WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[StormingB81]

58 mph is the magic number here to get locked down...as long as it isnt a 48 hour one like a couple of weeks ago...lol

[supercane]

JMA 18Z analysis:
WWJP25 RJTD 211800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 24.7N 142.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING SOUTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 141E 39N 142E
42N 143E 46N 150E 51N 156E 51N 164E 60N 165E 60N 180E 38N 180E 38N
165E 36N 150E 35N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 42N 154E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 128E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 28N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 49N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 178E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 121E TO 32N 130E 35N 137E 35N 142E 38N 146E
39N 150E 42N 154E 43N 161E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Latest Dvorak estimates from SAB at 2.0/30kt and from JTWC 1.5/25kt:
TXPQ25 KNES 212107
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 21/2032Z
C. 13.4N
D. 127.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS... 3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH PT=1.5. FT IS
BASED ON WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI

TPPN11 PGTW 211817
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 21/1732Z
C. 13.8N
D. 127.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .25 ON LOG 10
SPRIAL YIELDS A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BELMONDO
ASCAT missed earlier.

[euro6208]

the latest EURO run has gotten really weirder now... develops two circulations, both embedded along the monsoon trough, both of them intensify across the Philippine Sea and we then see a full-blown Fujiwhara Effect, moving towards the Okinawa-Ryukyus area...

obviously, with two systems directly interacting, the movement has slowed down and the effects it could have to the Japanese Islands have been delayed by at least a day or two...

i also want to note that CMC kinda shows the same thing (showed it too yesterday), albeit weaker, so can't really discount that solution... still long way out though, we don't even have the systems yet to begin with lol...

the latest euro shows a more stronger twin typhoons. it looks like both will peak at category 3 or 4 strength!

[euro6208]

the latest EURO run has gotten really weirder now... develops two circulations, both embedded along the monsoon trough, both of them intensify across the Philippine Sea and we then see a full-blown Fujiwhara Effect, moving towards the Okinawa-Ryukyus area...

obviously, with two systems directly interacting, the movement has slowed down and the effects it could have to the Japanese Islands have been delayed by at least a day or two...

i also want to note that CMC kinda shows the same thing (showed it too yesterday), albeit weaker, so can't really discount that solution... still long way out though, we don't even have the systems yet to begin with lol...

the latest euro shows a more stronger twin typhoons. it looks like both will peak at category 3 or 4 strength!

T2.0/2.0 96W -- West Pacific

[rdhdstpchld]

are you friggin kidding me? SCHOOL STARTS next week...HELLO???



eta: can someone post those euro runs? tia

[euro6208]

very exciting day in okinawa

[rdhdstpchld]

Thanks Euro - I realize i don't add much to these discussions, but I find them extremely useful for my own planning purposes, so thanks all for your discussions!!

[Macrocane]

If the scenario depicted by the Euro and Canadian verifies it will be a very interesting situation, I really like the Fujiwhara's.

[dexterlabio]

Latest from euro



Seems scattered now compared to last night.


From other agencies

[Typhoon Hunter]

I am not to stoked about this one..

Hey Rob, couldn't get that image you posted to load, is it the shear you're talking about?

Models, specifically ECMWF, ramp this up into a major player in the next few days.

As for the models they seem all over the place in the near term. The other system north of Guam is the real spanner in the works!

[StormingB81]

This could be a very bad day for Japan if both of them hit on the same day in 2 different spots as a cat 3 or 4..has that ever happend anywhere?

[Typhoon Hunter]

This could be a very bad day for Japan if both of them hit on the same day in 2 different spots as a cat 3 or 4..has that ever happend anywhere?

I think it's highly unlikely and the ECMWF is overcooking the situation. I think one circulation is likely to dominate the other - to get two such strong systems so close to each other is just bizarre. ECMWF often spins up "dancing TCs" but it rarely pans out.

Just my amateur opinion!

[StormingB81]

This could be a very bad day for Japan if both of them hit on the same day in 2 different spots as a cat 3 or 4..has that ever happend anywhere?

I think it's highly unlikely and the ECMWF is overcooking the situation. I think one circulation is likely to dominate the other - to get two such strong systems so close to each other is just bizarre. ECMWF often spins up "dancing TCs" but it rarely pans out.

Just my amateur opinion!

