ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[HokieNav]

If Katia follows her current track, what kind of effects will the Outer Banks see and when? It looks like she'll pass by here on Thursday night/Friday morning. Does a hurricane push some of the high seas out in front of it, or is there a delay where the effects won't be felt ashore until after the storm passes?

Reason for asking is that we're currently sitting in Duck, NC on vacation this week, and the surf has been pounding since we got here on Sunday (it even knocked me sideways yesterday and screwed up my knee pretty good). I can't imagine it going on like this all week, but it looks like it's going to be at least this bad (or get worse) through the rest of the week.

[Typhoon Hunter]

If Katia follows her current track, what kind of effects will the Outer Banks see and when? It looks like she'll pass by here on Thursday night/Friday morning. Does a hurricane push some of the high seas out in front of it, or is there a delay where the effects won't be felt ashore until after the storm passes?

Reason for asking is that we're currently sitting in Duck, NC on vacation this week, and the surf has been pounding since we got here on Sunday (it even knocked me sideways yesterday and screwed up my knee pretty good). I can't imagine it going on like this all week, but it looks like it's going to be at least this bad (or get worse) through the rest of the week.

Sorry to hear about your knee. It's probably best to stay out of the water given the NHC are already mentioning threat of dangerous rip currents along the east coast. Worst waves likely as Katia makes closest point of approach on Thurs and Fri. Probably a good idea to consult the local NWS warnings too.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0833.shtml

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[GCANE]

.

How far was the earthquake from the hurricane's path ?

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... merica.php

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 005pl2.php


.

I wouldn't doubt the quake may have been triggered by Katia.

Also, some solar activity under way.

[GCANE]

.

How far was the earthquake from the hurricane's path ?

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... merica.php

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 005pl2.php


.

I wouldn't doubt the quake may have been triggered by Katia.

Also, some solar activity under way.

The 5.3 quake was directly under the eye.

Seen this effect before with TCs in the Pacific under active faults.

http://www.earthquakesummary.info/

[clfenwi]

Standing by for the new POD to be released... from the lack of HDOBSs, it appears the WC-130 mission was scratched. However, the G-IV mission did launch . The Hurricane Research Division blogdescribes it as a mission to "sample the environment around Katia and target arc clouds". Flight plan is displyed below

[clfenwi]

New TCPOD released. No mention of today's scheduled recon flight being canceled. Puts one mission on the docket for tomorrow along with another G-IV research mission.

NOUS42 KNHC 061515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 06 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-098
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 07/1700Z
B. AFXXX 0212A KATIA
C. 07/1330Z
D. 30.5N 66.5W
E. 07/1630Z TO 07/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 07/1500Z
D. 20.5N 92.0W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A SECOND MISSION
INTO THE SUSPECT AREA AT 08/1800Z.
4. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION FOR HURRICANE
KATIA TAKING OFF AT 07/1100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[clfenwi]

And recon is in the air

URNT15 KNHC 061523
AF304 0112A KATIA HDOB 00 20110906
150930 1940N 06608W 3927 07733 0420 -175 -367 267007 007 005 000 00
151000 1942N 06609W 3923 07740 0420 -175 -366 262009 009 007 000 00
151030 1945N 06610W 3930 07728 0419 -175 -371 261009 009 006 000 00
151100 1947N 06611W 3923 07739 0420 -175 -372 259007 008 007 000 00
151130 1950N 06613W 3927 07731 0418 -175 -358 254006 007 007 000 00
151200 1952N 06614W 3924 07738 0419 -175 -345 241006 006 009 000 00
151230 1954N 06615W 3929 07730 0419 -175 -346 246007 007 008 000 00
151300 1957N 06617W 3926 07737 0420 -175 -351 249006 007 009 000 00
151330 1959N 06618W 3925 07738 0421 -175 -347 236006 006 008 001 00
151400 2002N 06619W 3926 07739 0423 -175 -341 241007 008 008 000 00
151430 2004N 06621W 3926 07737 0423 -176 -333 245008 008 010 000 00
151500 2007N 06622W 3926 07739 0423 -179 -324 240008 009 009 000 00
151530 2009N 06623W 3927 07738 0424 -180 -323 246008 009 009 000 00
151600 2012N 06625W 3926 07741 0425 -180 -321 247008 009 010 000 00
151630 2014N 06626W 3926 07741 0425 -180 -334 249008 009 010 000 00
151700 2016N 06627W 3925 07742 0425 -180 -335 244007 009 011 000 00
151730 2019N 06629W 3926 07742 0426 -180 -311 239007 007 010 000 00
151800 2021N 06630W 3926 07741 0426 -180 -287 245007 008 010 000 00
151830 2024N 06631W 3926 07741 0426 -180 -295 242007 008 012 000 00
151900 2026N 06633W 3926 07742 0427 -180 -298 248008 008 012 000 00

