WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

euro6208 · #301 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Jul 15, 2011 11:36 pm

yes ma-on is strengthening. i would place the intensity at 115 knots based on its ever increasing well defined eye.

phwxenthusiast · #302 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Fri Jul 15, 2011 11:58 pm

i don't know, i mean it's ingesting too much dry air... yeah the eye and the immediate areas look good but the surrounds still sorting it out it seems... i'll give this one more burst of intensification tomorrow though... just my opinion

Fyzn94 · #303 Postby **Fyzn94** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:16 am

Latest Visible:

euro6208 · #304 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:36 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 933.0mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3

Weakening Flag : OFF

ma-on continuing to strengthen

BriManG35 · #305 Postby **BriManG35** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:09 am

http://imageshack.u :rarrow:

s/g/5/dscn8347m.jpg/

BriManG35 · #306 Postby **BriManG35** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:12 am

euro6208 · #307 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:14 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 928.7mb/119.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

euro6208 · #308 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:16 am

BriManG35 wrote::rarrow:
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/7641/dscn8347m.jpg
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/6295/dscn8139.jpg
http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/2703/dscn8142s.jpg
http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/6007/dscn8144g.jpg
http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/1993/dscn8145j.jpg
http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/4505/dscn8147g.jpg
http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/2765/dscn8148r.jpg
http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/6295/dscn8151t.jpg
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/4936/dscn8154.jpg
http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/9463/dscn8158.jpg
http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/8091/dscn8159r.jpg
http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/4087/dscn8160.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/7884/dscn8162f.jpg
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/1197/dscn8167.jpg
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/7148/dscn8170f.jpg
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/5752/dscn8174g.jpg
http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/8191/dscn8179s.jpg
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/9014/dscn8180.jpg
http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/9786/dscn8181q.jpg
http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5710/dscn8183.jpg
http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/2321/dscn8184.jpg
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/5360/dscn8186n.jpg
http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/2140/dscn8188.jpg
http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/8246/dscn8229z.jpg
http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/7810/dscn8230p.jpg
http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/3138/dscn8231.jpg
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/9713/dscn8234z.jpg
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/8097/dscn8235y.jpg
http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/1549/dscn8236w.jpg
http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/176/dscn8238.jpg
http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/8569/dscn8245.jpg
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/9193/dscn8246q.jpg
http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/7816/dscn8247d.jpg
http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/1926/dscn8253r.jpg
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/7656/dscn8255.jpg
http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/4430/dscn8257.jpg
http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/952/dscn8264e.jpg
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/669/dscn8267rf.jpg
http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/5602/dscn8270c.jpg
http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/945/dscn8271u.jpg
http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/7892/dscn8272.jpg
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/6522/dscn8327.jpg
http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/4356/dscn8328x.jpg
http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/5554/dscn8330o.jpg
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/8955/dscn8332.jpg
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/7469/dscn8333.jpg
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/958/dscn8334g.jpg
http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/2149/dscn8335.jpg
http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/1162/dscn8338h.jpg
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/1933/dscn8339q.jpg
http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/3717/dscn8342m.jpg

i like this.

#309 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:30 am

Question...330pm still not turning..at what point should Okinawa be like uh oh could get alot worst here?

phwxenthusiast · #310 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:10 am

phwxenthusiast wrote:i don't know, i mean it's ingesting too much dry air... yeah the eye and the immediate areas look good but the surrounds still sorting it out it seems... i'll give this one more burst of intensification tomorrow though... just my opinion

okay maybe i spoke too soon... :roll:

Infdidoll · #311 Postby **Infdidoll** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:29 am

phwxenthusiast wrote:
phwxenthusiast wrote:i don't know, i mean it's ingesting too much dry air... yeah the eye and the immediate areas look good but the surrounds still sorting it out it seems... i'll give this one more burst of intensification tomorrow though... just my opinion

okay maybe i spoke too soon...

LOL...typical afternoon/early evening intensification going on, right now. Ma-On was ingesting dry air earlier. You're not crazy. I saw it on satellite, too, and she was weakening a good clip earlier. :wink:

I'll back you up on that one!

Stormy - Streamline analysis charts seem to reflect the possibility of it moving NW at any time...looks like it has been making small movements that way, but hasn't really taken off yet. I'm still waiting along with you.

