ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[OURAGAN]

Best track at 600z, 10,7N/35,2W

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL goes to a Tropical Storm just south of PR. HWRF does not do anything at the 06z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Okay, here goes. I hope this is not considered off-topic, and I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but I'm curious. As of right now, there are three registered members besides me on the active storms discussion. There was one other besides me at Talkin' Tropics. There have been many members who have (repeatedly and vigoursly) insisted that their interest (and everyone else's interest should be) in tracking and discussing tropical systems whether they are a landfall threat or not. My question: So, where is everyone? I know that all we have right now are two possible systems, but even when Maria was active it was like this. As one who doesn't know enough to make too many comments about what is going on in the tropics I mostly content myself with reading others more in the know. Right now, I could get more information about the tropics from the weather section of my newspaper. What's going on here?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 98, 2011091812, , BEST, 0, 110N, 352W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[ouragans]

this is just north of the previous position. it this linked to 97L canibalization? what about the vicinity of 99L?

[Extratropical94]

12Z Models - waaayyy more conservative in intensity:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 181220

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110918 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110918  1200   110919  0000   110919  1200   110920  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  35.2W   11.8N  36.3W   12.5N  37.7W   13.3N  39.6W
BAMD    11.0N  35.2W   11.7N  35.9W   12.4N  36.8W   13.2N  38.0W
BAMM    11.0N  35.2W   11.6N  36.3W   12.1N  37.4W   12.7N  38.8W
LBAR    11.0N  35.2W   11.5N  35.7W   12.3N  36.9W   13.5N  38.9W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110920  1200   110921  1200   110922  1200   110923  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  42.2W   16.1N  48.4W   17.9N  55.6W   19.5N  62.4W
BAMD    14.2N  39.7W   16.4N  43.4W   18.0N  46.3W   18.7N  47.9W
BAMM    13.3N  40.7W   14.7N  45.3W   15.9N  50.4W   16.9N  55.3W
LBAR    15.0N  41.0W   18.7N  45.8W   22.6N  49.1W   25.5N  51.0W
SHIP        46KTS          43KTS          32KTS          27KTS
DSHP        46KTS          43KTS          32KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  35.2W DIRCUR =  20DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  10.4N LONM12 =  35.2W DIRM12 =  31DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 =  35.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[dwsqos2]

The gfs is trending weaker with this and every other disturbance; that tends to be a bad sign if one is hoping for a TC.

I can't decide which non-positive ENSO season is my most hated: this one or 2007.

[cycloneye]

This is the predict team analizing Pouch P28L/98L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 091800.txt

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P28L.html

SYNOPSIS 2011091800

P28L … 98L
9N, 37W
700 hPa

Using a phase speed of zero, or close to zero. Models keep 98L stationary, or even moving eastward for the first two days. I want to make sure that I am tracking the correct pouch during the critical early period, especially given the potential interaction with nearby 97L to the east. The subsequent westward motion, then is not being accurately depicted. The pouch position during the following three days should be about 30-60 miles farther north than is plotted.


ECMWF: Consistent with yesterday: Quasi-stationary as an ITCZ circulation for two days, then moves westward. Phase speed is based upon the first two slow days, so the position on Days 3-5 is a little too far south. The approaching P29L/97L does not appear to merge with or be absorbed by P28L/98L; rather 97L just seems to dissipate.

GFS: Very similar to ECMWF.

UKMET: Similar to ECMWF & GFS, but moves westward faster starting on Day 3. (So the position then is shifted even more south than it should be.)

NOGAPS: Similar to UKMET, with an erroneous southward shift of the positions on Days 3-5. Hovmoller of v700 does not portray the early stationary motion. Used a phase speed of zero.

HWRF-GEN: Similar to ECMWF and GFS.


ECMWF 0.0 v700 120h
GFS 0.0 v700 120h
UKMET -0.9 v700 120h
NOGAPS 0.0 v700 120h
HWGEN 0.0 v700 120h

[floridasun78]

it look like invest 99 affecting invest 98 untill 99 move more alway we could see weak 98

[gmr548]

Dear 98L,

Our coast is nice this time of year. Just a suggestion.

Love,

Texas

[Extratropical94]

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

168 gfs shows nothing anywhere.

[janswizard]

Okay, here goes. I hope this is not considered off-topic, and I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but I'm curious. As of right now, there are three registered members besides me on the active storms discussion. There was one other besides me at Talkin' Tropics. There have been many members who have (repeatedly and vigoursly) insisted that their interest (and everyone else's interest should be) in tracking and discussing tropical systems whether they are a landfall threat or not. My question: So, where is everyone? I know that all we have right now are two possible systems, but even when Maria was active it was like this. As one who doesn't know enough to make too many comments about what is going on in the tropics I mostly content myself with reading others more in the know. Right now, I could get more information about the tropics from the weather section of my newspaper. What's going on here?

