the EPAC so she should be able to make a run @ Cat.5.

I see you edited your post to put in maybe 100 knots, I was just thinking if the NHC goes with anything less than 100 knots I will fall off my chair in disbelief. I have never seen a TC look that good that was under 100 knots. Your not that far away from being in disagreement, gradually coming on board . I don't think it would look pretty if it were to somehow join with that blob but it won't . BTW, that's not a pinhole eye.

Texas sure could use a re curve, but this would devastate Mexico...

This will never make it to Texas even if it does recurve, the high terrain of Mexico will completely dissipate it, not a drop of moisture would make it to Texas. Please correct me if I am wrong!

I was thinking the same but I thought maybe some of the moisture would reach the south part...maybe it's so tiny not even that would get there however.

[Kingarabian]

Texas sure could use a re curve, but this would devastate Mexico...

This will never make it to Texas even if it does recurve, the high terrain of Mexico will completely dissipate it, not a drop of moisture would make it to Texas. Please correct me if I am wrong!

I was thinking some kind of remnants will make it over to Texas, but yeah those terrains are not to be underestimated.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

...HILARY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 99.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST. HILARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CORE OF HILARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
HILARY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.

HILARY IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

NNNN

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

HILARY HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE EYE FIRST
APPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGES AROUND 1500 UTC...AND IT HAS MORE
DISTINCT SINCE THAT TIME. CLOUD TOPS ARE AS COLD AS -80C TO THE
NORTH OF THE EYE...AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
HAVE INCREASED AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 90 KT...AND
THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. HILARY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN FURTHER
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT REMAINS IN A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR COULD INCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS
AND IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HILARY HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER HILARY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS SHOWING A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP HILARY ON A MORE STRAIGHT WESTWARD PATH. OVERALL...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS.

AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1644 UTC INDICATE THAT THE WIND RADII REMAIN
QUITE SMALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.6N 99.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.1N 101.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.5N 102.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.8N 104.5W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 17.1N 106.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 109.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[lilybeth]

Cat 2 already. That sat. picture is amazing - the eye looks so well defined. And those models are a little scary with a few of them turning back over land, but it does seem like the majority have her heading out into sea.

Another question for all the experts on here - of all those models, are some of them considered more "accurate" than others by the WX community, or are they all pretty much even in that regards? Many thanks for any answers or discussion.

[MGC]

Looks a bit stronger than Cat-2 to me....Hilary has gone crazy this afternoon.....MGC

[FireRat]

Cool looking storm, let's hope it doesn't beat up Mexico 4-5 days down the road.

This is the main action across all of the world's oceans...after Roke leaving the picture and the struggling Ophelia. Cat 4 is pretty much attainable IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Cat 2 already. That sat. picture is amazing - the eye looks so well defined. And those models are a little scary with a few of them turning back over land, but it does seem like the majority have her heading out into sea.

Another question for all the experts on here - of all those models, are some of them considered more "accurate" than others by the WX community, or are they all pretty much even in that regards? Many thanks for any answers or discussion.

Here at Storm2k.org we rely mainly on the Euro or the GFS. The SHIPS, LGEM, CMC, and UKmet models are also reliable.

[lilybeth]

Here at Storm2k.org we rely mainly on the Euro or the GFS. The CMC and UKmet models are also reliable.

Thank you Kingarabian. I appreciate it.