Of interest to note, looks like someone out there got in trouble for making personal forecasts about this storm: http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_ ... 1107150024

Interesting article because I had no idea you could be fined for this if affiliated with a weather prediction agency. Makes sense, but now I know why some of those affiliated with agencies are reluctant to say too much and why the site disclaimer can save your butt if you are a careerist, especially if you make predictions vehemently disagreeing with your agency. :eek:

Make sure you use the disclaimer, guys. I LOVE reading the personal insights, but would hate to see any of this happen to the professionals kind enough to share their opinions.

Maybe we should have an IDIOT tag, too. "I'm an idiot who likes to predict ridiculous end-of-the-world scenerios which never play out. Please take this personal forecast with a grain of salt." We can call it a Harold Camping tag.

#312 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:51 am

Infdidoll wrote:LOL...typical afternoon/early evening intensification going on, right now. Ma-On was ingesting dry air earlier. You're not crazy. I saw it on satellite, too, and she was weakening a good clip earlier. I'll back you up on that one!

Stormy - Streamline analysis charts seem to reflect the possibility of it moving NW at any time...looks like it has been making small movements that way, but hasn't really taken off yet. I'm still waiting along with you.

Of interest to note, looks like someone out there got in trouble for making personal forecasts about this storm: http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_ ... 1107150024

Interesting article because I had no idea you could be fined for this if affiliated with a weather prediction agency. Makes sense, but now I know why some of those affiliated with agencies are reluctant to say too much and why the site disclaimer can save your butt if you are a careerist, especially if you make predictions vehemently disagreeing with your agency. Make sure you use the disclaimer, guys. I LOVE reading the personal insights, but would hate to see any of this happen to the professionals kind enough to share their opinions.

Maybe we should have an IDIOT tag, too. "I'm an idiot who likes to predict ridiculous end-of-the-world scenerios which never play out. Please take this personal forecast with a grain of salt." We can call it a Harold Camping tag.

I wonder if that's the guy I've seen on the mainland China typhoon forum (and I think on here.) He developed his own typhoon forecasting model and often posts results. All sounds a bit heavy - then again Taiwan does have some daft laws like it's illegal to go surfing if there's a typhoon lol

Ma-on cranking now, looks like a beauty on Guam vis. ECMWF 00z going for a big hit on Kyushu and JMA taking it pretty close!

phwxenthusiast · #313 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:57 am

Infdidoll wrote:LOL...typical afternoon/early evening intensification going on, right now. Ma-On was ingesting dry air earlier. You're not crazy. I saw it on satellite, too, and she was weakening a good clip earlier. I'll back you up on that one!

Stormy - Streamline analysis charts seem to reflect the possibility of it moving NW at any time...looks like it has been making small movements that way, but hasn't really taken off yet. I'm still waiting along with you.

Of interest to note, looks like someone out there got in trouble for making personal forecasts about this storm: http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_ ... 1107150024

Interesting article because I had no idea you could be fined for this if affiliated with a weather prediction agency. Makes sense, but now I know why some of those affiliated with agencies are reluctant to say too much and why the site disclaimer can save your butt if you are a careerist, especially if you make predictions vehemently disagreeing with your agency. Make sure you use the disclaimer, guys. I LOVE reading the personal insights, but would hate to see any of this happen to the professionals kind enough to share their opinions.

Maybe we should have an IDIOT tag, too. "I'm an idiot who likes to predict ridiculous end-of-the-world scenerios which never play out. Please take this personal forecast with a grain of salt." We can call it a Harold Camping tag.

thanks, yeah never really had that sort of "perfect conditions" that we sometimes see in rapidly intensifying typhoons, maybe it's good news for Japan...

i mean look at the IR right now...

but as i said, i'll probably give this storm one more day for intensifying; the Euro is predicting to peak just before landfall anyway so maybe there is still time left... my personal forecasts only...

lol don't wanna end up like that guy you posted... then again, i feel sorry for him, never knew such law exists wow!!!

Typhoon Hunter wrote:
I wonder if that's the guy I've seen on the mainland China typhoon forum (and I think on here.) He developed his own typhoon forecasting model and often posts results. All sounds a bit heavy - then again Taiwan does have some daft laws like it's illegal to go surfing if there's a typhoon lol

Ma-on cranking now, looks like a beauty on Guam vis. ECMWF 00z going for a big hit on Kyushu and JMA taking it pretty close!

oh man, that guy!!?!??! yeah he used to post his own model's runs, quite cool if you ask me, but man such a shame..

