ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF develops it but it vanishes after 120 hours.

[AJC3]

The 12z ECMWF develops it but it vanishes after 120 hours.

Luis. Actually what the ECM does is take 99L rapidly westward while weakening it to almost nothing near the GA in about 3-4 days. It takes 98L westward for about 5-6 days, then WNW and NW to near 20N 60W by day 8, and then opens it up and lifts the remnants out northward by days 9-10.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm not sure why, but I'm not really expecting much out of these two invests either.

[cycloneye]

It looks like finnally has started to move slowly westward after being stucked at the 35W longitude and it does not look too bad.

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z best track just a few minutes ago confirms it has finnally moved.

AL, 98, 2011091818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 364W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[wxman57]

Development chances look slim to none next few days.

[Ptarmigan]

Development chances look slim to none next few days.

The longer it takes to develop the more likely west it goes.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
1550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[StarmanHDB]

Development chances look slim to none next few days.

Hey wxman57!
I've been visiting Storm2k for the past few years and have learned to appreciate your (and a few others') thoughts and forecasts. That said, do you think the 2011 CV season is pretty much a done deal?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Down to 1008 mbs.

AL, 98, 2011091900, , BEST, 0, 119N, 371W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 190003
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0003 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110919  0000   110919  1200   110920  0000   110920  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.9N  37.1W   12.5N  38.5W   12.9N  40.2W   13.0N  42.6W
BAMD    11.9N  37.1W   12.3N  38.2W   12.8N  39.4W   13.2N  41.0W
BAMM    11.9N  37.1W   12.2N  38.3W   12.3N  39.5W   12.3N  41.3W
LBAR    11.9N  37.1W   12.3N  38.3W   13.3N  40.0W   14.5N  41.9W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          35KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          35KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110921  0000   110922  0000   110923  0000   110924  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.3N  45.3W   13.2N  52.1W   12.6N  59.5W   12.0N  66.6W
BAMD    13.7N  42.8W   14.6N  47.0W   15.5N  51.2W   16.7N  55.0W
BAMM    12.3N  43.2W   12.2N  48.0W   12.4N  53.3W   13.4N  57.9W
LBAR    15.8N  44.1W   18.7N  48.8W   21.7N  52.8W   24.2N  55.2W
SHIP        47KTS          50KTS          54KTS          56KTS
DSHP        47KTS          50KTS          54KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.9N LONCUR =  37.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  35.7W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  35.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Gustywind]

Loop

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N36W.
THIS LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00z Tropical Models.

SHIP Intensity is up

[Gustywind]

Don't like these paths around Dominica and ... south of Guadeloupe Let's wait and see for the next runs.

[Hylian Auree]

Kind of disappointed to see how little discussion is going on here.
I think this system will have a hard time developing into something proper, although the vorticity seems to be stacking nicely in the 700 and 850 mb levels. Conditions also appear favorable, with just a tad of shear possibly during the next day or so and a pretty moist deep-layer environment. Evidently, SSTs are favorable as they have been throughout the year -- it's really the mid-level instability issues coupled with dry air this season has been having that could limit development. Personally for these reasons, I think this will stay comparatively weak--if it even develops. Personally, I would've kept development chances at 20% for now due to the slow development process this will likely undergo.

Currently very light steering pattern in the area, and I see no reason for that to change. Should start speeding up once and if it develops into something good at the surface. Ridging to its north extending westward should be pretty strong, except for the a slight weakness to its northwest, but it should continue to build in all levels, esp with the upper cyclonic pattern in the Caribbean soon dissipating. Therefore I expect a generally westward track, then possibly briefly very slightly south due west, and eventually west-northwestward motion as it approaches the Carib.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cranica]

I think everyone's just burnt out on weak CV tropical storms after the last two months, especially since this seems to be the same lather-rinse-repeat dry air/shear/large circulation envelope story we've already seen six times. Wake me up when there's something in the Caribbean

[dexterlabio]

Just an observation in this forum. When there are many people in particular place discussing a certain system, it becomes an upset and doesn't really give a big show to them. Just kidding. After all, the season hasn't ended yet, has it?

I don't know but the 99L invest looks like just a part of 98L. Any thoughts?

[cycloneye]

Latest ASCAT pass made around 8 PM EDT.



Saved image by ImageShack.us

[Hylian Auree]

Latest ASCAT pass made around 8 PM EDT.

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/9717/20110919005.gif

Saved image by ImageShack.us

Well, that certainly doesn't look very organized XD
Could be another multi-vortice beast we've seen so often this season.

I don't know but the 99L invest looks like just a part of 98L. Any thoughts?

It might've developed from the same mean low-pressure blob but it's a separate entity on its own now. If you look at the latest visible images, you can clearly see it moving westward at a faster pace than 98L as a naked weak swirl--yet a better-defined one than 98L currently has.

17.5N 45-46.5W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html