I was just asking but if that does happen that would be crazy...But thats 8 days or so away thats like a lifetime in typhoons terms alot can and will happend

[supercane]

PAGASA calling this Tropical Depression Mina:
WTPH RPMM 220000
TTT WARNING 03

AT 0000 22 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWARD SLOWLY MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 230000 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST 240000 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 250000 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

00Z JMA analysis:
WWJP25 RJTD 220000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 220000.
WARNING VALID 230000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 24.6N 141.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 14.0N 127.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 42N 140E
46N 150E 50N 155E 50N 166E 55N 166E 60N 170E 60N 180E 38N 180E 38N
165E 37N 148E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 32N 121E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 29N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 48N 154E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 178E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 113E TO 31N 117E 32N 121E 33N 128E 33N 134E
35N 141E 37N 146E 40N 150E 42N 156E 44N 162E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Latest Dvorak estimate from SAB still 2.0/30kt:
TXPQ25 KNES 220317
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 22/0232Z
C. 13.8N
D. 128.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS TRYING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION
BUILDING TO SOUTH OF LLC. CONVECTION WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE AT 2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER

[Infdidoll]

ECMW predicted a Fujiwhara once already this summer and that one didn't really pan out so well. Tokage got eaten by Ma-on.

Sometimes the attraction really isn't strong enough to make the storms actually revolve around each other but the pull can alter the tracks of the storm. I'm sure our Philippines friends can remember Parma's interaction with Melor, all too well, several years ago.

Too many factors to really predict exactly what's going to happen, but it will be fun to watch. Just hoping we don't end up with a Parma-like situation around here. I think we saw enough rain with Muifa! Send that rain to Texas would ya?

[supercane]

Latest vis:

Latest ASCAT:

[StormingB81]

ECMW predicted a Fujiwhara once already this summer and that one didn't really pan out so well. Tokage got eaten by Ma-on.

Sometimes the attraction really isn't strong enough to make the storms actually revolve around each other but the pull can alter the tracks of the storm. I'm sure our Philippines friends can remember Parma's interaction with Melor, all too well, several years ago.

Too many factors to really predict exactly what's going to happen, but it will be fun to watch. Just hoping we don't end up with a Parma-like situation around here. I think we saw enough rain with Muifa! Send that rain to Texas would ya?

If it were to do that and stall or move slow and we get alot of rain I think we would be in trouble with 95 Inches of rain ytd if we got say another 40 inches of rain we could be in trouble...and plus with the damaged building still around could cause a big headache.

[dexterlabio]

It will depend on the other system depicted to form alongside with this TD. If it does form and becomes almost equal in intensity as 96W then probably we can witness a classic Fujiwara effect to take place, also considering the proximity of the two systems from each other. Parma in 2009 felt most of the DCI with Melor because of its weakened state upon making landfall, I don't know how Melor's movement was affected by the Fujiwara effect but I think the effect was minimal because at that time, Melor was a supertyphoon and Parma was a minimal Cat1 typhoon, so DCI had more impact on the weaker Parma...

[phwxenthusiast]

96W is still looking unimpressive at the moment; still doesn't look vertically stacked in my eyes... although some new convection blowing up near the center (i'm guessing near 14.2N 128.2E)... shear also looks to be weakening bit by bit, so we'll see...



a good deal of model solutions still favor 96W to slowly develop over the next few days... a number of them also wants to develop another circulation, near Guam; this two will compete which brings another uncertainty to the forecasts as we head into the weekend... ECMWF still showing the Fujiwhara but less pronounced this time...

Okinawa still looks to the eventual target by early next week...

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

ECMW predicted a Fujiwhara once already this summer and that one didn't really pan out so well. Tokage got eaten by Ma-on.

Sometimes the attraction really isn't strong enough to make the storms actually revolve around each other but the pull can alter the tracks of the storm. I'm sure our Philippines friends can remember Parma's interaction with Melor, all too well, several years ago.

Too many factors to really predict exactly what's going to happen, but it will be fun to watch. Just hoping we don't end up with a Parma-like situation around here. I think we saw enough rain with Muifa! Send that rain to Texas would ya?

That will be hell if the storm takes a hit exactly to your area and then comes back again exactly as it did...it's like hitting bull's eye with a dart twice! lol.

I have to say that a Fujiwara effect setup is very complicated. It had all the models screwed up during Parma and only GFS got it right when Parma made the second and third landfall...I don't know if I remember it right though... I hope if that setup pans out, the models will be able to get it right so as to avoid confusion among the people concerned.