SIO: CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone
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HURAKAN
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Re: SIO: CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST Wednesday 16 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn
Island, including Darwin, Croker Island and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth.
At 6:30 pm CST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, Category 1 was estimated to be 20
kilometres southeast of Darwin and 130 kilometres south southeast of Snake Bay
and is slow moving.
The cyclone is expected to remain slow moving near the coast tonight, before
taking a south or southwestward track during Thursday.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast between Darwin and Point Stuart, and along the southern Tiwi Islands.
GALES may extend further south to Daly River Mouth during Thursday, and as far
as Port Keats on Friday.
GALES may also develop between Point Stuart and Goulburn Island, including
Croker Island overnight, if the cyclone takes a more northeasterly track.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Darwin during Thursday.
Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District
and on the Tiwi Islands. VERY HEAVY FALLS may lead to localised flash flooding.
The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and the Rural Area that if
you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of
your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to
use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED
TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO. CYCLONE SHELTERS ARE NOT
OPEN AT THIS TIME.
Residents from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn Island including the Tiwi Islands
and Croker Island are advised that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of communities under Cyclone Watch are advised that now is the time to
put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence
home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 6:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.6 degrees South 131.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 16 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0722 UTC 16/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 131.0E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [104 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1800: 12.7S 130.9E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 993
+24: 17/0600: 12.8S 130.6E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 993
+36: 17/1800: 13.2S 130.1E: 110 [200]: 035 [065]: 994
+48: 18/0600: 13.7S 129.7E: 140 [260]: 035 [065]: 994
+60: 18/1800: 14.3S 129.1E: 190 [345]: 035 [065]: 994
+72: 19/0600: 15.0S 128.4E: 235 [435]: 050 [095]: 985
REMARKS:
Dvorak assessment based on curved band with 0.7 wrap. Radar indicates
well-defined spiral bands within about 50 nm of the centre. Position good, based
on radar animation and surface observations.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Enhanced deep convection in
the northern semicircle is wrapping into southern sectors. Strongly divergent
200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good
outflow in northern sectors indicate further development potential if the system
were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow movement during the next
12-24 hours, followed by south to southwest movement as the mid-level
subtropical ridge to the south begins to weaken and move east.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0722 UTC 16/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 131.0E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [104 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1800: 12.7S 130.9E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 993
+24: 17/0600: 12.8S 130.6E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 993
+36: 17/1800: 13.2S 130.1E: 110 [200]: 035 [065]: 994
+48: 18/0600: 13.7S 129.7E: 140 [260]: 035 [065]: 994
+60: 18/1800: 14.3S 129.1E: 190 [345]: 035 [065]: 994
+72: 19/0600: 15.0S 128.4E: 235 [435]: 050 [095]: 985
REMARKS:
Dvorak assessment based on curved band with 0.7 wrap. Radar indicates
well-defined spiral bands within about 50 nm of the centre. Position good, based
on radar animation and surface observations.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Enhanced deep convection in
the northern semicircle is wrapping into southern sectors. Strongly divergent
200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good
outflow in northern sectors indicate further development potential if the system
were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow movement during the next
12-24 hours, followed by south to southwest movement as the mid-level
subtropical ridge to the south begins to weaken and move east.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1321 UTC 16/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 131.0E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0000: 12.7S 130.9E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 993
+24: 17/1200: 12.8S 130.6E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 993
+36: 18/0000: 13.0S 130.1E: 110 [200]: 035 [065]: 993
+48: 18/1200: 13.6S 129.8E: 140 [260]: 035 [065]: 993
+60: 19/0000: 14.3S 129.1E: 190 [345]: 035 [065]: 994
+72: 19/1200: 15.2S 128.4E: 235 [435]: 035 [065]: 993
REMARKS:
Dvorak assessment based on curved band with 0.6 wrap. Radar indicates
well-defined spiral bands within about 50 nm of the centre. Position good, based
on radar animation and surface observations.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Enhanced deep convection in
the northern semicircle is wrapping into southern sectors. Strongly divergent
200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good
outflow in northern sectors indicate further development potential if the system
were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow movement during the next
12-24 hours, followed by south to southwest movement as the mid-level
subtropical ridge to the south begins to weaken and move east.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1321 UTC 16/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 131.0E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0000: 12.7S 130.9E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 993
+24: 17/1200: 12.8S 130.6E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 993
+36: 18/0000: 13.0S 130.1E: 110 [200]: 035 [065]: 993
+48: 18/1200: 13.6S 129.8E: 140 [260]: 035 [065]: 993
+60: 19/0000: 14.3S 129.1E: 190 [345]: 035 [065]: 994
+72: 19/1200: 15.2S 128.4E: 235 [435]: 035 [065]: 993
REMARKS:
Dvorak assessment based on curved band with 0.6 wrap. Radar indicates
well-defined spiral bands within about 50 nm of the centre. Position good, based
on radar animation and surface observations.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Enhanced deep convection in
the northern semicircle is wrapping into southern sectors. Strongly divergent
200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good
outflow in northern sectors indicate further development potential if the system
were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow movement during the next
12-24 hours, followed by south to southwest movement as the mid-level
subtropical ridge to the south begins to weaken and move east.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 16 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn
Island, including Darwin, Croker Island and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth.
