#47 Postby dexterlabio » Fri May 20, 2011 2:36 am
WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 8.3N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N 141.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 8.5N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 8.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 9.2N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 9.7N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.0N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.6N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.3N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 8.3N 141.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES
INCLUDING A 200037Z TRMM PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 04W
IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PROVIDING A
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE TD IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, ENHANCED OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, FUELED BY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE VERY LIMITED
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS TRACK FORECAST. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 200051Z MAY 11 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 200100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z,
202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN
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So I was surprised to see the rapid consolidation of this system. Not to mention that the shear condition around its area is "just okay" but I guess other factors contributed to its improving circulation. 