[tobol.7uno]

They have just left St. Kroix headed north toward Katia. We will found out how strong she really is in a little while!

[toto]

If Katia follows her current track, what kind of effects will the Outer Banks see and when?
It looks like she'll pass by here on Thursday night/Friday morning.

Obama will address a joint session of congress Thursday night.
What are the odds of Katia crashing that party ?


.

[clfenwi]

I reckon they'll be descending in ~45 mins. Probably won't be able to keep up with the obs, so they're up for grabs for whoever may want to take over.

URNT15 KNHC 061539
AF304 0112A KATIA HDOB 06 20110906
152930 2116N 06700W 3926 07745 0430 -175 -354 259013 013 014 000 00
153000 2119N 06702W 3925 07747 0431 -175 -349 261014 014 015 000 00
153030 2121N 06703W 3926 07746 0430 -175 -348 263013 014 014 000 00
153100 2124N 06704W 3927 07744 0429 -175 -351 260014 014 013 000 00
153130 2126N 06706W 3925 07746 0429 -175 -347 260014 014 017 000 00
153200 2128N 06707W 3926 07742 0429 -175 -343 261014 014 014 000 00
153230 2131N 06708W 3926 07745 0428 -175 -349 260014 015 015 000 00
153300 2133N 06710W 3926 07741 0427 -174 -358 263016 017 016 000 00
153330 2136N 06711W 3926 07741 0427 -174 -363 266016 016 012 000 00
153400 2138N 06712W 3926 07742 0427 -175 -352 262015 016 011 000 00
153430 2141N 06713W 3926 07741 0427 -177 -336 261017 018 018 000 00
153500 2143N 06713W 3926 07740 0426 -178 -339 265019 019 016 000 00
153530 2146N 06714W 3926 07741 0425 -176 -352 263018 018 015 000 00
153600 2149N 06714W 3926 07740 0425 -175 -345 262018 018 017 000 00
153630 2151N 06715W 3925 07741 0424 -176 -335 262019 019 017 000 00
153700 2154N 06715W 3926 07739 0424 -175 -342 260019 020 017 000 00
153730 2157N 06716W 3926 07738 0423 -178 -351 260019 020 017 000 00
153800 2159N 06716W 3926 07739 0423 -175 -363 260020 021 018 000 00
153830 2202N 06717W 3926 07740 0424 -180 -368 265017 018 018 000 00
153900 2205N 06717W 3926 07738 0424 -179 -363 264017 018 016 000 00

[toto]

.

How far was the earthquake from the hurricane's path ?

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... merica.php

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 005pl2.php


.

I wouldn't doubt the quake may have been triggered by Katia.

Also, some solar activity under way.

The 5.3 quake was directly under the eye.

Seen this effect before with TCs in the Pacific under active faults.

http://www.earthquakesummary.info/

The reason I asked is because I noticed several earthquakes near the track of Hurricane Ivan.


.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Normally I'm very skeptical about relationships such as TCs and quakes however there is certainly a noticeable correlation between landfalling typhoons on Taiwan and minor quakes there. Studies have even taken place between relationship of landfalling typhoons and so called "slow earthquakes."

Off topic I know but it's an observed phenomenon certainly here in the Wpac!

