ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

It looks more and more likely that we will see Jose from this system.

[Lowpressure]

Nice banding already, looks pretty good and rather large as well.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm tired of following Irene and her wild model swings! Bring on Jose!

[cycloneye]

I have a feeling many will start to visit this thread as the east shift continues.

[wxman57]

No sense in even speculating what it will do 10+ days from now. Look at how far off the models were on Irene 5 days out!

Yeah, I'm looking at the Euro's 10-day forecast on the 12Z run August 15th. It actually forecast the disturbance near Africa that would become Irene to be located in the east-central Bahamas tomorrow, the 25th. What a crappy forecast! Can't trust those models that far out (note the sarcasm).

As for 90L, current indications are that the ridge to its north will not be strong enough to prevent recurvature well east of the Caribbean, closer to the Cape Verde Islands than the Caribbean, in fact.

[Lowpressure]

I have a feeling many will start to visit this thread as the east shift continues.

That is why we all do what we do Luis.

[wxman57]

I'm tired of following Irene and her wild model swings! Bring on Jose!

Jose will be a fish in the far eastern Atlantic, bring on Katia!

[ROCK]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots


wants to recurve but the BAMM and TVCN bends it back SW..building high over it probably.but still the GFS ensembles suggest recurve....Note: 12Z deep BAM taking this back to Africa...


havent checked last nights EURO....

[rainstorm]

I'm tired of following Irene and her wild model swings! Bring on Jose!

Jose will be a fish in the far eastern Atlantic, bring on Katia!

do you think anything is going to change pattern wise so that something wont recurve? do you see the texas ridge breaking down by sept?

[jhpigott]

I'm tired of following Irene and her wild model swings! Bring on Jose!

Jose will be a fish in the far eastern Atlantic, bring on Katia!

OT - Is this weakening of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge something that will continue and cause more fishy type tracks from CV systems the remainder of the hurricane season?

[PTrackerLA]

I'm tired of following Irene and her wild model swings! Bring on Jose!

Jose will be a fish in the far eastern Atlantic, bring on Katia!

And let's keep Katia out of the gulf .

[tronbunny]

I'm tired of following Irene and her wild model swings! Bring on Jose!

Jose will be a fish in the far eastern Atlantic, bring on Katia!

OT - Is this weakening of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge something that will continue and cause more fishy type tracks from CV systems the remainder of the hurricane season?

I have the same question.
What happened to our stalwart ridge?

[cycloneye]

Negative NAO is the answer.

[rainstorm]

:uarrow: Negative NAO is the answer.

its something i have been keen on. the NAO has been negative during cane season for 3 years now and no landfalls even though numbers are up.

[hurricaneCW]

Kind of off topic, but it's interesting that the NAO is expected to spike up in the next few days just around the time Irene goes up the east coast.

[HurricaneFan]

:uarrow: Negative NAO is the answer.

But wasn't it forecasted about a week ago that it would turn positive and the ridge would then strengthen again?

[HurricaneFan]

Kind of off topic, but it's interesting that the NAO is expected to spike up in the next few days just around the time Irene goes up the east coast.

Really?How long is it expected to stay on the positive side?

[N2FSU]

No sense in even speculating what it will do 10+ days from now. Look at how far off the models were on Irene 5 days out!

Yeah, I'm looking at the Euro's 10-day forecast on the 12Z run August 15th. It actually forecast the disturbance near Africa that would become Irene to be located in the east-central Bahamas tomorrow, the 25th. What a crappy forecast! Can't trust those models that far out (note the sarcasm).

As for 90L, current indications are that the ridge to its north will not be strong enough to prevent recurvature well east of the Caribbean, closer to the Cape Verde Islands than the Caribbean, in fact.

Good point wxman57. I guess I should clarify... No point in getting anxious/worried/nervous/ excited about a fairly definite area of landfall until 72 hours out or less. I have been on this board for 8 years (started with the old Lowes site) and you would think I would have learned by now! I am a helicopter Flight Nurse and pilot, and my employer has the FEMA contract for aeromedical evacs (I deployed for Ike), so in addition to being a weather fanatic, I watch the long range model predictions for my future job obligations also.

[otowntiger]

I'm tired of following Irene and her wild model swings! Bring on Jose!

Jose will be a fish in the far eastern Atlantic, bring on Katia!

Given the current pattern does that mean we need to be looking at more 'home grown' threats? The long Cape Verde trackers by and large look to be re-curvers this year right or is that something that can change before the "Cape Verde 'season' "is over?

[cycloneye]

The latest. Code Red at 2 PM?