ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

The only thing I worry about is somehow ridging building in above this Invest and sending it to the east coast again.......I know it's long term, but the Euro is pretty scary on strength... Let's just hope and pray that the models continue to keep it out to sea.

The good news is that it's already up to 30% for development, and developing this far out, should result in a recurve situation.....

The only time I would start worrying is if we begin to see a more westward trend with the models....Until then, no worries.....

[bamajammer4eva]

The only thing I worry about is somehow ridging building in above this Invest and sending it to the east coast again.......I know it's long term, but the Euro is pretty scary on strength... Let's just hope and pray that the models continue to keep it out to sea.

The good news is that it's already up to 30% for development, and developing this far out, should result in a recurve situation.....

The only time I would start worrying is if we begin to see a more westward trend with the models....Until then, no worries.....

Yeah, as long as by 24 hours we have a closed system since that is what the Euro shows in its forecast for recurvature, No problem If its weaker, it goes further westbound. NHC is 30% within 48h not 24.

[Gustywind]

30%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280907
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/CANGIALOSI

[Gustywind]

Mentionned as a special feature...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 280600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...


A 1012 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N19W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM DAKAR SENEGAL W OF THE LOW TO 10N22W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 9 KT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

I am surprised that the 00z ECMWF was not posted.

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

20110828.0930.92LINVEST.20kts-1011mb-103N-205W.

[cycloneye]

of the three the first two affected Puerto Rico, one the Cat 3 going straight through and the third was far away, strong and to the south, enough to cringe. I agree that is too little data to predict anything.

However, I note that being so down south it may take it longer to detatch from the ITZ, which would not be good, The high has tended to be strong. Do for now based on Luis data itcis rational to err on the side of stronger as opposed to lower values. Other parameters hav to be examined. How is Mr. Sal doing? how fast is it moving west? how strong can it get so low based on the precedents mentioned while it remains so low? big questions and depending on the answer another monster?

Puerto Rico hurricanr history has several periods of multiple strikes in a single year by significant hurricanes, mostly on a e or se to wnw direction. It generally happens at least once every century Seversl of those hurricanes ended somewhere in the East Coast , from the. Keys up.

It will be very important to see if by being at low latitude,it avoids any weakness that may be in the Atlantic. The position where it is now reminds me of Georges. But of course,there is plenty of time to watch it to see how it will track.

[SouthFLTropics]

Luis, Everyone is either dealing with Irene or they are catching up on sleep after a week of tracking here. Got to rest up now because the trend of the models looks like we are going to have something else to track in the coming days.

SFT

[painkillerr]

Low latitude, slow westward track = possible trouble for the islands! Let's see what it does.

[tolakram]

Copied image of the mighty euro

[shaggy]

After watching the models take Irene( she put a beating on me in eastern NC) from a eastern GOM threat to almost a recurve I am skeptical of any long range model right. However if this one develops early then the recurve or the apparent recurve seems likely.

[painkillerr]

40%

[cycloneye]

40%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[abajan]

Looking very healthy. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if this becomes a tropical depression tonight.

[lonelymike]

[quote="SFLcane"]Could be luis...One thing is for sure models for the time being are faily aggresive in terms of development.

Experimnetal FIM is also developing it and turns northward pretty quickly.

How has the FIM done in comparison of performance with the other models?

[abajan]

Latest forecast tracks


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[pgoss11]

The ridge would have to get stronger and 92L would have to develop slowly for this not to be a fish. Still to early to say..

[BigA]

Some westward trend from the early recurvers (they still look to recurve east of CONUS based on latest runs)

06 GFS recurves near Bermuda

00 FIM looks to threaten Bermuda.

[GCANE]

TRMM showing a lot of small hot towers. This could be a strong system.

Waiting to get AMSU soundings to see if a warm core is developing.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.18pc.jpg

-- edited by tolakram to fix link

[johngaltfla]

THIS is the storm that has me concerned. It is in the traditional Cape Verde slot and if the Bermuda high builds back in there's nothing but warm water and real estate for this sucker to traverse across the Atlantic. Makes me wonder if those who said this might be another Greek alphabet year are on to something.