ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[CaneCurious]

The 12Z Euro looks pretty close to home.

[wxman57]

968 mb at hour 168 on 12z euro; yeah that's a little robust.

... and heading toward the lower Texas coast. Very similar to the Canadian, but it stalls the storm south of the LA coast rather than just inland. Both the Canadian and Euro have it missing the trof to the north, being blocked, then moving SW. GFS is the only model to forecast it to be picked up by the trof and move off to the NE. It's definitely the outlier.

[ROCK]

Heads SW toward the south Texas coast at 168 hours...a stalled out or looping hurricane in the Gulf? This should be fun for forcasters

2 runs in a row with the EURO( in the short term) is like doubling down with 2 aces.....

[Ivanhater]

968 mb at hour 168 on 12z euro; yeah that's a little robust.

... and heading toward the lower Texas coast. Very similar to the Canadian, but it stalls the storm south of the LA coast rather than just inland. Both the Canadian and Euro have it missing the trof to the north, being blocked, then moving SW. GFS is the only model to forecast it to be picked up by the trof and move off to the NE. It's definitely the outlier.

The Euro is very close to getting picked up by the trough to be fair. How far west this gets in the short term is going to make a huge difference in this getting picked up or left behind in the Gulf imo.

[Rainband]

Early models runs are fun. Let the flip Flops begin.....

[Clint_TX]

968 mb at hour 168 on 12z euro; yeah that's a little robust.

... and heading toward the lower Texas coast. Very similar to the Canadian, but it stalls the storm south of the LA coast rather than just inland. Both the Canadian and Euro have it missing the trof to the north, being blocked, then moving SW. GFS is the only model to forecast it to be picked up by the trof and move off to the NE. It's definitely the outlier.

Very exciting times sir! I'm sure Nelson is getting pumped for this forecast.

[underthwx]

is recon for today or tommorrow?

[Aric Dunn]

man that circ is getting going real quick..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[PauleinHouston]

is recon for today or tommorrow?

Scheduled tomorrow at this point

[Bruiser]

Big N00B here, but how much do we think Katia will affect this? If she escapes to the north could that pull stb Lee toward FL?

[Air Force Met]

Just as I suspected. Euro has been all over the place. Euro Fail...Still too early though to know for sure..

Give it a rest. So you don't like the Euro. The GFS has had plenty of failures this year. Euro was pretty consistent with Irene, keeping the track close to the coast...when the GFS has started moving it out to sea and had to bring it back towards the coast. The GFS was horrible with Don. The Euro wasn't much better. A blend worked OK.

It's a model. The GFS is a model. Any Euro-hating...or even GFS-hating agenda's are not going to be tolerated. Either add something constructive or don't add anything at all.

[wxman57]

The Euro is very close to getting picked up by the trough to be fair. How far west this gets in the short term is going to make a huge difference in this getting picked up or left behind in the Gulf imo.

Yep, almost but not quite picked up. Wonder if the 00Z GFS will do a switch and show it blocked then moving west once the blocking high moves east?

[KWT]

ECM really does explode this system, gets down to 968mbs, so it shows pretty condusive conditions aloft to get that strong, esp if it spends the best part of a week out there.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS wipes New Orleans off the map,

Aswell as Katia being a CONUS system, something else develops behind it.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[fci]

I'll give it 2-3 days before the thread on 93L/Future Lee passes the thread on Katia in number of pages.......

[HurricaneBelle]

a stalled out or looping hurricane in the Gulf? This should be fun for forcasters

Yeah, we don't "Juan" that to happen again:



Juan sat off the Louisiana coast for a day, moved inland, and then came back out again.

[Stormcenter]

I don't see how New Orleans gets wiped off the map on that run.

GFS wipes New Orleans off the map,

Aswell as Katia being a CONUS system, something else develops behind it.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I don't see how New Orleans gets wiped off the map on that run.

GFS wipes New Orleans off the map,

Aswell as Katia being a CONUS system, something else develops behind it.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

A category 1 sitting over gulf waters, stalled out for a week, next to a city built in a giant ditch? Flood much?

[Rockin4NOLA]

Yea can someone explain that GFS map to me? I dont understand how to analyze it..sorry real noob here and concerned about this storm....any help greatly appreciated.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

:uarrow: Yea can someone explain that GFS map to me? I dont understand how to analyze it..sorry real noob here and concerned about this storm....any help greatly appreciated.

I didnt want to alarm you. Its really too early, models tend to destroy cities many times over. Dont panic, models will shift around.