ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

[Cyclone1]

Wwwwwwwwwwhat? I wake up and this is off the coast?

I need to start paying more attention. To be honest, I'm kinda stunned. Look at this thing! I'm not really sure why no news station including the weather channel will give it more than a passing mention.

[northjaxpro]

93L is looking better and better. A very good thing this system is moving at a good clip or else we would have some significant concerns along the NE FL coast.

Jax radar showing very good convective banding rotating around the Low center, which is about 170 miles due east of Jacksonville Beach right now. 93L has a 10 hour window today to be classified as a TD if NHC pulls the trigger on it before it moves ashore.

[Frank2]

I have to disagree - it looks better on satelitte than it does on radar (see srainhoutx's NWS radar image) - not very well organized except for the MLC seen on satellite, though it might have been better organized yesterday...

Either way, it'll cross the coast later today or tonight and give Northern Florida some very needed rain - fire season is here...

TWC has mentioned little about it and my guess is that Dr. Knabb isn't that excited about it either, though the season does seem to be off to a quick start...

Frank

[northjaxpro]

I have to disagree - it looks better on satelitte than it does on radar (see srainhoutx's NWS radar image) - not very well organized except for the MLC seen on satellite, though it might have been better organized yesterday...

Either way, it'll cross the coast later today or tonight and give Northern Florida some very needed rain - fire season is here...

TWC has mentioned little about it and my guess is that Dr. Knabb isn't that excited about it either, though the season does seem to be off to a quick start...

Frank

I just saw Dr. Knabb last hour and he pointed out the medium 30 percent NHC has for this to gain TD status. He also pointed out the decent banding and outflow of 93L as well.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2011060112, , BEST, 0, 303N, 785W, 25, 1013, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 011224
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1224 UTC WED JUN 1 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110601 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110601 1200 110602 0000 110602 1200 110603 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.3N 78.5W 29.3N 82.1W 28.5N 86.0W 28.0N 89.9W
BAMD 30.3N 78.5W 29.4N 81.6W 28.5N 84.3W 27.8N 87.0W
BAMM 30.3N 78.5W 29.5N 81.9W 28.7N 85.4W 28.3N 89.0W
LBAR 30.3N 78.5W 29.3N 81.8W 28.6N 84.8W 28.1N 87.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 34KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110603 1200 110604 1200 110605 1200 110606 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.6N 93.9W 32.8N 99.3W 37.0N 100.2W 40.0N 97.2W
BAMD 27.5N 90.1W 29.7N 96.1W 31.8N 99.2W 33.2N 99.4W
BAMM 28.4N 92.5W 31.0N 98.4W 33.9N 101.5W 36.3N 102.1W
LBAR 27.6N 90.9W 27.4N 96.3W 27.2N 99.1W 26.6N 100.1W
SHIP 44KTS 54KTS 61KTS 67KTS
DSHP 41KTS 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.3N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 32.2N LONM12 = 74.0W DIRM12 = 234DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 35.3N LONM24 = 70.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



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[Frank2]

Thanks for the update - well, to me it still seems to be one of those systems that has an impressive MLC but on radar just isn't as exciting - with a 1013 mb low we can't expect too much...

It's moving at a good rate and the leading edge will be crossing the coast around lunchtime, so not to worry - just some welcome cloud cover and needed rain...

Frank2

[jdray]

Good, we need some rain here in NE Florida.
It is looking decent, but is running out of room quickly to develop.

NWS JAX is just seeing a little rain from it,

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A MID/LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE E/NELY FLOW
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES E/NE OF JAX AND WILL
TRACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. AS WE ENTER JUNE IN THE
MIDST OF SEVERE/EXTREME DROUGHT CONDS...WHEN THE WET SEASON SHOULD
BE UNDERWAY...WE ARE ACTUALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF PCPN
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE...AND AS OF 2 AM...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED INLAND FROM THE COAST...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...TRACK OF DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE FOR PCPN
CHANCES...AND IT APPEARS TO BE TRACKING TOWARD CNTRL FLORIDA AND THE
I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT ENOUGH PCPN IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE TO PUSH POPS INTO THE 30-50% RANGE FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXITING TO
THE WEST BY THE EVENING HOURS. AREAS ACRS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL
ONLY SEE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMP FORECAST A BIT OF
A CHALLENGE AS WILL FINALLY SEE SOME CLOUDS THAT WILL PREVENT
GUIDANCE FROM BEING SO MUCH COOLER THAN ACTUAL HIGHS AND HAVE
ACCEPTED MOSGUIDE VALUES IN THE ZFP/GRIDS FOR TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND WITH AREAS NEARING THE UPPER 90S ACRS
SERN GA...WHILE THE COAST WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S.

[cycloneye]

Floater for 93L.

[Hylian Auree]

It's certainly looking tight up there in the middle levels. Models are anticipating a continuous westward movement due south, so if it can hold its own while crossing N Florida, it might have a chance at redeveloping in the eastern Gulf (low shear but marginal SSTs).

[drezee]

Great Radar Loop:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... mreports=0

[Dean4Storms]

It looks as good as ever this morning. If this was moving a good bit slower it might have had a shot at becoming Tropical. Will need to monitor once over in the Gulf!

[AdamFirst]

Is it bad that I learned about this just now on Facebook? I'm slacking...

Welcome back, everybody! It's gonna be an interesting year.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Dean4Storms"]It looks as good as ever this morning. If this was moving a good bit slower it might have had a shot at becoming Tropical. Will need to monitor once over in the Gulf![/quote]


Hey Dean...as badly as we need the rain up here in the Panhandle it doesn't look like this system will get close enough to give us any relief. The Tallahassee NWS didn't even make mention of it in their AFD...

[Meso]

Definitely got some fighting spirit in it, I wasn't expecting it to have such a solid area of convection at this stage, and the circulation appears to remain strong too. A nice way to usher in 2011 hurricane season.

[Dean4Storms]

If anyone besides FL see's any rain from this it looks like it will be TX. Don't see much chance from the FL Panhandle though LA sad to say. Too small and dropping much to far SW!

[Dean4Storms]

It looks as good as ever this morning. If this was moving a good bit slower it might have had a shot at becoming Tropical. Will need to monitor once over in the Gulf!

Hey Dean...as badly as we need the rain up here in the Panhandle it doesn't look like this system will get close enough to give us any relief. The Tallahassee NWS didn't even make mention of it in their AFD...

I agree, it might enhance the sea breeze thunderstorms in the heat tomorrow inland but other than that it looks too small and too far south!

[PTrackerLA]

Any chance of this developing in the gulf or bringing rain to the northern gulf coast? Nice feature to ring in the season.

[Cryomaniac]

Interesting start to the season for sure.

[wxman57]

Well, it has convection and an LLC. If the NHC wanted to call it a TD they could at any time. They've named far weaker systems in the past. I put it a few hundred miles south of Pensacola this time tomorrow and approaching the mid to upper TX coast by late Friday morning. Not a lot of time, but it could be classified a TD at any time and possibly a weaker TS in the northern Gulf tomorrow.

Any word on recon plans for tomorrow? Haven't had a chance to look.