BriManG35 · #314 Postby **BriManG35** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:14 am

euro6208 wrote:
BriManG35 wrote::rarrow:
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/7641/dscn8347m.jpg
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/6295/dscn8139.jpg
http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/2703/dscn8142s.jpg
http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/6007/dscn8144g.jpg
http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/1993/dscn8145j.jpg
http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/4505/dscn8147g.jpg
http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/2765/dscn8148r.jpg
http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/6295/dscn8151t.jpg
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/4936/dscn8154.jpg
http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/9463/dscn8158.jpg
http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/8091/dscn8159r.jpg
http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/4087/dscn8160.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/7884/dscn8162f.jpg
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/1197/dscn8167.jpg
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/7148/dscn8170f.jpg
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/5752/dscn8174g.jpg
http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/8191/dscn8179s.jpg
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/9014/dscn8180.jpg
http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/9786/dscn8181q.jpg
http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5710/dscn8183.jpg
http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/2321/dscn8184.jpg
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/5360/dscn8186n.jpg
http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/2140/dscn8188.jpg
http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/8246/dscn8229z.jpg
http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/7810/dscn8230p.jpg
http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/3138/dscn8231.jpg
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/9713/dscn8234z.jpg
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/8097/dscn8235y.jpg
http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/1549/dscn8236w.jpg
http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/176/dscn8238.jpg
http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/8569/dscn8245.jpg
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/9193/dscn8246q.jpg
http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/7816/dscn8247d.jpg
http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/1926/dscn8253r.jpg
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/7656/dscn8255.jpg
http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/4430/dscn8257.jpg
http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/952/dscn8264e.jpg
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/669/dscn8267rf.jpg
http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/5602/dscn8270c.jpg
http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/945/dscn8271u.jpg
http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/7892/dscn8272.jpg
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/6522/dscn8327.jpg
http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/4356/dscn8328x.jpg
http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/5554/dscn8330o.jpg
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/8955/dscn8332.jpg
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/7469/dscn8333.jpg
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/958/dscn8334g.jpg
http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/2149/dscn8335.jpg
http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/1162/dscn8338h.jpg
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/1933/dscn8339q.jpg
http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/3717/dscn8342m.jpg

i like this.

thanks :p

BriManG35 · #315 Postby **BriManG35** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:22 am

What is the easiest way to post pictures and or videos on here?..

some more photos I have but was a hassle having to post them on image shack and then posting links for them here..wish I could just post multiple photo images that I have saved from my desktop instead of links from image shack..

:rarrow:

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4797/dscn8383m.jpg
http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/7810/dscn8385.jpg
http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/7506/dscn8387.jpg
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/811/dscn8389d.jpg
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/1663/dscn8392.jpg
http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/3531/dscn8393.jpg
http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/1417/dscn8401.jpg
http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/2509/dscn8404.jpg
http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/7728/dscn8405m.jpg
http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/149/dscn8406.jpg
http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/1365/dscn8410j.jpg
http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/6360/dscn8414.jpg
http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/8381/guamwv.jpg
http://img803.imageshack.us/img803/3757/rgb.jpg
http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/6576/rgbjhkj.jpg
http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/5732/49886721.jpg

#316 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:48 am

BriManG35 wrote:What is the easiest way to post pictures and or videos on here?..

some more photos I have but was a hassle having to post them on image shack and then posting links for them here..wish I could just post multiple photo images that I have saved from my desktop instead of links from image shack..

Normally just a couple of sat images or images of note are enough otherwise the pages will take ages to load especially for those with slower connections. Imageshack has a forum embed code when you upload an image.

apocalypt-flyer · #317 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 4:05 am

Wouldn't it be wise to install a spoiler tag possibility for the boards? That was you could just still post tons of pictures in one post without slowing down the loading process at all.

Anyways, except for the NW quad Ma-On is looking good.

I don't like the supposed forecast track too much tho, a jog to the left or the right beyond 19/00 UTC could make a massive difference. Gonna be interesting to see how the agencies handle it.

#318 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 7:48 am

Looks like Ma-on is running into a number of challenges IMHO.

1) Biggest problem is that a TUTT is positioned ahead of Ma-on relative to its track and an anti-cyclone is behind it. It will be running into sinking air and a lower-height tropopause. This will compress the PV column vertically and push it out radially thus spinning it down.