[clfenwi]

Still cruising

URNT15 KNHC 061559
AF304 0112A KATIA HDOB 08 20110906
154930 2301N 06729W 3926 07729 0413 -175 -429 261019 019 020 000 00
155000 2303N 06729W 3926 07726 0411 -175 -429 260019 019 020 000 00
155030 2306N 06730W 3925 07727 0410 -175 -430 261019 020 020 000 00
155100 2309N 06731W 3927 07723 0409 -180 -430 265022 022 020 000 00
155130 2311N 06731W 3926 07725 0408 -179 -430 262022 023 021 000 00
155200 2314N 06732W 3926 07721 0407 -179 -428 263022 023 022 000 00
155230 2317N 06732W 3926 07724 0406 -178 -427 264022 023 021 000 00
155300 2319N 06733W 3921 07731 0407 -180 -427 265022 023 023 000 00
155330 2322N 06733W 3926 07720 0406 -175 -428 266022 022 023 000 00
155400 2325N 06734W 3926 07720 0406 -176 -429 266023 023 023 000 00
155430 2327N 06734W 3927 07718 0404 -178 -430 265024 024 024 000 00
155500 2330N 06735W 3926 07720 0404 -177 -430 266024 024 023 000 00
155530 2332N 06735W 3930 07711 0403 -175 -430 267024 024 022 000 00
155600 2335N 06736W 3923 07725 0404 -178 -430 269024 025 023 000 00
155630 2338N 06737W 3930 07712 0403 -179 -427 270025 026 023 000 00
155700 2340N 06737W 3925 07723 0405 -179 -418 270025 025 024 000 00
155730 2343N 06738W 3926 07719 0405 -175 -419 271024 025 023 000 00
155800 2346N 06738W 3926 07720 0405 -175 -424 274023 023 023 000 00
155830 2348N 06739W 3927 07717 0404 -175 -429 277023 024 024 000 00
155900 2351N 06739W 3926 07718 0403 -175 -432 280024 025 024 000 00

[clfenwi]

Starting to descend

URNT15 KNHC 061609
AF304 0112A KATIA HDOB 09 20110906
155930 2353N 06740W 3922 07725 0402 -175 -434 278024 024 023 000 00
160000 2356N 06740W 3929 07712 0402 -179 -432 276026 027 023 000 00
160030 2359N 06741W 3922 07727 0403 -178 -413 278026 027 024 000 00
160100 2401N 06741W 3930 07712 0403 -181 -400 275027 028 025 000 00
160130 2404N 06742W 3923 07724 0404 -183 -385 273028 028 025 000 00
160200 2407N 06743W 3927 07717 0403 -186 -366 272029 029 025 000 00
160230 2409N 06743W 3926 07719 0403 -185 -353 268029 029 026 000 00
160300 2412N 06744W 3926 07717 0403 -180 -363 272027 028 026 000 00
160330 2414N 06744W 3926 07718 0402 -176 -389 273026 027 026 000 03
160400 2417N 06744W 3929 07711 0401 -173 -411 272026 026 027 000 03
160430 2420N 06744W 3926 07718 0402 -174 -428 272026 026 028 000 00
160500 2422N 06743W 3927 07714 0401 -172 -440 277025 026 028 000 00
160530 2425N 06743W 3926 07718 0401 -174 -448 282024 024 028 000 00
160600 2428N 06742W 3923 07722 0400 -175 -454 280025 025 029 000 00
160630 2430N 06742W 3930 07708 0398 -175 -459 276025 025 029 000 00
160700 2433N 06741W 3922 07721 0398 -175 -462 276025 026 029 000 00
160730 2436N 06741W 3927 07710 0399 -178 -464 275026 026 029 000 00
160800 2439N 06740W 4025 07540 0398 -165 -463 278026 026 030 000 03
160830 2441N 06739W 4247 07133 0374 -138 -447 276028 028 /// /// 03
160900 2444N 06739W 4478 06725 0354 -111 -376 271030 031 /// /// 03

[dwsqos2]

I'm not making a recon discussion thread for this, but it appears that there are comm problems...again.

[clfenwi]

Haven't had any HDOBS since that set; one RECCO ob sent since then

URNT11 KNHC 061633
97779 16274 30260 67418 30500 31046 09068 /3093
43140
RMK AF304 0112A KATIA OB 03
SWS = 40 KTS

decoded

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 16:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Katia (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Tuesday, 16:27Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 26.0N 67.4W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... &lon=-67.4
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 46 knots (From the NW at ~ 52.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 9°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 6°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,093 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 310° at 40 knots (From the NW at ~ 46.0 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0mph)

[ROCK]

.

How far was the earthquake from the hurricane's path ?

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... merica.php

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 005pl2.php


.