I think it's too far away to get people's attention right now...

[CronkPSU]

Okay, here goes. I hope this is not considered off-topic, and I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but I'm curious. As of right now, there are three registered members besides me on the active storms discussion. There was one other besides me at Talkin' Tropics. There have been many members who have (repeatedly and vigoursly) insisted that their interest (and everyone else's interest should be) in tracking and discussing tropical systems whether they are a landfall threat or not. My question: So, where is everyone? I know that all we have right now are two possible systems, but even when Maria was active it was like this. As one who doesn't know enough to make too many comments about what is going on in the tropics I mostly content myself with reading others more in the know. Right now, I could get more information about the tropics from the weather section of my newspaper. What's going on here?

well you did post at 8:15 on a Sunday morning...not a lot of net traffic at ANY site that day and time...I see at least 20 people logged on right now

[Extratropical94]

Dear 98L,

Our coast is nice this time of year. Just a suggestion.

Love,

Texas

Like!

No seriously, you're right. Texas N E E D S a rainmaker storm immediately, Don was a laugh and both Lee and Nate refused to come anywhere near the TX coastline.
But as usual, the despair caused by drought combined with the current mid-September enthusiasm and hope for anything to brew down there might just kill the storm.
So far we've seen that hoping or preaching for tropical activity in a certain area doesn't really work.

[cycloneye]

Dear 98L,

Our coast is nice this time of year. Just a suggestion.

Love,

Texas

Like!

No seriously, you're right. Texas N E E D S a rainmaker storm immediately, Don was a laugh and both Lee and Nate refused to come anywhere near the TX coastline.
But as usual, the despair caused by drought combined with the current mid-September enthusiasm and hope for anything to brew down there might just kill the storm.
So far we've seen that hoping or preaching for tropical activity in a certain area doesn't really work.

To let know both posters,I moved these posts to the discussion thread from the models thread.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 98, 2011091818, , BEST, 0, 113N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 181819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110918 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110918  1800   110919  0600   110919  1800   110920  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.3N  35.8W   12.0N  36.9W   12.8N  38.4W   13.5N  40.4W
BAMD    11.3N  35.8W   11.8N  36.7W   12.4N  37.7W   13.0N  39.2W
BAMM    11.3N  35.8W   11.9N  36.9W   12.5N  38.0W   13.1N  39.5W
LBAR    11.3N  35.8W   11.9N  36.6W   13.0N  38.2W   14.3N  40.0W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          36KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110920  1800   110921  1800   110922  1800   110923  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  43.1W   15.8N  49.6W   17.1N  57.1W   18.2N  64.6W
BAMD    13.7N  40.9W   15.3N  44.9W   16.5N  48.7W   17.4N  51.8W
BAMM    13.8N  41.5W   15.0N  46.1W   16.0N  51.2W   17.0N  56.3W
LBAR    16.1N  42.3W   19.8N  46.5W   23.6N  48.8W   26.0N  49.3W
SHIP        38KTS          35KTS          29KTS          27KTS
DSHP        38KTS          35KTS          29KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.3N LONCUR =  35.8W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  10.7N LONM12 =  35.2W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  10.2N LONM24 =  35.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[southerngale]

Okay, here goes. I hope this is not considered off-topic, and I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but I'm curious. As of right now, there are three registered members besides me on the active storms discussion. There was one other besides me at Talkin' Tropics. There have been many members who have (repeatedly and vigoursly) insisted that their interest (and everyone else's interest should be) in tracking and discussing tropical systems whether they are a landfall threat or not. My question: So, where is everyone? I know that all we have right now are two possible systems, but even when Maria was active it was like this. As one who doesn't know enough to make too many comments about what is going on in the tropics I mostly content myself with reading others more in the know. Right now, I could get more information about the tropics from the weather section of my newspaper. What's going on here?

I think you already got a couple of good answers. You posted this at 8:15 on a Sunday morning (7:15 my time) and 98L is still pretty far out there. There are 50 people viewing the Active Storms forum at this moment and football is on. It's not surprising that a lot of people would be enjoying the football games and/or a Sunday afternoon with family or friends. We're not talking about a hurricane, tropical storm, or even a TD at this point. It's a code yellow invest and isn't currently threatening anyone. If signs continue to point toward development, so will the interest.
And to state the obvious... sure, some people's interest is in any system, whether it threaten land or not, but the overwhelming majority of people are only interested in a system that may affect them or someone they know. That's just the way it is and it isn't going to change anything to try and call people out for not having more interest. It is what it is.