At 9:30 pm CST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, Category 1 was estimated to be 15
kilometres southeast of Darwin and 85 kilometres east northeast of Dundee Beach
and is slow moving.
The cyclone is expected to remain slow moving near the coast tonight, before
taking a south or southwestward track during Thursday.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast between Darwin and Point Stuart, and along the southern Tiwi Islands.
GALES may extend further south to Daly River Mouth during Thursday, and as far
as Port Keats on Friday.
GALES may also develop between Point Stuart and Goulburn Island, including
Croker Island overnight, if the cyclone takes a more northeasterly track.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Darwin during Thursday.
Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District
and on the Tiwi Islands. VERY HEAVY FALLS may lead to localised flash flooding.
The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and the Rural Area that if
you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of
your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to
use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED
TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO. CYCLONE SHELTERS ARE NOT
OPEN AT THIS TIME.
Residents from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn Island including the Tiwi Islands
and Croker Island are advised that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of communities under Cyclone Watch are advised that now is the time to
put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence
home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 131.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Thursday 17 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 16 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn
Island, including Darwin, Croker Island and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth.
At 9:30 pm CST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, Category 1 was estimated to be 15
kilometres southeast of Darwin and 85 kilometres east northeast of Dundee Beach
and is slow moving.
The cyclone is expected to remain slow moving near the coast tonight, before
taking a south or southwestward track during Thursday.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast between Darwin and Point Stuart, and along the southern Tiwi Islands.
GALES may extend further south to Daly River Mouth during Thursday, and as far
as Port Keats on Friday.
GALES may also develop between Point Stuart and Goulburn Island, including
Croker Island overnight, if the cyclone takes a more northeasterly track.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Darwin during Thursday.
Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District
and on the Tiwi Islands. VERY HEAVY FALLS may lead to localised flash flooding.
The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and the Rural Area that if
you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of
your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to
use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED
TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO. CYCLONE SHELTERS ARE NOT
OPEN AT THIS TIME.
Residents from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn Island including the Tiwi Islands
and Croker Island are advised that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of communities under Cyclone Watch are advised that now is the time to
put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence
home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 131.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Thursday 17 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST Thursday 17 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn
Island, including Darwin, Croker Island and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth.
At 12:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, Category 1 was estimated to be 30
kilometres southeast of Darwin and 90 kilometres east northeast of Dundee Beach
and is slow moving.
The cyclone is expected to remain slow moving near the coast this morning,
before taking a south or southwestward track later today.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast between Darwin and Point Stuart, and along the southern Tiwi Islands.
GALES may extend further south to Daly River Mouth during today, and as far as
Port Keats on Friday.
GALES may also develop between Point Stuart and Goulburn Island, including
Croker Island during today, if the cyclone takes a more northeasterly track.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Darwin during today.
Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District
and on the Tiwi Islands. VERY HEAVY FALLS may lead to localised flash flooding.
The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and the Rural Area that if
you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of
your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to
use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED
TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO. CYCLONE SHELTERS ARE NOT
OPEN AT THIS TIME.
Residents from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn Island including the Tiwi Islands
and Croker Island are advised that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of communities under Cyclone Watch are advised that now is the time to
put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence
home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 12:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.6 degrees South 131.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Thursday 17 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1956 UTC 16/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 131.3E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [144 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0600: 13.2S 131.2E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 17/1800: 13.4S 130.7E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 995
+36: 18/0600: 13.8S 130.0E: 110 [200]: 035 [065]: 996
+48: 18/1800: 14.4S 129.4E: 140 [260]: 040 [075]: 994
+60: 19/0600: 15.0S 128.7E: 190 [350]: 045 [085]: 987
+72: 19/1800: 15.7S 127.7E: 235 [435]: 035 [065]: 996
REMARKS:
Dvorak assessment based on curved band with 0.45 wrap resulting in FT=2.5.