I wouldn't doubt the quake may have been triggered by Katia.

Also, some solar activity under way.

The 5.3 quake was directly under the eye.

Seen this effect before with TCs in the Pacific under active faults.

http://www.earthquakesummary.info/

interesting.....you see this is why I come to 2K for the last 8 yrs...I learn something new everyday...

[clfenwi]

Just in time for the center pass, southwest to northeast

URNT15 KNHC 061659
AF304 0112A KATIA HDOB 14 20110906
164930 2654N 06626W 6961 02866 9657 +149 +119 303063 065 054 000 00
165000 2655N 06625W 6976 02839 9642 +154 +121 304057 059 050 000 00
165030 2657N 06624W 6967 02842 9626 +161 +123 302050 053 043 000 00
165100 2658N 06622W 6965 02841 9626 +155 +126 300042 044 036 001 00
165130 2700N 06621W 6970 02830 9621 +154 +128 299036 039 032 000 03
165200 2701N 06620W 6964 02830 9609 +158 +130 303029 032 025 000 00
165230 2703N 06620W 6961 02828 9606 +154 +131 294027 028 021 001 00
165300 2704N 06619W 6974 02810 9594 +164 +132 293023 026 017 000 00
165330 2706N 06618W 6962 02821 9598 +156 +133 312016 018 017 001 03
165400 2708N 06617W 6973 02801 9589 +161 +134 314015 016 015 000 03
165430 2709N 06615W 6970 02806 9592 +156 +136 319009 013 013 000 03
165500 2710N 06614W 6969 02805 9592 +155 +136 044003 005 017 000 03
165530 2711N 06612W 6974 02801 9594 +154 +137 105007 009 015 000 00
165600 2712N 06611W 6961 02816 9593 +154 +136 126013 018 013 001 00
165630 2714N 06610W 6967 02810 9605 +144 +136 139024 026 017 000 00
165700 2715N 06608W 6968 02811 9619 +135 //// 141024 026 025 001 01
165730 2716N 06607W 6966 02816 9623 +134 //// 140028 029 029 002 01
165800 2718N 06605W 6966 02819 9622 +137 +133 140031 032 029 001 00
165830 2719N 06604W 6968 02819 9642 +121 //// 140035 037 030 004 05
165900 2720N 06603W 6967 02822 9644 +116 //// 132042 044 039 008 01

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 061709
AF304 0112A KATIA HDOB 15 20110906
165930 2721N 06601W 6970 02823 9635 +136 +119 130049 050 053 003 00
170000 2722N 06600W 6966 02833 9657 +121 +113 133054 058 061 018 00
170030 2724N 06559W 6967 02840 9682 +107 //// 136058 060 063 014 01
170100 2725N 06557W 6965 02851 9675 +122 +100 136068 069 061 012 00
170130 2726N 06556W 6970 02850 9682 +124 +096 138069 070 060 007 00
170200 2727N 06554W 6970 02861 9696 +120 +102 142070 071 061 006 00
170230 2729N 06553W 6965 02878 9702 +124 +111 140066 067 059 004 00
170300 2730N 06552W 6967 02884 9721 +101 //// 141068 070 058 004 01
170330 2731N 06550W 6971 02886 9735 +107 //// 141072 076 057 004 01
170400 2732N 06549W 6969 02897 9740 +112 //// 139077 078 058 002 01
170430 2733N 06547W 6967 02906 9749 +111 //// 138076 076 057 000 01
170500 2735N 06546W 6966 02916 9758 +109 //// 140076 077 062 001 01
170530 2736N 06545W 6969 02918 9770 +107 //// 142077 078 066 002 01
170600 2737N 06543W 6968 02927 9781 +105 //// 144079 080 070 004 01
170630 2738N 06542W 6964 02938 9787 +104 //// 146080 081 071 005 05
170700 2739N 06540W 6964 02941 //// +090 //// 153081 083 071 010 01
170730 2740N 06539W 6973 02939 //// +089 //// 156082 082 074 008 01
170800 2741N 06537W 6962 02959 //// +090 //// 159082 083 075 007 01
170830 2742N 06535W 6965 02958 //// +087 //// 162086 087 075 010 01
170900 2743N 06534W 6974 02952 //// +084 //// 165092 097 076 010 01
$$