2) Outflow looks bad. Never really got a good poleward outflow channel. Usually, TC's in this area are noted for their well developed outflow channels. This usually happens later in the season and is a big reason they turn into monsters.

3) Dry air is pinching off boundary-layer moisture feed from the SW.

This maybe as hot as we see the core get.

euro6208 · #319 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 9:47 am

ever since ma-on gave birth, so many negatives affected this storm like the tutt cell, upper level troughing, subsidence, and now wind shear. if this was august, sept, october, november, and december, it will be different.

#320 Postby **supercane** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 9:52 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 21.9N 137.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 550NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 25.0N 133.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 181200UTC 29.0N 131.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 191200UTC 32.6N 133.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 201200UTC 33.9N 138.4E 240NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
120HF 211200UTC 35.1N 145.2E 300NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 137.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.5N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.4N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 32.4N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 34.3N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 34.4N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 136.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)//
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MA-ON HAS
BEGUN TO TURN POLEWARD IN THE INITIAL STAGE OF WHAT WILL BE A TWO-
DAY CHURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE LATEST FIX, THE 24
HOUR NET MOVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS NOW
VEERED TO 290. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY AND
STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO FOR SEVERAL DAYS, HAS BEEN
GUIDING TY 08W STEADILY ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE LATEST
SOUNDING FROM NAZE (NORTHERN RYUKUS) SHOWS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES
ALOFT, WHILE THOSE FROM FUKUOKA AND KAGOSHIMA (KYUSHU) SHOW
SOUTHERLIES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 5900 METERS. COMBINED, THESE
INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOW
OVER KYUSHU. THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND TILT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PROCESS, WHERE A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING OUT
OF THE HIMALAYAS CAN BE SEEN MERGING WITH A WEAK FINGER OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR FRONT JET OVER THE GULF OF BOHAI.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS MUCH IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AS A FRAGMENTED TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FILLS, BUT SUPPRESSION CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE EYEWALL IS CONTINUOUS AROUND THE LLCC BUT
REMAINS THIN OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH A 160708Z SSMI
37GHZ IMAGES SHOWS THICK, WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING AROUND THE LLCC, A
160837Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
VIGOROUS, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS EASED TO APPROXIMATELY 10
KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 115 FROM
KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 08W WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. TY 08W WILL REMAIN IN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUN FROM 29 THROUGH
31 DEGREES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. PEAK
INTENSITY WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 36, JUST BEFORE MA-ON CRESTS THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ALONG THE 29TH LATITUDE. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER
THE STORM CRESTS THE RIDGE AXIS. ALL AIDS CROSS 30 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE BETWEEN 132 AND 134 DEGREES EAST, HOWEVER. THE JTWC
FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
JTWC TRACK MOVES EAST OF CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING PULLED WESTWARD
BY THE BAROTROPIC MODEL AND LATER NORTHEAST TURNS BY JGSM AND ECMWF.
C. TYPHOON 08W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND TRACK SEAWARD OF THE
KANTO PLAIN BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 108. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
TRACK ARE WARM ALL THE WAY THROUGH COASTAL JAPAN, AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL NOT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL NEAR TAU 96. THEREFORE,
LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SHIKOKU AND THEN HONSHU
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEAKENING MECHANISM, ALLOWING TY 08W TO REMAIN
AT GREATER THAN TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT PASSES THE KANTO PLAIN.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK, WITH THE EASTERNMOST
MODELS BOUNCING THE STORM OFF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SHIKOKU BEFORE
TURNING IT HARD TO THE RIGHT, AND THE WESTERNMOST MODELS JUST
MISSING THE WAKAYAMA PENINSULA. ALL GUIDANCE HAS ALIGNED WITH A
PASSAGE SEAWARD OF THE KANTO. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER TAU 96, PUTTING TY 09W ON A DOWNWARD INTENSITY
TREND AS IT PASSES THE KANTO.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 161209
A. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)
B. 16/1132Z
C. 22.0N
D. 137.1E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 8NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
LG YIELDS A CF AND E# OF 5.0. PT AND MET YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT
AND MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0708Z 21.4N 138.0E SSMS
16/0837Z 21.5N 137.7E SSMS
16/1011Z 21.6N 137.3E SSMS
UEHARA

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