System over land but holding CI at 3.0 for now. Radar indicates well-defined
spiral bands within about 50 nm of the centre. Position good, based on radar
animation and surface observations.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Enhanced deep convection in
the northeastern semicircle is wrapping into southern sectors. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development
potential if the system were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow movement during the next
12-24 hours, followed by south to southwest movement as the mid-level
subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1956 UTC 16/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 131.3E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [144 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0600: 13.2S 131.2E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 17/1800: 13.4S 130.7E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 995
+36: 18/0600: 13.8S 130.0E: 110 [200]: 035 [065]: 996
+48: 18/1800: 14.4S 129.4E: 140 [260]: 040 [075]: 994
+60: 19/0600: 15.0S 128.7E: 190 [350]: 045 [085]: 987
+72: 19/1800: 15.7S 127.7E: 235 [435]: 035 [065]: 996
REMARKS:
Dvorak assessment based on curved band with 0.45 wrap resulting in FT=2.5.
System over land but holding CI at 3.0 for now. Radar indicates well-defined
spiral bands within about 50 nm of the centre. Position good, based on radar
animation and surface observations.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Enhanced deep convection in
the northeastern semicircle is wrapping into southern sectors. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development
potential if the system were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow movement during the next
12-24 hours, followed by south to southwest movement as the mid-level
subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 12.8S 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2S 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.9S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.3S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.7S 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6S 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8S 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.6S 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 131.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SE
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. AT APPROXIMATELY 18Z, RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN
INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS LOCATED OVER
LAND JUST SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
INTERPOLATION OF SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FROM DARWIN (999 MB) AND
CORRELATES TO APPROXIMATELY 35 KNOTS. DUE TO THE LLCC SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY AT TAU 48 WHEN
THE SYSTEM TRACKS BRIEFLY OVER WATER. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN BELOW
WARNING THRESHOLD CRITERIA AS IT REMAINS INLAND. THE NOSE OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE AS THE PARENT RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO REMAIN OVER LAND. FORECAST INTENSITY MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED (UP OR DOWN) IF THIS SYSTEM VEERS CLOSER TO WATER OR MOVES
FURTHER INLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST [6:30 am WST] Thursday 17 February 2011
The Cyclone Warning between Port Keats to Oenpelli, including Darwin, Batchelor,
Adelaide River and the Tiwi Islands, has been CANCELLED.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.
At 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was estimated to be over
land
95 kilometres southeast of Darwin and 40 kilometres east of Batchelor and
moving south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour further inland.
The cyclone has weakened into a tropical low and winds near the centre have
moderated below gale force. It is expected to move towards the south or
southwest and may move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Friday or early
Saturday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop later.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Daly River Mouth during
today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the Darwin-Daly District and on the
Tiwi Islands. VERY HEAVY FALLS may lead to localised flash flooding.
Refer to Severe Weather Warning for the Darwin-Daly District issued at 8:00 am.
Residents of communities under Cyclone Watch are advised that now is the time to
put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence
home shelter preparations.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 6:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 131.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Thursday 17 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST [6:30 am WST] Thursday 17 February 2011
The Cyclone Warning between Port Keats to Oenpelli, including Darwin, Batchelor,
Adelaide River and the Tiwi Islands, has been CANCELLED.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.
At 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was estimated to be over
land
95 kilometres southeast of Darwin and 40 kilometres east of Batchelor and
moving south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour further inland.
The cyclone has weakened into a tropical low and winds near the centre have
moderated below gale force. It is expected to move towards the south or
southwest and may move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Friday or early
Saturday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop later.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Daly River Mouth during
today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the Darwin-Daly District and on the
Tiwi Islands. VERY HEAVY FALLS may lead to localised flash flooding.
Refer to Severe Weather Warning for the Darwin-Daly District issued at 8:00 am.
Residents of communities under Cyclone Watch are advised that now is the time to
put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence
home shelter preparations.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 6:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 131.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Thursday 17 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [3:30 am WST] Friday 18 February 2011
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia, including Port Keats,
Kalumburu and Wyndham.
At 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was over land and
estimated to be 155 kilometres south of Darwin and 125 kilometres east northeast
of Port Keats and moving south southwest at 5 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to continue moving southwest and may move
into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Saturday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop between Daly River Mouth in the NT and Kalumburu in WA, if the
system moves over water on Saturday.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between the NT/WA Border and Kalumburu should listen for
the next advice.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 130.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Friday 18 February [9:30 am WST
Friday 18 February].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [3:30 am WST] Friday 18 February 2011
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia, including Port Keats,
Kalumburu and Wyndham.
At 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was over land and
estimated to be 155 kilometres south of Darwin and 125 kilometres east northeast
of Port Keats and moving south southwest at 5 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to continue moving southwest and may move
into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Saturday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop between Daly River Mouth in the NT and Kalumburu in WA, if the
system moves over water on Saturday.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between the NT/WA Border and Kalumburu should listen for
the next advice.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 130.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Friday 18 February [9:30 am WST
Friday 18 February].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1947 UTC 17/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 130.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0600: 14.1S 130.3E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 996
+24: 18/1800: 14.3S 130.1E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 19/0600: 14.4S 129.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 994
+48: 19/1800: 14.6S 128.6E: 150 [280]: 035 [065]: 994
+60: 20/0600: 15.1S 127.1E: 200 [365]: 035 [065]: 995
+72: 20/1800: 15.7S 125.1E: 245 [455]: 030 [055]: 998
REMARKS:
System over land. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface
observations.
There is still a well-developed circulation up to to 500hPa. Strongly divergent
200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good
outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development
potential if the system were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a continued southwest movement as
the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east. This track
may bring the system over the waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Saturday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1947 UTC 17/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 130.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0600: 14.1S 130.3E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 996
+24: 18/1800: 14.3S 130.1E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 19/0600: 14.4S 129.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 994
+48: 19/1800: 14.6S 128.6E: 150 [280]: 035 [065]: 994
+60: 20/0600: 15.1S 127.1E: 200 [365]: 035 [065]: 995
+72: 20/1800: 15.7S 125.1E: 245 [455]: 030 [055]: 998
REMARKS:
System over land. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface
observations.
There is still a well-developed circulation up to to 500hPa. Strongly divergent
200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good
outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development
potential if the system were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a continued southwest movement as
the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east. This track
may bring the system over the waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Saturday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
As of 10:57 am CST Friday 18 February 2011. Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 20 BOM have now moved it back further S again, with less sea and more land beneath its wings.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65011.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65011.shtml
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0824 UTC 18/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 130.3E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [203 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/1800: 14.6S 129.7E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 19/0600: 14.7S 129.0E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 19/1800: 14.8S 127.9E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+48: 20/0600: 15.2S 126.3E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 20/1800: 15.9S 124.4E: 200 [365]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 21/0600: 16.7S 122.2E: 245 [455]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The tropical low remains over land moving slowly southwest. Position fair, based
on radar animation and surface observations. Convective structure has improved
slightly with curved cloudbands evident on radar near LLCC. Dvorak analysis is
unclear with shear pattern yielding DT=1.5. MET=1.5, but FT based on PAT=2.0.
The circulation has become larger with outer convective bands and strong winds
affecting areas between Kuri Bay and the Tiwi Islands.
A 200hPa low south of the system maintains good outflow in NE sector which with
low vertical wind shear provides a favourable environment for redevelopment if
the system moves over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The consensus of numerical
guidance suggests a southwest then westward movement, so TC development depends
on whether the westward turn allows sufficient time over water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0824 UTC 18/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 130.3E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [203 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/1800: 14.6S 129.7E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 19/0600: 14.7S 129.0E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 19/1800: 14.8S 127.9E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+48: 20/0600: 15.2S 126.3E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 20/1800: 15.9S 124.4E: 200 [365]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 21/0600: 16.7S 122.2E: 245 [455]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The tropical low remains over land moving slowly southwest. Position fair, based
on radar animation and surface observations. Convective structure has improved
slightly with curved cloudbands evident on radar near LLCC. Dvorak analysis is
unclear with shear pattern yielding DT=1.5. MET=1.5, but FT based on PAT=2.0.
The circulation has become larger with outer convective bands and strong winds
affecting areas between Kuri Bay and the Tiwi Islands.
A 200hPa low south of the system maintains good outflow in NE sector which with
low vertical wind shear provides a favourable environment for redevelopment if
the system moves over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The consensus of numerical
guidance suggests a southwest then westward movement, so TC development depends
on whether the westward turn allows sufficient time over water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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